CF Industries Holdings Inc
Sales Drivers and What to Expect for Fertilizer Companies
The world has a problem that’s actually good for the fertilizer industry. This is the world’s population, which is ever-growing, as is food consumption.
Mosaic: Analysts’ Ratings and Target Price in November
While Mosaic’s target price increased in November, analysts’ recommendations remained unchanged month-over-month.
Fertilizer Stocks: Analysts’ Recommendations and Target Prices
The agribusiness sector has largely remained weak in 2018. The agribusiness sector gave up its gains last week.
Deere’s Agriculture and Turf Segment’s Margin Declined
Deere’s (DE) Agriculture and Turf Equipment segment reported revenues of $5.6 billion in the fourth quarter.
Fertilizer Affordability Improved Due to Higher Crop Prices
Last week, the Fertilizer Affordability Index, which is issued by Mosaic, declined to 0.83x from 0.85x a week ago.
Natural Gas Prices Were Favorable for Nitrogen Producers
For the week ending November 2, the natural gas prices at Henry Hub declined to $3.29 per MMBtu from $3.36 per MMBtu.
Urea Prices Continued to Fall Last Week
In the week ending November 2, urea prices continued to drop—a continuation of the trend we observed in the past few weeks.
Fertilizer Prices for the Week Ending November 2
The week ending November 2 was broadly positive for the agribusiness sector. The VanEck Vectors Agribusiness ETF (MOO) rose ~4.5%.
CF Industries Reported Strong Third-Quarter Earnings
On October 31, CF Industries (CF) reported its third-quarter earnings. The company reported revenue growth of 19.5% YoY to $1.04 billion.
Natural Gas Prices Rose Yet Again Last Week
Natural gas prices for the week ending October 26 increased week-over-week at most locations in the US.
How Urea Prices Performed Last Week
In the week ending October 26, overall urea prices were broadly negative.
How Fertilizer Stocks and Prices Moved Last Week
Last week, the overall agribusiness sector was broadly negative. The VanEck Vectors Agribusiness ETF (MOO) fell ~4.9%.
Nitrogen Input: Natural Gas Prices Fell at Henry Hub
In the week ending October 19, natural gas prices trended lower after experiencing a spike in the week ending October 12 at Henry Hub.
Urea Prices Paused in the Week Ending October 19
In the week ending October 19, urea prices in the NOLA region of the US and in Brazil paused after a meteoric rise since the beginning of April.
Fertilizer Stocks and Prices for the Week Ending October 19
Last week, Intrepid Potash rose 5.9% to $3.6. Nutrien (NTR) gained 3.3% to $55.8, while Israel Chemicals (ICL) gained 1.6% to $6.2 per share.
Fertilizer Affordability Still Largely Unchanged Last Week
Last week, which ended October 12, fertilizer affordability was unchanged week-over-week.
MAP Prices Struggled to Find Positive Direction Last Week
Last week, MAP prices in Brazil remained unchanged week-over-week at $458 per metric ton.
Why Nitrogen Input Natural Gas Spiked Last Week
Last week, global tensions remained high, and natural gas prices spiked as the overall stock market traded in the deep red.
Urea Prices Hit New Highs Last Week
Nitrogen fertilizer companies CF Industries (CF), Nutrien (NTR), and CVR Partners (UAN) fell last week due to the broader market sell-off.
Nitrogen Input: How Natural Gas Prices Performed Last Week
Natural gas prices are a key price driver for urea and other nitrogen fertilizers.
Urea Prices Continued Their Ascent Last Week
Urea prices continued to strengthen last week, which added to the optimism surrounding nitrogen companies (XLB).
CF Industries: UBS Raised the Target Price
On October 2, CF Industries (CF) received a target price upgrade from UBS. The stock gained ~1.8% and rose to $55.8 during the day.
Nitrogen Fertilizers: Henry Hub Natural Gas Spot Prices
In the week ending September 28, the EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) reported that the natural gas prices in the United States were mixed.
Urea Prices: New Highs in the Week Ending September 28
In the week ending September 28, the urea prices in NOLA (New Orleans) and Brazil made new highs again. The rising trend started in May.
Fertilizer Affordability Pressure Eased Last Week
While the Fertilizer Affordability Index was below one, it’s still higher compared to the average levels observed since January 2016.
Fertilizer Stocks and Prices in the Week Ending September 21
The week ending September 21 was broadly positive for the fertilizer sector. MOO rose 2.3% from the week ending September 14.
Are Fertilizers Becoming Less Affordable?
Fertilizer affordability affects sales volume for fertilizer companies (NANR) such as Mosaic (MOS), Nutrien (NTR), CF Industries (CF), and Intrepid Potash (IPI).
Natural Gas Price Update for Nitrogen Investors
Low natural gas prices in the US have been highly beneficial for North American fertilizer companies (XLB) including CF Industries (CF), CVR Partners (UAN), Nutrien (NTR), and Mosaic (MOS).
Natural Gas Price Update for Nitrogen Fertilizer Stocks
We track natural gas prices since they can have a significant impact on the prices of nitrogen fertilizers companies.
Urea Prices Flat to Positive in Week Ended September 7
Urea, the most common nitrogen fertilizer, has been on an upward trend in recent weeks.
Fertilizer Prices and Stocks Are on Pause: What’s Going On?
Last week, which ended September 7, the VanEck Vectors Agribusiness ETF (MOO) fell 1.8%, while the S&P 500 Index fell 1%.
Consensus Gives Nutrien a Double-Digit Upside
Nutrien has yet to deliver meaningful returns similar to fertilizer (NANR) companies such as the Mosaic Company (MOS) and CF Industries (CF).
Natural Gas Prices Fell Last Week, Benefiting Nitrogen Producers
We’re looking at natural gas prices in this series, primarily because they make up two-thirds of the input costs for nitrogen-based fertilizers.
Fertilizer Stocks and Commodity Prices for Week Ended August 31
Last week, the overall fertilizer sector was broadly positive with six of the six stocks ending in flat to positive territory.
What Analysts Recommend for These Four Fertilizer Stocks
Nutrien (NTR) has a consensus recommendation of “buy.”
ICL, MOS, CF, NTR: A Look at Valuation Multiples
The median forward EV-to-EBITDA multiple of the four fertilizer companies stood at 9.7x as of August 27.
How Forward PE Multiples of These Four Fertilizer Stocks Stack Up
Mosaic (MOS) was trading at a forward PE of 15.8x, a discount compared to the peer average of 17.5x.
Why EBITDA Margins Matter to Fertilizer Stocks
Mosaic (MOS) is expected to see its gross margins expand to 21% in fiscal 2019 from 13% in fiscal 2018.
Fertilizer Continued to Rise in Week Ended August 24
Last week was broadly positive for the fertilizer sector, with the VanEck Vectors Agribusiness ETF (MOO) ending 1.3% higher.
How Higher Energy Costs outside the US Benefited CF Industries
In Europe, the cost of natural gas rose by 53% year-over-year as of June 2018.
Analyzing the Global Cost Curve of Nitrogen
It’s important for CF Industries (CF) investors to understand what’s behind increasing fertilizer prices.
How CF Industries Fared in the Second Quarter
CF Industries reported sales growth of 16% year-over-year in the second quarter due to the increase in realized fertilizer prices across its five segments.
How Deere’s Agriculture & Turf Segment Performed in Q3 2018
Deere’s (DE) Agriculture & Turf Equipment segment reported revenue of $6.29 billion in the fiscal third quarter, a 17.8% growth YoY.
How Fertilizer Affordability Changed in Week Ended August 10
Fertilizer affordability last week, which ended on August 10, was largely unchanged, as reported by Mosaic (MOS).
MAP Prices Mirror DAP Price Movements Last Week
For the week ended August 10, MAP (monoammonium phosphate) prices remained firm, mirroring DAP (diammonium phosphate) price movements.
Urea Prices in NOLA and Brazil Rose 30% since Last Year
Nitrogen fertilizers, especially urea, have seen an upward momentum in price due to supply tightening in China and the European Union.
Fertilizer Prices Take a Pause: Weekly Update
The fertilizer sector remained under pressure between August 3 and August 13, with the benchmark VanEck Vectors Agribusiness ETF (MOO) declining 2.4%
Nutrien Pops on Second-Quarter Earnings
Nutrien (NTR) reported its second-quarter earnings on August 1 after the market closed.
Key Takeaways from CF Industries’ Strong Second-Quarter Results
CF Industries reported second-quarter sales of $1.3 billion, which beat analysts’ estimate of $1.2 billion.
Is This Why CF’s Stock Has Rallied?
Like CF Industries’ (CF) sales, its margins are also expected to expand YoY (year-over-year) in Q2 2018 and the next four quarters.
Why CVR Partners Missed Analyst Estimates in Second Quarter
CVR Partners missed both top-line and bottom-line estimates for the second quarter, and the stock fell 4.5% after the earnings release.
How Natural Gas Prices Moved Last Week
Between July 11 and July 18, natural gas spot prices at Henry Hub fell about 4.2% to $2.72 per MMBtu (million British thermal units).
CF Industries Pops on Price Upgrade from RBC
Today, RBC upgraded CF Industries (CF) from its “underperform” rating to “sector perform.”
Nutrien’s Retail Business and Agrible’s Technology Platform
Agrible’s technology gives a digital dimension to farming activity by driving efficiency in decision-making.
MAP Fertilizer Prices Hit a New High in Brazil
Last week, MAP (monoammonium phosphate) prices in Brazil continued their uptrend, while prices in NOLA (New Orleans) moved sideways.
Update: July 13 Fertilizer Stocks and Price Movements
Last week, which ended July 13, was broadly negative for the agribusiness sector. The broader market index was positive.
CVR Partners Is Expected to See Losses
CVR Partners is expected to report a loss per share of $0.06 in the second quarter compared to a loss per share of $0.03 in the corresponding quarter a year ago.
How CVR Partners’ Sales Expectations Stack Up with Peers
Wall Street analysts estimate sales growth of $102 million in the second quarter, which would be a 4% year-over-year increase from $98 million in the second quarter of 2017.
More Tariffs on China, Fertilizer Stocks Are in the Red
China is one of the largest fertilizer consumers in the world. Investors are concerned that retaliatory measures might hurt fertilizer companies.
Monoammonium Phosphate Prices Reverse in New Orleans
Like DAP (diammonium phosphate) prices, MAP (monoammonium phosphate) prices were mixed last week.
Urea Prices Rose in Week Ended June 29
Last week, urea prices continued to be positive for companies (XLB) such as CF Industries (CF), Nutrien (NTR) (POT), and CVR Partners (UAN).
Fertilizers Got Stronger the Week Ended June 29
The upward trend for fertilizer continued last week, with CVR Partners (UAN) rising 9.6% week-over-week to $3.30.
Last Week Was a Great Week for Fertilizer Prices
Last week, the major NPK (nitrogen, phosphorous, and potassium) fertilizer prices rose broadly week-over-week.
Fertilizer Stocks Struggled on June 25 amid the Trade War
On June 25, the stock market continued to bleed due to risks from the escalating trade. The S&P 500 Index (SPY) fell almost 1.3%.
Fertilizer Stocks in June: Analysts’ Ratings and Price Targets
So far, June has been positive for most fertilizer stocks, buoyed by expectations of an improvement in commodity prices.
How CF Industries’ Forecasts Compare to Valuations
CF Industries’ valuation multiples have risen across the board since February 2016 and have broadly moved sideways since then.
What the Future Could Hold for CF Industries Stock
CF Industries (CF), one of the major nitrogen producers in North America, has had a bumpy ride since 2015.
Urea Prices Made a Strong Positive Move Last Week
Last week, urea prices continued their positive momentum from a week ago in the NOLA (New Orleans) region of the United States as well as in the Brazil region.
Fertilizer Affordability Dips but Remains Historically High
Last week, fertilizer affordability fell from the previous week on the back of a steeper increase in fertilizer prices week-over-week.
MAP Prices Were Broadly Higher Last Week
Contrary to the DAP (diammonium phosphate) prices, which remained broadly flat last week, MAP (monoammonium phosphate) prices were broadly higher in NOLA and Brazil.
How Natural Gas Prices Are Moving
Natural gas prices are critical for nitrogen and ammonia-based phosphate fertilizer producers.
Urea Prices Are on the Rise Again
After a brief pause in the direction two weeks ago, urea prices found positive momentum last week.
Construction & Forestry Segment’s Revenue, Margins Improved
In the fiscal second quarter, Deere & Company’s (DE) Construction & Forestry segment reported revenue of $2.7 billion.
Deere’s Agricultural Segment Revenue Rises, Margin Contracts
Deere & Company’s (DE) Agriculture & Turf segment is its largest revenue generator.
Why Analysts Are Warming Up to Fertilizer Stocks
On May 15, CF Industries (CF) received price target upgrades from two major investment firms.
Compass Minerals International: Ratings and Price Target Update
The current consensus mean rating on CMP stands at 2.4.
Monoammonium Phosphate Prices and Mosaic’s Views on Brazil
Like DAP (diammonium phosphate) prices last week, MAP (monoammonium phosphate) prices were broadly flat to positive WoW (week-over-week) but stayed higher YoY (year-over-year).
Mosaic Stock Down after Its 1Q18 Earnings Results
The Mosaic Company (MOS) announced its 1Q18 earnings after the market closed on May 7. It posted adjusted EPS (earnings per share) of $0.11.
What Analysts Expect for Mosaic’s Margins
Sales growth and gross income growth are also expected to trickle down to Mosaic’s (MOS) EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization) estimates.
What to Expect from Mosaic’s 1Q18 Earnings
Mosaic is expected to report EPS of $0.28 in 1Q18, which would be a significant rise from its EPS of $0.04 in 1Q17.
Snapshot: CF Industries Reports Its 1Q18 Earnings
CF Industries (CF) reported its 1Q18 earnings on May 2, after the market closed.
How Fertilizer Prices Moved in the Week Ending April 27
As of May 1, Israel Chemicals and Mosaic were the only two fertilizer stocks to have positive YTD (year-to-date) returns.
Will CF Industries See Operating Margin Growth in 1Q18?
For 1Q18, CF Industries’ EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization) are estimated to grow year-over-year by 22% to $333 million from $272 million a year ago.
Urea Prices in NOLA and Brazil: Weakness Last Week
Last week, urea prices were broadly flat to negative at two locations.
Fertilizer Price Movements for the Week Ended April 20
Last week, most fertilizer stocks ended in positive territory. Intrepid Potash (IPI) was the biggest gainer, rising 4.3% to $4.20.
April Update for Fertilizer Stocks: Ratings and Price Targets
Fertilizer stocks have failed to impress investors in 2018. The VanEck Vectors Agribusiness ETF (MOO) has returned ~1.4% year-to-date.
Fertilizer Affordability Index Drifted Lower Last Week
In the week that ended on April 13, 2018, the Fertilizer Affordability Index drifted lower, continuing its two-week streak.
MAP Prices Continued to Weaken Last Week
Last week, MAP (monoammonium phosphate) prices mimicked the movements in DAP (diammonium phosphate) prices.
Natural Gas Outlook for Nitrogen Fertilizers
Natural gas prices, which are key to US nitrogen fertilizer producers (MOO), were broadly lower during the week of April 4 to April 11, 2018.
Fertilizer Affordability Continues to Be Attractive for Buyers
The Fertilizer Affordability Index issued by the Mosaic Company (MOS) showed that fertilizers continued to be more affordable last week.
How MAP Prices Moved Last Week
One of the positives for companies such as Mosaic (MOS), Nutrien (NTR) (POT), and CF Industries (CF) is the higher year-over-year prices that we’ve seen for fertilizers.
DAP Price Update for the Week Ended April 6
In the week ended April 6, DAP (diammonium phosphate) prices were broadly flat to negative.
Urea Prices Tumbled in Week Ended April 6
Last week, urea prices in the NOLA (New Orleans) region of the US declined by ~3.4% week-over-week to $207 per metric ton from $214 per metric ton.
Fertilizer Update for the Week Ending March 30
CF Industries emerged as the biggest gainer last week and rose as much as 1.0% to $37.7. Most fertilizer stocks continue to deliver losses YTD.
Urea Prices Fell Last Week, Remain Higher in 2018
On average, urea prices in the Middle East fell as much as 4% week-over-week to $237 per metric ton from $247 per metric ton a week ago.
Fertilizer Affordability Improves in the Week Ended March 16
Fertilizer affordability tracks how the prices of key NPK fertilizers moved in comparison with the key fertilizer-consuming crops such as corn, soybean, and wheat.
How Fertilizer Stocks Are Performing
In the week ended March 16, the VanEck Vectors Agribusiness ETF (MOO) fell ~2%.
Monsanto: Analysts’ Ratings and Target Price
The consensus mean target price on Monsanto for the next 12-month period stood at $125.8. Bayer’s acquisition price is $128.
March Update for Mosiac’s Target Price and Ratings
The current consensus mean rating on Mosaic stands at 2.6 with an overall “hold” recommendation on the stock.
CF Industries: Analyzing the Ratings and Target Price in March
CF Industries reported its earnings on February 14. Before its earnings, CF Industries was trading at $39.7. CF Industries stock soared to $44.7 on March 5.