As of April 27, 2017, natural gas prices were 19.1% below their December 2016 high. Prices fell due to warmer-than-normal weather for this time of year.
The EIA reported that US natural gas inventories rose by 54 Bcf to 2,115 Bcf on April 7–14, 2017. Inventories rose 2.6% week-over-week but fell 14.8% YoY.
As of April 6, 2017, US natural gas prices are above their 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages. That suggests a bullish momentum for natural gas.
The EIA released its weekly natural gas inventory report on April 6, 2017. US natural gas inventories rose 2.0 Bcf to 2,051 Bcf from March 24–31, 2017.
The EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) estimates that US natural gas prices could average $3.43 per MMBtu in 2017 and $3.70 per MMBtu in 2018.
PointLogic reported that US dry natural gas production was flat at 70.4 Bcf (billion cubic feet) per day between January 25, 2017, and February 1, 2017.
Market data provider PointLogic reported that US dry natural gas production rose 0.4% to 70.4 Bcf (billion cubic feet) per day from January 19–25, 2017.
For the week ending January 13, US natural gas inventories were 2.6% lower than the five-year average. They’re also 13% less than the same period in 2016.
US natural gas inventories are 0.6% less than the five-year average. Falling natural gas inventories will support natural gas (FCG) (DGAZ) (BOIL) prices.
The EIA released its weekly natural gas inventory report on December 29. US natural gas inventories fell by 237 Bcf to 3,360 Bcf from December 16–23, 2016.
US natural gas inventories are 2.2% above their five-year average. High natural gas inventories will pressure natural gas (FCG) (DGAZ) (BOIL) (UNG) prices.
The EIA released its monthly STEO report on November 8. It expects US natural gas prices will average $2.50 per MMBtu in 2016 and $3.12 per MMBtu in 2017.
The EIA released its weekly natural gas inventory report on October 20, 2016. US natural gas inventories rose 77 Bcf to 3,836 Bcf from October 7–14, 2016.
The EIA released its monthly STEO report on October 13. It expects US natural gas prices to average $2.51 per MMBtu in 2016 and $3.07 per MMBtu in 2017.
PointLogic reported that US natural gas supplies were flat at 77.7 Bcf per day from September 22–28, 2016—1.4% less compared to the same period in 2015.
On March 3, 2016, natural gas futures touched a 17-year low of $1.64. From March 3 to September 12, 2016, natural gas rose 77.7% on a closing price basis.
The EIA released its monthly STEO report on September 7. It expects US natural gas prices to average $2.42 per MMBtu in 2016 and $2.87 per MMBtu in 2017.
The CFTC reported that open interest in US natural gas futures and options contracts fell for the first time in four weeks in the week ended August 23, 2016.
US natural gas inventories are 13.8% higher than their five-year average. High natural gas inventories could limit the upside for US natural gas prices.
Open interest rose by 50,242 contracts between July 26 and August 2. It hit the lowest level of 984,024 since February 2016 in the week ending July 26.
Between May 2 and August 10, the US Dollar Index and natural gas prices moved in opposite directions based on the closing price in 35 out of 70 trading sessions.
In the last five trading sessions, natural gas futures have fallen by 9.8%. They closed at ~$2.56 per MMBtu on August 10—down ~2.1% compared to the previous session.
NYMEX natural gas futures were trading at $2.8 per MMBtu in electronic trading on August 5 at 7:00 AM EST. Hot weather next week could support natural gas prices.
In the last five trading sessions, natural gas futures rose by 1.5% and closed at ~$2.66 per MMBtu on July 27. On July 1, active natural gas futures hit a 2016 high.
Natural gas–weighted stocks with high correlations to natural gas futures moved with natural gas. Stocks with low correlations weren’t impacted as much.
The CFTC reported that open interest in US natural gas futures and options contracts fell for the third straight week in the week ending July 12, 2016.
Natural gas futures contracts for August delivery rose by 1.5% and settled at $2.69 per MMBtu on July 21. Prices rose due to the hot summer weather forecast.
Between July 13 and July 20, natural gas futures fell by ~2.9% and the US Dollar Index rose by ~1.0%. The dollar strengthened due to rate hike expectations.
The EIA’s forecast suggested that natural gas prices could rise. Total natural gas consumption could be 76.5 Bcf per day and 77.7 Bcf per day in 2016 and 2017.
Market intelligence company PointLogic reported that US natural gas consumption rose by 4.4% for the week ended July 13, 2016. compared with the previous week.
August natural gas futures contracts fell by 0.37% and closed at $2.72 per MMBtu on Thursday, July 14. Prices fell due to the larger-than-expected rise in natural gas inventories.
Between July 6 and July 13, 2016, natural gas (UNG) (DGAZ) (BOIL) (GASL) (GASX) (DGAZ) (FCG) futures fell by ~1.8%, and the US Dollar Index (UUP) rose by ~0.17%.
PointLogic reported that US natural gas consumption fell by 3.7% between June 30, 2016, and July 6, 2016. This was the first fall in the last five weeks.
According to Pioneer Natural Resources’ (PXD) 10Q form for 1Q16, PXD reported total (non-cash and cash) gains of ~$43 million on its derivative instruments.
Between June 29 and July 6, 2016, natural gas futures fell by ~2.7% and the US Dollar Index (UUP) rose by ~0.29%. The index rose after the Brexit vote.
The expectation of warmer weather this summer boosted the use of natural gas in electricity generation as the cooling demand rises. It’s driving natural gas prices.
Hedge funds reduced their net long positions on WTI crude oil futures and options contracts for the fifth time in six weeks in the week ended June 28, 2016.
The EIA released its weekly natural gas inventory report on June 30, 2016. It reported that US natural gas inventories rose by 42 Bcf to 3,140 Bcf for the week ending June 24, 2016.
In the last five trading sessions, natural gas futures have risen by 6.9% to close at ~$2.86 per MMBtu (British thermal units in millions) on June 29, 2016.
Between May 2 and June 22, the US Dollar Index and natural gas prices moved in opposite directions based on closing price in 16 out of 36 trading sessions.
The CFTC’s report stated that hedge funds reduced their net long positions on WTI crude oil futures and options contracts for the fourth consecutive week.
The EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) reported that US natural gas inventories rose by 69 Bcf to 3,041 Bcf for the week ending June 10, 2016.
In the past, natural-gas-weighted stocks with high correlations to natural gas futures have tended to move with natural gas. Stocks with low correlations weren’t impacted as much.
World Bank estimates that natural gas prices will average $2.50 per MMBtu (British thermal units in millions) in 2016 due to high natural gas inventories.
In the four successive trading sessions ending on June 1, 2016, natural gas futures and the US Dollar Index moved in opposite directions in only one instance.
Hedge funds’ net long positions are close to June 2015 highs. They hit their highest level since May 12, 2015, at 249,123 in the week ended April 26, 2016.
The EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) forecasts that US natural gas production could average ~79.6 Bcf per day and ~81.3 Bcf per day in 2016 and 2017, respectively.
The EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) forecasts that natural gas supply will outstrip demand by 3.2 Bcf (billion cubic feet) per day in 2016 and by 3.9 Bcf per day in 2017.
On May 2, 2016, the US Dollar Index closed at $92.62. Between May 2 and May 25, the US Dollar Index rose by ~2.4%, while natural gas futures fell by 8%.
Citibank forecast that US natural gas prices would average $3.65 per MMBtu for 2017. The roller coaster ride in natural gas prices impacts upstream players.
