uploads///WTI crude oil chart

What Are the Long-Term Crude Oil Price Forecasts?


Oct. 8 2020, Updated 1:16 p.m. ET

Crude oil prices so far in 2016

Crude oil prices have been on a roller-coaster ride in 2016. Crude oil prices have fallen almost 20% in 2016 and are following a long-term bearish trend. The US crude oil and refined products inventories could swing crude oil prices in either direction.

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Support and resistance levels 

The consensus of slowing US crude oil production and lower crude oil prices could boost consumption and support crude oil prices. Crude oil prices could see a resistance level at $37 per barrel. Prices hit this level in November 2015. In contrast, the rising US crude oil inventory and oversupply concerns could put pressure on crude oil prices. The nearest support level for crude oil prices is $25 per barrel. Prices tested this mark in 2003.

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Long-term crude oil price forecast 

The IMF (International Monetary Fund) forecasts that crude oil prices (Intercontinental Exchange Brent, Dubai, and West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices) could average around $45.30 per barrel in 2020. The World Bank estimates that crude oil prices could average around $51.20 per barrel in 2020, per real 2010 US dollars, and around $58.82 per barrel in 2020, per nominal US dollars. Real 2010 US dollars account for adjusting for inflation as of 2010. The nominal US dollar refers to the value of the asset in the corresponding year.

Goldman Sachs (GS) suggests that crude oil prices could peak at around $40 per barrel by the end of 2016 and bottom out at around $20 per barrel. The National Bank of Abu Dhabi suggests that crude oil prices could test $20 per barrel in the short term due to fragile economic conditions in the MENA (Middle East and North Africa) region. Read How Are Oil Prices Squeezing OPEC Members’ Budgets? to learn more. 

Long-term lower crude oil prices affect oil producers like Range Resources (RRC), Anadarko Petroleum (APC), Noble Energy (NBL), PetroChina (PTR), Apache (APA), and Petróleo Brasileiro (PBR). ETFs and ETNs such as the iShares U.S. Oil Equipment & Services ETF (IEZ), the ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Crude Oil ETF (SCO), and the VelocityShares 3x Long Crude Oil ETN (UWTI) are influenced by the rises and falls in oil prices.

To learn more about the recent historic crude oil production deal, read Why Crude Oil Prices Fell despite the OPEC and Non-OPEC Deal.


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