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$38.50: The Next Immediate Resistance Level for WTI Crude Oil

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Crude moving toward $38.50

The WTI crude oil futures for April 2016 rose by 5.5% and closed at $37.90 on March 7. In the last two trading sessions, WTI crude futures have been consolidating around $36–$38. On March 4, it made a high of $36.34 but on a closing basis, crude fell to $35.92. However, on March 7, it made high of $38.11 but was rebuffed from these levels to close at $37.90.

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Crude oil technical analysis

On March 7, WTI crude oil moved above its 100-day moving average. Crude oil is currently 2% above its 100-day moving average and 20% above its 20-day moving average. On February 22, WTI crude (UCO) (UWTI) moved above its 20-day moving average.

Although the moving averages are reflecting a bullish trend, the Fibonacci retracement number indicates an immediate resistance for WTI crude oil around the price level of $38.50. This number is the 50% retracement of crude futures from the high of $50.92 on October 9, 2015, to the low of $26.05 on February 11, 2016. The graph above also shows the upside resistance for crude oil near the same region.

Where do energy ETFs stand?

The SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (XOP) was 3.6% below its 100-day and 19% above its 20-day moving average on March 8. The United States Oil ETF (USO) was 10.3% below its 100-day moving average and 15.2% above its 20-day moving average on the same day.

Upstream stocks such as Anadarko Petroleum (APC) and ConocoPhillips (COP) were 9% and 11%, respectively, below their 100-day moving averages. However, Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD) was 1% above its 100-day moving average on March 7.

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