ProShares VIX Short-Term Futures

The rise in precious metals over the last few months has been due to insecurity among investors, given the political climate.

During the past week, average hourly earnings, excluding the farming industry, were below analysts’ expectation of 0.10%.

The high volatility regime will likely be the norm in the future. State Street observed that the US market has already clocked 42 highly volatile days in 2015.

One of the dominant financial trends of the past decade has been a move by investors out of actively managed funds and into passively managed index funds or exchange traded funds (ETFs).

It’s easy to be early after a correction I always get pretty excited during a stock market correction, assuming I have positioned correctly with cash on hand.  This market showed so many signs of toppiness, extreme optimism, and high valuations that hopefully many investors at least were selling the highly valued names they owned.  My […]

In March this year, President Trump announced a 25% tariff on imported steel and a 10% tariff on imported aluminum.

Precious metals saw downward price movement on June 25. Gold fell ~0.26% and was trading at $1,266.00 per ounce on the day.

If we look at the historical performance of precious metals compared to markets, we see that gold has been closely tracking market volatility.

The rise in gold on Wednesday was most likely due to the ongoing unrest in markets due to concerns about the US-China trade war.

The two most critical precious metals, gold and silver, rose on March 23, rising 1.4% and 1% in spot markets.

All four precious metals saw a down day on Monday, March 5. Gold, silver, platinum, and palladium were down 0.23%, 0.33%, 0.31%, and 0.81%, respectively.

Another critical factor that has been affecting the price movement of precious metals is overall market volatility.

Precious metals’ reaction was also due to economic numbers indicating the health of the US economy in general.

Though the returns on gold haven’t been exceptional over the past year, they have been stable.

The global markets trended higher in the week ended January 26, 2018, despite confusing messages from global leaders at Davos and the central banks of Europe and Japan.

During the week ended January 19, 2018, global markets trended higher despite the possibility of a US government shutdown. The potential shutdown pushed volatility up.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average appreciated ~1.6% for the week ended January 12, 2018, while the S&P 500 (SPY) returned ~1.3%. The tech-heavy NASDAQ (QQQ) posted a weekly gain of ~1.4%.

Every segment of the global financial markets began 2018 on a positive note. The global equity rally extended in the first week of the year.

Since last year’s presidential election, the US stock markets (IVV) (VTI) have seen volatility fall to almost a 50-year low.

The US stock markets were closed on Thursday, November 23, 2017, for Thanksgiving, and the next day (Black Friday) was quite slow for precious metals. Gold played in a narrow range that day.

Besides the impact of interest rates, there are also other global indicators that could play on precious metals—the most important being the US dollar.

All four precious metals rose on Monday, October 30, as multiple speculations in the market gripped investors’ attention.

Ongoing worries in North Korea and political chaos in Washington have been crucial in boosting the prices of precious metals.

Gold reached its two-week high price of $1,294.5 an ounce on Tuesday, October 10, and ended the day at $1292.1 per ounce.

All the four precious metals saw an up day on Monday, October 9, 2017.

North Korean tensions Like the US dollar, global tensions can be responsible for precious metal price fluctuations. North Korea has interpreted US president Donald Trump’s comments as a declaration of war, stating that Pyongyang has the right to take countermeasures, including shooting down US bombers outside of its airspace. The ongoing unrest in the Korean peninsula has led to a global […]

Precious metals have been buoyed by tension in North Korea. If North Korea does another missile test, it could prompt investors to move to haven assets such as gold, silver, Treasuries, and major currencies.

This week volatility (VXX) has continued to stick to its trend of sudden spikes and then dropping immediately.

The key reason for the debt ceiling deal was to approve aid to Hurricane Harvey victims. A US government shutdown could have adversely impacted relief operations.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (or FOMC) is scheduled to meet on September 19 and 20 to discuss the current economic climate in the US and to decide whether any monetary policy adjustments are necessary.

Precious metals have maintained upward movement over the past month as geopolitical tensions hover.

The governing council of the European Central Bank (or ECB) is scheduled to meet on September 7 in Frankfurt, Germany. The meeting will be followed by a press conference.

August was a volatile month, filled with economic, political, and geopolitical uncertainty. September could turn out to be another nail-biter for the financial markets.

Gold futures for September expiration have risen ~3.9% over the past one-month period. Silver, platinum, and palladium have followed the same track as gold.

Renewed tensions arising out of North Korea’s missile launch on Tuesday had a major impact on volatility. Asian markets have declined more than 1% as risk aversion dominated markets.

In this cycle of expansion after the great recession, the Fed has started the process of monetary tightening.

The last two weeks have been eventful for financial markets (SPY).

Equity markets in the US and across the globe reported heavy losses as risk aversion set in.

Some companies benefit in times of uncertainty, and some sectors provide cover for investors.

Gold prices were around their highest level in nearly seven weeks on Monday, July 31.

Gold saw its second straight day of increases on Thursday, July 27, as it hit its six-week high level of $1,266.2 an ounce to close at $1,261.5 per ounce.

Gold is a famous hedge against inflation. A reduction in volatility could mean a downward swing for gold.

Gold fell again on Friday, June 9, 2017, for the third consecutive day. It touched a low of $1,264.80 per ounce and then settled at $1,269.50.

UK election Last week, safe-haven bids were spurred and precious metal prices surged. The attack in London the weekend prior and the UK elections affected precious metals. Hedge funds and money managers had poured money into gold for two straight weeks, boosting it to its highest level in nearly a month. As of June 8, gold and […]

Market uncertainty is the primary reason for optimism in gold. However, Trump’s plans to increase expenditures could provide a boost to inflation.

During December’s end 2016 and January 2017, Stanley Druckenmiller once again became keen on gold, maybe due to the rising unrest following the election of President Donald Trump.

Gold has fallen below $1,300 per ounce and broken below the longer-term trend line that had been established this year.

What about the impact on interest rates? Here again, there is no consistent relationship between spending and interest rates.

Rate hike has historically been a temporary headwind for stocks; it has rarely been a harbinger of a bear market.

In its recent meeting, a dovish Fed pointed out that the “uncertainties abroad” made it risky to raise the policy rate and announced its decision to leave the federal funds rate unchanged at 0%–0.25%.

Russ Koesterich explains why fears of an imminent US recession may be overblown.