What Could Drive Crude Oil Futures This Week?



Energy calendar 

On April 3, 2018, the API is scheduled to release its US crude oil inventory report. On April 4, 2018, the EIA is scheduled to release its weekly US crude oil production data. Baker Hughes, a GE company (BHGE), is scheduled to release its US crude oil rig count report on April 6, 2018.

All of these events could influence oil prices this week. WTI oil prices increased ~1% on March 22–29, 2018. The Vanguard Energy ETF (VDE) and the iShares Global Energy ETF (IXC) increased ~0.3% and 1.1%, respectively, during this period. VDE tracks an index of energy stocks. IXC tracks of an index of global equities in the energy sector.

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US crude oil futures’ peak  

WTI oil futures closed at $66.14 per barrel on January 26, 2018—the highest settlement since December 2014. Ongoing supply cutsstrong demand, and supply outages have supported oil prices.

US oil prices are 1.8% below their three-year high. Record US oil production and a rise in Cushing inventories could pressure oil prices this week. However, geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran, strong oil demand, and the expectation of a supply cut extension into 2019 could support oil prices.

Crude oil futures’ moving averages  

WTI oil futures for May delivery were trading above their 20-day, 50-day, and 100-day moving averages on March 29, 2018. Crude oil prices could trend higher.

Crude oil’s price volatility 

The CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index (OVX) fell 6% to 25.07 on March 29, 2018. The index is near a three-year low, which suggests less volatility in oil prices in the short term.

Read Saudi Arabia and Russia’s Crude Oil Production Cut Strategy for the latest updates on crude oil.


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