CF Industries Holdings Inc

Mosaic is expected to report EPS of $0.28 in 1Q18, which would be a significant rise from its EPS of $0.04 in 1Q17.

Urea prices for the standard grade in the NOLA (New Orleans) region of the US and in Egypt saw the steepest weekly change last week.

Nitrogen fertilizer prices remained volatile on the back of the volatility in the input prices of natural gas.

Nineteen Wall Street analysts are covering CF Industries. They have a consensus mean rating of 2.7 on the stock with an overall “hold” recommendation as of January 10, 2018.

Natural gas is one of the key input components for gas-based nitrogen fertilizer producers (MOO)(MXI) such as CF Industries (CF), Terra Nitrogen (TNH), CVR Partners (UAN), and Nutrien (NTR).

In the week ending January 5, the prices for granular as well as prilled urea were broadly higher week-over-week.

Earnings per share Earlier, we discussed major agribusiness companies’ earnings, which have mostly fallen over the years. In 2018, their earnings are expected to rise. Next-12-month earnings As shown in the above chart, agribusiness companies’ NTM (next-12-month) EPS (earnings per share) are expected to improve year-over-year. FMC’s (FMC) EPS are expected rise 90% to $4.70, Agrium’s […]

In the earlier part of this series, we discussed how shipments impacted CF Industries’ (CF) sales. From our analysis, it’s clear that a rise in selling prices remains the most important growth catalyst for the company.

Performance comparison In our series Comparative Analysis of Fertilizer Companies’ 3Q17 Earnings, we compared fertilizer companies’ 3Q17 performance. However, as the agriculture business is seasonal, we should also look at annual trends for a complete picture.   Year-over-year sales In the above chart, we compare agribusiness companies’ sales over the last 12 months and the year prior. All […]

For the week of December 6–13, 2017, natural gas spot prices at Henry Hub were broadly lower, according to the EIA.

Mosaic (MOS) has had a disappointing year so far compared to PotashCorp (POT) and Agrium (AGU). MOS stock significantly underperformed the S&P 500.

Perhaps dividend yield is one of the most common starting points when screening for dividend stocks.

Among the companies that operate within the agriculture sector, FMC (FMC) has outperformed its peers with a total one-year return of 53.2% as of December 11, 2017.

Last week, which ended December 8, 2017, saw a slight rise in the Fertilizer Affordability Index issued by Mosaic (MOS).

Henry Hub (MOO) natural gas prices saw a negative week-over-week trend, a continuation of the trend from the previous week.

Last week, the average weekly natural gas prices were broadly lower week-over-week at the Henry Hub in the US (MOO).

Last week, urea prices at the Yuzhny location fell as much as 4.1% week-over-week to $256 per metric ton from $267 per metric ton a week ago.

Last week, the Fertilizer Affordability Index rose again week-over-week from 0.69x to 0.70x.

Last week continued to be a positive week for urea prices. Prices have risen lately as a result of excess capacities cooling off.

As on October 25, the consensus analyst rating for Mosaic stood at 3.0, which suggests an overall “hold” recommendation for the stock.

The natural gas prices at Henry Hub in the US fell 4.1% week-over-week from a weekly average of $2.96 per MMBtu to a weekly average of $2.84 per MMBtu.

We’re nearing the end of the year, and most agribusiness stocks have underperformed the benchmark indexes.

So far this year, Henry Hub natural gas prices have hovered around $3 per MMBtu (million British thermal units).

Last week, granular urea prices moved higher, which helped bring some relief to urea producers. But the falling global ammonia prices remained a challenge.

Not only did CF Industries’ earnings fall year-over-year (or YoY) in 1Q17, its margins were also significantly lower YoY. To understand why, let’s dig deeper into the cost curve.

Over the past five years, CF Industries’ (CF) gross and EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization) margins have contracted.

On June 9, Monsanto (MON) stock closed at $117.5 per share.

In recent years, agricultural fertilizer companies like PotashCorp (POT), Agrium (AGU), Israel Chemicals (ICL), and CF Industries (CF) have incurred higher capital expenditures.

Urea prices have fallen by an average of 14% annually over the past five years. The consistent fall has been due to falling energy costs, leading to lower production costs across the board.

In 4Q16, the average price of ammonia for the five producers in our chart fell by an average of 38%.

In 4Q16, the overall average nitrogen selling price fell 37.0% to $182 per ton, from $288 per ton in 4Q15.

PotashCorp (POT), which is currently trading at an EV-t0-EBITDA multiple of 15.0x, is trading far above its low point of 6.0x a year ago.

Energy as well as freight and handling can be the two biggest costs for nitrogen fertilizer production.

Fertilizers are commonly labeled using a convention that includes the amount of NPK available in the mix.

There’s a constant need to bring up the fertility levels necessary to grow crops, and that need is fulfilled by fertilizers.

Increasing crop yield on available farmland could be the best solution to the problem of increasing crop production.

The global soybean stock-to-use ratio for soybeans rose to ~25.1% in December 2016, as compared to 24.8% in November 2016.

Anthracite coal is used to produce nitrogen fertilizers. For the week ending November 18, average weekly anthracite coal prices in China rose 3.8%.

Unlike corn, the global soybean stock-to-use ratio is lower compared to the global stock-to-use ratio of 26.5% last year.

Producers in China primarily use coal as an input material to produce nitrogen, especially urea-based fertilizers. China is the world’s biggest urea exporter.

Nitrogen selling prices PotashCorp (POT) sells nitrogen fertilizers such as ammonia, urea, and nitrogen solutions. It competes with other natural gas–based nitrogen producers such as CF Industries (CF) and Terra Nitrogen (TNH), which primarily produce and sell nitrogen fertilizers. Agrium (AGU), which is a part of the PowerShares International Dividend Achievers ETF (PID), produces nitrogen fertilizers […]

FBGRX has had a below-average 2016 so far, placing seventh in our select peer group of 12 funds in terms of point-to-point returns.

The global stock-to-use ratio for soybeans rose 1.6% to ~23.5% in October—compared to 22% in September. Soybean’s ratio is lower than last year.

Demystifying the cost curve Earlier in this series, we saw that prices of nitrogen have fallen over the years, despite its significance in crop growth and feeding the vast population. The lower prices are due to a flatter cost curve, which we’ll explain in this part. Flat cost curve In the chart above, we compare a […]

Chinese producers primarily use coal to produce nitrogen, especially urea-based fertilizers, while producers in North America mostly rely on natural gas.

The current levels of ammonia prices at several locations are below their comparative levels last year.

Producers in China mainly use coal as an input material to produce nitrogen fertilizers, especially urea. China is impacted by price movements in coal.

For the week ending September 9, average weekly anthracite coal prices in China fell 4.2% to $81.1 per metric ton—compared to the previous week.

The global nitrogen fertilizer capacity is abundant, allowing it to fulfill the current market requirements. This has put pressure on nitrogen prices, which fell significantly over the past year.

While most North American producers use natural gas to produce nitrogen fertilizers, CVR Partners (UAN) mainly uses pet coke as a hydrogen source.