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Analyzing Iran’s Crude Oil Production

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Iran’s crude oil production 

Iran is the third-largest crude oil producer among OPEC producers. According to the EIA, Iran’s crude oil production increased by 10,000 bpd (barrels per day) to 3.8 MMbpd (million barrels per day) in January 2018—compared to December 2017. The production has risen by 40,000 bpd or 1% year-over-year. Iran’s oil production is near a nine-year high.

Iran’s crude oil production increased by 1,040,000 bpd or 37% from December 2016 to January 2018. Iran ramped up production after the US lifted sanctions on the country in January 2016.

Brent and US crude oil prices have risen ~74% and ~68% since January 1, 2016. The United States Brent Oil ETF (BNO) and the United States Oil ETF (USO) track Brent and US crude oil futures, respectively. BNO and USO have risen ~45% and ~12.5%, respectively, since January 1, 2016.

The Vanguard Energy ETF (VDE) and the iShares U.S. Energy ETF (IYE) rose 18.6% and 16%, respectively, during the same period. These ETFs have exposure to oil and gas companies.

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Iran and OPEC’s output cut deal  

Iran supported the extension of ongoing supply cuts until December 2018. OPEC allowed Iran to increase its oil production slightly to help it recover market share lost while Iran was under US sanctions. Iran is allowed to cap crude oil production at ~3,800,000 bpd. 

Iran’s boost crude oil exports

Iran has offered to increase the freight discount on crude oil sales to India. In turn, India plans to increase its imports from Iran. Iran plans to increase its market share in Asian markets through discounts on freight charges and crude oil prices.

Iran’s crude oil production plans 

Iran’s oil production averaged 3.5 MMbpd (million barrels per day) and 3.8 MMbpd in 2016 and 2017, respectively. Iran plans to ramp up production to 4.7 MMbpd by 2021. A rise in production from Iran could weigh on oil prices.

Next, we’ll discuss some crude oil price forecasts.

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