PulteGroup Inc

Most Recent

  • uploads///Mortgage Rates
    Consumer

    Mortgage rates fall as bonds sell off, affecting homebuilders

    The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose 12 basis points as the ten-year yield rose 10 basis points, and TBAs sold off. With the refinance boom over, originators are overstaffed.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Fannie Mae Attitudes about housing expected px appreciation
    Consumer

    Why consumers are more conservative about housing than the pros

    In the latest survey, consumers expect home prices to rise by 2.9% over the next 12 months. This is flat month-over-month and down 100 basis points year-over-year.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Mortgage Rates
    Consumer

    Weekly Realist real estate roundup (Part 4)

    Back to Part 3 The recent bond market sell-off bumps up mortgage rates again Mortgage rates are the lifeblood of the housing market, which is why Bernanke and the Fed began conducting quantitative easing (or QE) in the first place. Lower rates allow homeowners to refinance, which increases their disposable income and helps stimulate economic growth. Lower […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Fed Funds dot graph Mar
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    FOMC Meeting Should Be a Non-Event This Week

    The big event for investors will be the April FOMC meeting. Investors are assigning a 0% probability that the Fed will hike rates next week.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Toll Brothers Gross Margins
    Earnings Report

    Toll Brothers’ Gross Margins Fall on a Year-over-Year Basis

    In the fourth quarter of 2015, Toll Brothers’ (TOL) gross margins, excluding interest and write-downs, fell to 22.3% compared to 26.8% a year ago.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///New Home Sales  year
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    New Home Sales Impressed Wall Street while GDP Disappointed

    The week ending May 27 was dominated by a big upward surprise in new home sales and a disappointing GDP revision on Friday.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Lennar Revenues
    Consumer

    Lennar reports increases in units and prices in 2nd quarter 2014

    For the second quarter, Lennar reported $1.64 billion in revenues. This is an increase of 29% year-over-year. Homebuilding revenues increased 28%, to $1.6 billion from $1.3 billion in the second quarter of 2013.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///MVA
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Housing Stocks Rallied Then Came to a Halt in December

    Housing has been a bright spot in the US economy. But over the past month, housing stocks haven’t been performing well. ITB, a housing-focused fund, has fallen 4.7%.

    By Lara Sheldon
  • uploads///New Home Sales  year
    Consumer

    Must-know: Why the future looks bright for homebuilders

    It’s important to remember that while growth is coming from distressed levels, current production is still well below historical averages.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Kansas City Fed
    Consumer

    Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Report shows moderating activity

    The general business conditions index slipped 4 points to +6, coming off the the best reading in two years in May. Interestingly, the reason for moderation in factory growth was attributed to a difficulty in finding qualified workers.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Mortgage Rates
    Consumer

    Why mortgage rates have been flat with the bond market, at 4.17%

    The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was flat at 4.17%, as the ten-year yield rose 1 basis point, while TBAs rallied. With the refinance boom over, originators are overstaffed

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Business Inventories
    Consumer

    Inventories Spike In November, Portending Weak December Sales

    Sales fell 0.2% in November. Inventories increased 0.2%. Interestingly, the inventory build was with the retailers, not the manufacturers.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Nonfarm Payrolls
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Jobs Report Postponed until Friday, May 8

    The jobs report should have gone out last Friday. But the BLS decided to postpone it until this Friday, May 8. Unless the report is unusually good, the bond market will probably take it in stride.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Government Spending
    Consumer

    Does the economy need a government spending shot in the arm?

    Do we need a new New Deal? Construction spending doesn’t have to be simply residential (or private construction). Public construction also matters (however, it’s less than half of private construction dollars). The use of federal construction dollars to increase demand in the economy has been an issue of tremendous debate, with one side believing that […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Construction Spending
    Consumer

    Why construction spending pulls back in June

    Construction spending is just off its post-recession high, but it’s still depressed—current levels equate to mid-2003 spending levels—construction spending peaked at $1.2 trillion in March, 2006.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///US Treasuries Yield Curve
    Company & Industry Overviews

    Treasury Yields Were Mixed amid Oil Price Volatility

    Treasury yields rose across the yield curve—except for one-month T-bills, three-month T-bills, and three-year T-notes—in the week ending December 31.

    By Lynn Noah
  • uploads///Government Spending
    Consumer

    Must-know: Can the government do something for the economy?

    There has been a tug-of-war between the left-wing prescription of using the government to cushion the blows of a difficult economy and the right’s version of “let the markets clear.”

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///MR KBH
    Consumer

    KB Home swings to a profit and its turnaround stays on pace

    Unlike some of the other builders, KB is a turnaround story. The company believes its strategic focus on first-time and move-up homebuyers is finally beginning to pay off.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Fannie Mae Attitudes about housing expected px appreciation
    Consumer

    Consumers are tempering their home price appreciation expectations

    The 2.3% home price expectation is much lower than the 6%–7% forecast we’re seeing out of the National Association of Realtors and the mid single-digit forecast we’re seeing from most Wall Street professionals.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///DHI Gross Margins
    Earnings Report

    D.R. Horton’s Gross Margins Fall Slightly

    Like most other builders, D.R. Horton has been reporting lower gross margins due to sticker shock. Home prices have been increasing, but wage growth has been stagnant.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Construction Spending
    Consumer

    Construction Spending Fell in June

    In June 2016, private construction fell 0.6%, and public construction fell 0.6% month-over-month.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Foreclosure Completions
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Foreclosure Completions Fell in November: What Does It Mean?

    Foreclosure completions fell by 4,000 units to 33,000 in November, according to CoreLogic. Completions fell 19% YoY (year-over-year).

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Mortgage Rates
    Consumer

    Must-know: Why mortgage rates rose slightly as bonds sold off

    Mortgage rates are the lifeblood of the housing market, which is why the Fed began conducting quantitative easing (or QE) in the first place. Lower rates allow homeowners to refinance.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Richmond Fed
    Consumer

    Manufacturing activity keeps improving in the Mid-Atlantic region

    The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey looks at business conditions in the Fed’s fifth district, which covers Washington, DC, Baltimore, Richmond, and Charlotte.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads/// price
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Why Housing Affordability Is a Growing Concern in the US

    With the rise in property prices, housing affordability has become a growing concern in many markets of the country. High housing prices force people to the suburbs and rural towns to find affordable housing.

    By Peter Barnes
  • uploads///Business Inventories
    Consumer

    Sales fell, increasing business inventories in August 2014

    Business inventories are important economic drivers, especially when they build. Historically, recessions start with a buildup of inventory.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Toll Brothers Geo footprint
    Earnings Report

    Geographic Results for Toll Brothers in Fiscal 2Q16

    In Toll Brothers’ North segment, the ASP (average selling price) rose from $630,000 to $705,000 in fiscal 2Q16.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Foreclosure Completions
    Real Estate

    Foreclosure Completions Drop In October

    Since foreclosures represent a process that may or may not wind up with the bank owning the home, foreclosure completions are a better indicator of foreclosure activity than foreclosure starts.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Consumer Price Index
    Consumer

    Investor outlook: Consumer price inflation meets the Fed’s target

    This report will probably hold the hawks on the Fed at bay and allow them to continue to maintain ultra-low interest rates. The Fed wants to see annual inflation of about 2%.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///New Home Sales
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Why did new home sales surge in December?

    New home sales jumped 11.6% in December from a month ago to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 481,000.

    By David Ashworth
  • uploads///corelogic geo
    Consumer

    Why do homebuilders watch for rising real estate prices?

    Homebuilders compete with existing homes for buyers, and increasing prices for existing homes means they have more latitude to raise prices for new homes.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Foreclosure Starts
    Consumer

    Why foreclosure starts dropped 35% from last year as prices rose

    Foreclosure starts are closely watched by investors, realtors, and homebuilders alike because they forecast future housing supply. Foreclosure timelines can vary widely by state.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Chart  EBITDA Margin
    Company & Industry Overviews

    What Does D.R. Horton’s EBITDA Margin Say?

    D.R. Horton’s EBITDA margin was at 10.1% as on March 2015, much better compared to 2.3% for fiscal 2011.

    By Peter Barnes
  • uploads///losers
    Company & Industry Overviews

    Top Losers in the Consumer Sector Last Week

    Hershey (HSY) announced its fiscal 4Q17 results on February 1. Hershey’s revenue declined 1.5% YoY to $1.94 billion and missed the estimates by 0.97%.

    By Sushree Mohanty
  • uploads///Foreclosure Starts
    Consumer

    Why foreclosure starts ticked up in October but are still falling

    Foreclosure starts are closely watched by investors, realtors, and homebuilders alike because they forecast future housing supply.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Toll Brothers EPS
    Earnings Report

    Toll Brothers Operating Margins Fall Slightly

    Toll Brothers’ operating income increased to 12.4% of revenues compared to 12.3% in the third quarter and 12.3% a year ago. This is another example of the operating leverage that builders such as Toll Brothers have.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///SPF EPS
    Real Estate

    Standard Pacific’s Q3 2014 earnings: Company overview

    Standard Pacific generally acquires undeveloped land zoned for residential use. It typically buys and holds land for cash, although it uses options as well. For large projects, it will undertake joint ventures with third parties.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///ISM PMI
    Consumer

    Rebounding manufacturing in February affects builders like Lennar

    The Institute for Supply Management Purchasing Manager’s Index (ISM PMI for short) is similar to the other regional PMI indices, but it covers the entire country.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Hourly Earnings
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Wages Dipped Slightly in December: Here’s Why

    Average hourly earnings fell by 1 cent on a month-over-month basis in December 2015 and were up 2.5% year-over-year to $25.24. Average weekly hours were flat at 34.5.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///DHI Gross Margins
    Earnings Report

    D.R. Horton Maintained Its Gross Margins

    D.R. Horton’s gross margins held steady at 19.9% in the fourth quarter of 2015. However, they fell on a YoY (year-over-year) basis from 20.5% in the fourth quarter of 2014.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Mortgage Rates
    Consumer

    Mortgage Rates Are Not Buying The Rally Yet

    The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage decreased six basis points to close at 3.92%. The ten-year bond rose and yields decreased by 15 basis points.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///FHFA HPI Geographic
    Real Estate

    All Real Estate Is Local: Why Home Price Appreciation Varies

    The real estate recovery has been uneven. Some parts of the country are outperforming others. The Pacific and Mountain states outperformed the rest of the country over the past two years. The Middle Atlantic and New England states have underperformed.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///GDP
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Week In Review: Strong GDP, Weak Spending And Confidence

    Last week was a short one, with the Thanksgiving Day holiday on Thursday and a half day on Friday. Most of the week’s data was front-loaded into Monday through Wednesday.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Leading Economic Indicators
    Consumer

    Index of Leading Economic Indicators takes a breather in August

    The Index of Leading Economic Indicators (or LEI) is a business cycle indicator. It’s based on 11 different economic statistics—average workweek, initial jobless claims, new orders, building permits, unfilled durable goods, commodity prices, consumer expectations, stock prices, and money supply.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///MBS tranching
    Consumer

    Why increasing income drives REITs and builders like KB and Redwood

    Homebuilders are sensitive to the general economy, particularly the job market. Flat income growth isn’t what they want to see.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Consumer Price Index
    Consumer

    Must-know: Inflation remains well-contained at the consumer level

    Inflation is a double-edged sword. The Fed (or Federal Reserve) likes to see a little inflation because it’s associated with rising wages. But deflation causes a lot of economic problems, especially for the Fed.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Nonfarm Payrolls
    Consumer

    The jobs report looms large this week for REITs and homebuilders

    The upcoming week will be about the jobs report on Friday, which is the biggest driver of Fed policy at the moment.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Housing Starts LT
    Consumer

    How D.R. Horton plans to address the first-time homebuyer

    D.R. Horton CEO Donald Tomnitz said that the first-time homebuyer will drive the next leg in the sector and has been underserved in this recovery.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Business Inventories
    Consumer

    Business inventories rise: Does cold weather take the blame again?

    It’s essential to focus on the inventory-to-sales ratio, as spikes in this ratio portend slow-downs.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Housing starts
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    A Closer Look at the August 15 Drop in Housing Starts

    Housing starts fell from a downward-revised ~1.16 million to ~1.13 million in August 2015. This was below Wall Street estimates of just over 1.16 million.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///JOLT Job Openings
    Consumer

    The FOMC Leaves The Big Question About Jobs Unanswered

    There was no discussion of the “speed limit” issue in the July FOMC minutes. This is generally a “cyclical versus structural unemployment” issue.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Bloomberg Consumer Comfort
    Consumer

    Consumer comfort ticks up markedly, supporting homebuilder stocks

    Consumer sentiment is a critical factor in risk taking. In fact, in a recent earnings conference call, KB Home (KBH) cited consumer confidence as a more important variable than interest rates.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Consumer Price Inflation rates
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Key for Investors: Understanding Inflation and Its Implications

    Inflation represents a rise in the general price level in a country or region. The higher the inflation, the lower the quantum of a particular good that can be purchased.

    By David Ashworth
  • uploads///MBA Purchase Index
    Financials

    Seasonality Trumps The Bond Market Rally

    The MBA Purchase Index decreased 6.9% in the week ended December 12, 2014, despite a strong bond market rally.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Bloomberg Consumer Comfort
    Consumer

    Must-know: Consumer Comfort Index ticks up, good for the builders

    When you ask consumers about the world around them, they tend to be more negative. But when you ask about their own personal situation, they’re more neutral.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Homeownership Rate
    Consumer

    Why the homeownership rate has declined to 65% in this recession

    The homeownership rate rose precipitously during the housing bubble. This was due to several reasons.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Chart
    Company & Industry Overviews

    Why you should invest in homebuilder ETFs like XHB and ITB

    ETFs present another investment avenue. Apart from pure homebuilder ETFs, there are many other ETFs that offer exposure to homebuilders.

    By Peter Barnes
  • uploads///Household formation vs Housing Starts
    Consumer

    Must-know: Will the government help the first-time homebuyer?

    Between low prices and low borrowing rates, the first-time homebuyer should have been set. However, lenders greatly tightened credit standards and many first-time homebuyers found themselves shut out of the mortgage market.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///SPF gross margins
    Real Estate

    Standard Pacific’s gross margins may be plateauing in 3Q14

    Standard Pacific’s characterization of the current market state Standard Pacific (SPF) CEO Scott Stowell characterized the housing market’s current state this way: “We have experienced and continue to manage through the largest boom/bust housing cycle in U.S history. We have made significant progress to-date. I believe the housing market is less volatile than perceptions about […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Fannie Mae Attitudes about housing perception of economy
    Financials

    Americans Becoming More Constructive on the Economy

    Four years into the economic recovery, housing starts are still about where they bottomed in prior recessions. To get the economy out of first gear, we need to start building more houses, as homebuilding employs a lot of people.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Housing starts
    Consumer

    Housing starts rebound, driven by multi-family construction

    Housing starts are a critical predictor of future homebuilder sales Housing starts are released jointly by the Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. Analysts use the information to anticipate future production for homebuilders, future demand for raw materials, and labor costs. This data will even affect the forecasts for home-related retailers, […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Construction Public GDP
    Company & Industry Overviews

    Analyzing the New Deal: Do We Need a New One?

    Historically, the use of public construction dollars has been the big lever that the government uses to stimulate the economy. This dates back to the New Deal.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Industrial Production
    Consumer

    A decline in manufacturing causes industrial production to fall

    Up until January, industrial production and manufacturing production had been accelerating, so it is premature to draw any major conclusions from one disappointing report.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///FHFA House Price Index
    Consumer

    Must-know: Why home-price appreciation is leveling off

    In July, home prices increased 0.1% month-over-month. They’re up 4.4% year-over-year (or YoY). Prices are now within 6.5% of their April 2007 peak. They correspond to the levels in July 2005. Real estate values drive consumer confidence and spending. They have an enormous impact on the economy.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads/// regulations
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    How Zoning Regulations Impact City Development

    Zoning is the way that governments supervise land development and the kinds of uses each individual property may be directed toward for the public interest.

    By Peter Barnes
  • uploads///construction spending percent
    Consumer

    Why construction spending is so important to the economy

    Historically, construction spending has led economies out of a recession.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///KB Home Green
    Consumer

    Why KB Home’s green initiative sets it apart from other builders

    KB Home (KBH) believes in sustainability. The company has taken the lead in developing energy-efficient homes.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///MR NAHB
    Consumer

    Homebuilders note momentum pause as buyers digest rate increases

    The National Association of Homebuilders (NAHB) Sentiment Index came in at 58—the highest reading since July 2005, and only the third time since the bust that more homebuilders considered conditions to be more “good” than “poor.”

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///KB Home Geographic Expposure
    Consumer

    Why KB Home’s turnaround increased: A good geographic exposure

    KB Home has exposure to some of the hottest real estate markets in the U.S. with majority of its business in California and Texas.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///MBA Purchase Index
    Consumer

    Purchase applications fall as we enter the seasonally slow period

    The MBA Purchase Index decreased 2.6% last week in response to strong bond market sell-off and a holiday-shortened week. We’re entering the seasonally slow period for the real estate sector, which pretty much lasts as long as football season.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Manufacturing Production
    Consumer

    Manufacturing production drops due to bad winter weather

    Manufacturing output fell 0.8% after increasing 0.3% in December. The output for utilities rose 4.1% in January on cold weather in the Northeast.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///KB Home Revenue
    Consumer

    Overview: KB Home’s background and 3rd quarter 2014 earnings

    KB Home has exposure to some of the hottest real estate markets in the U.S. The majority of its business is in California and Texas, although it has some exposure to the Southwest and mid-Atlantic states.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///MBA Purchase Index
    Consumer

    MBA Purchase Index falls in the week ending April 26

    The MBA Purchase Index is an important index to forecast housing activity The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) index of purchase activity measures application activity, not loans made. The Mortgage Bankers Association samples roughly 75% of all mortgage activity in the U.S., and its indices are key indicators for the real estate finance market and home […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Richmond Fed
    Consumer

    Mid-Atlantic manufacturing remains sluggish, bad news for NVR?

    The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey looks at business conditions in the Fed’s fifth district, which covers Washington, DC, Baltimore, Richmond, and Charlotte The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey is sent out to companies in the Mid-Atlantic states and covers current business conditions, shipments, new orders, backlog, and inventory. It’s similar to the other surveys put out […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Housing Starts LT
    Industrials

    Keep in mind the long-term view for homebuilders like PulteGroup

    The big question for the builders is how they’ll be able to drive revenue growth in the future when they aren’t able to rely on simply raising prices.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Personal Consumption Expenditure Core Rate Chg
    Consumer

    Inflation continues to come in below the Fed’s target: What does this mean? A double-edged sword?

    Inflation is a double-edged sword. The Fed (or Federal Reserve) likes to see a little inflation because it’s associated with rising wages. But deflation causes a lot of economic problems, especially for the Fed.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Housing Starts LT
    Consumer

    Must-know: Current housing starts from a historical perspective

    Following the collapse, we saw starts average around 687,000 units per year, with a low of under half a million.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Housing Starts LT
    Consumer

    Why low housing starts mean pent-up demand going forward

    During the bust years, housing starts have been well below 1 million per year. In fact, we recently popped the champagne when we broke through a 1 million pace for a single month.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Housing Starts LT
    Consumer

    Could margins for homebuilders like Toll Brothers contract?

    Manufacturing activity is a good sign for job growth, which has been the Achilles’ heel of this recovery. Although manufacturing isn’t the driver of the economy that it used to be, it still matters.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Bloomberg Consumer Comfort
    Energy & Utilities

    Consumer Comfort Up As Gas Prices Fall

    Perceptions of the economy are highly negative—32% positive versus 68% negative. The perception of whether it’s a good time to buy is also highly negative, at 37% positive versus 63% negative

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Mortgage Rates
    Consumer

    Mortgage rates finally breach 4%, reflecting bonds again

    Mortgage rates Mortgage rates are the lifeblood of the housing market. This is why the Fed began quantitative easing in the first place. Lower rates allow homeowners to refinance. Refinancing increases homeowners’ disposable income. It also helps stimulate economic growth. Lower rates allow first-time homebuyers to move out of apartments and into houses. This means higher consumption and […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Bloomberg Consumer Comfort
    Financials

    Consumer Comfort Keeps Climbing: Are We Finally Out Of The Rut?

    The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index is a weekly sentiment index. KB Home (KBH) cited consumer confidence as a more important variable than interest rates.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///NAHB Housing Market Index
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Behind Homebuilder Sentiment So Far in May

    The NAHB Wells Fargo Housing Market Index measures homebuilder sentiment has been increasing steadily since 2009. Recently, it’s started to accelerate.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///DHI Main Street Stars
    Consumer

    Why D.R. Horton’s 1st quarter earnings impressed investors

    D.R. Horton, Inc., is one of the largest homebuilding companies in the United States. It’s geographically diversified, with operating divisions in 27 states and 78 metropolitan markets.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Household formation vs Housing Starts
    Consumer

    Why household formation will drive builders like Standard Pacific

    While Standard Pacific does cater to the first-time homebuyer, it has de-emphasized that market since the housing bust began. This was a smart decision.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Consumer Sentiment
    Consumer

    University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index dips in August

    The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index is a leading indicator for the U.S. economy The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index is an important indicator of the consumer’s perception of the U.S. economy. Similar to other consumer confidence measures, it asks consumers about their views on the current economic conditions and their […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///MR mortgage rates
    Consumer

    Mortgage rates fall as homebuilders report declining traffic

    Mortgage rates are one of the prime drivers for homebuilders Mortgage rates are the lifeblood of the housing market, which is why Bernanke and the Fed began conducting quantitative easing (or QE) in the first place. Lower rates allow homeowners to refinance, which increases their disposable income and helps stimulate economic growth. Lower rates enable first-time homebuyers to move […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///MBA Mortgage Apps
    Financials

    Mortgage REIT highlights: Mel Watt may come to the rescue

    FHFA Chairman Mel Watt discussed ways to increase access to credit, particularly for the first time-homebuyer. Probably the biggest one was a proposal to allow 3% down Fannie Mae loans.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///KB Home Revenue
    Earnings Report

    KB Home Just Reported Strong Revenue Growth for 2Q16

    For 2Q16, KB Home reported revenues of $811 million, which easily topped the Wall Street estimate consensus of $750 million. Revenues increased by 30% YoY.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Fed funds target
    Consumer

    A bond market sell-off greets Yellen’s first FOMC announcement

    Yesterday, the Federal Reserve ended its March FOMC meeting and decided to continue to reduce asset purchases.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Mortgage Rates
    Real Estate

    Mortgage rates fall despite a bond market sell-off

    Over the past several months, mortgage rates and the ten-year bond yield stopped correlating. Last week, this trend broke as the two variables lined up once again.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Senior LO Survey
    Consumer

    Why credit is still easing but subprime is gone from the banks

    Credit eased during the quarter, but it was primarily associated with commercial real estate and commercial or industrial lending.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///ryl
    Fund Managers

    Citadel Advisors increases position in Ryland Group

    Citadel Advisors filed a 13G with the SEC in January 2015 and updated its position in Ryland Group. According to the filing, Citadel owns 5% of the company.

    By Adam Rogers
  • uploads///Bloomberg Consumer Comfort
    Consumer

    Consumer comfort slips: A critical variable in risk-taking

    When you ask consumers about the world around them, they tend to be more negative. But when you ask about their own personal situation, they’re more neutral.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Pending Home Sales
    Consumer

    A lack of first-time buyers: Pending home sales fall again

    The return of the first-time homebuyer is the missing link to a more normal housing market. Household formation numbers have been depressed since the Great Recession began.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Labor Force Particiption Rate
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Week in Review: A Constructive Jobs Report

    The jobs report was the highlight of the week. Payrolls increased by 215,000. The labor force participation rate inched up for the fifth month in a row.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Pending Home Sales
    Consumer

    Why did pending home sales rebound after a slow start to 2014?

    Given that the first-time homebuyer is still in a difficult financial situation with a weak job market and high student loan debt, homebuilders are focusing more on the move-up buyer.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///NAHB Housing Market Index
    Consumer

    Homebuilder sentiment dips as traffic slows and shutdown persists

    Builders noted the shutdown and the impending debt ceiling have depressed consumer confidence, and this is flowing through to traffic.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///MR pending home sales
    Consumer

    Pending home sales declined in August as mortgage rates increased

    The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI), a proprietary index from the National Association of Realtors based on contract signings, fell 1.5%, to 107.7 in August from 109.4 in July.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///mortgage rate long term
    Consumer

    Bernanke’s comments send mortgage rates screaming higher

    The recent bond market sell-off bumps up mortgage rates again Mortgage rates are the lifeblood of the housing market, which is why Bernanke and the Fed began conducting quantitative easing (or QE) in the first place. Lower rates allow homeowners to refinance, which increases their disposable income and helps stimulate economic growth. Lower rates enable first-time home […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
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