As of April 27, 2017, natural gas prices were 19.1% below their December 2016 high. Prices fell due to warmer-than-normal weather for this time of year.
The EIA reported that US natural gas inventories rose by 54 Bcf to 2,115 Bcf on April 7–14, 2017. Inventories rose 2.6% week-over-week but fell 14.8% YoY.
As of April 6, 2017, US natural gas prices are above their 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages. That suggests a bullish momentum for natural gas.
The EIA released its weekly natural gas inventory report on April 6, 2017. US natural gas inventories rose 2.0 Bcf to 2,051 Bcf from March 24–31, 2017.
The EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) estimates that US natural gas prices could average $3.43 per MMBtu in 2017 and $3.70 per MMBtu in 2018.
PointLogic reported that US dry natural gas production was flat at 70.4 Bcf (billion cubic feet) per day between January 25, 2017, and February 1, 2017.
Market data provider PointLogic reported that US dry natural gas production rose 0.4% to 70.4 Bcf (billion cubic feet) per day from January 19–25, 2017.
For the week ending January 13, US natural gas inventories were 2.6% lower than the five-year average. They’re also 13% less than the same period in 2016.
US natural gas inventories are 0.6% less than the five-year average. Falling natural gas inventories will support natural gas (FCG) (DGAZ) (BOIL) prices.
The EIA released its monthly STEO report on October 13. It expects US natural gas prices to average $2.51 per MMBtu in 2016 and $3.07 per MMBtu in 2017.
PointLogic reported that US natural gas supplies were flat at 77.7 Bcf per day from September 22–28, 2016—1.4% less compared to the same period in 2015.
Open interest rose by 50,242 contracts between July 26 and August 2. It hit the lowest level of 984,024 since February 2016 in the week ending July 26.
Between May 2 and August 10, the US Dollar Index and natural gas prices moved in opposite directions based on the closing price in 35 out of 70 trading sessions.
In the last five trading sessions, natural gas futures have fallen by 9.8%. They closed at ~$2.56 per MMBtu on August 10—down ~2.1% compared to the previous session.
Natural gas futures contracts for August delivery rose by 1.5% and settled at $2.69 per MMBtu on July 21. Prices rose due to the hot summer weather forecast.
Market intelligence company PointLogic reported that US natural gas consumption rose by 4.4% for the week ended July 13, 2016. compared with the previous week.
August natural gas futures contracts fell by 0.37% and closed at $2.72 per MMBtu on Thursday, July 14. Prices fell due to the larger-than-expected rise in natural gas inventories.
Between July 6 and July 13, 2016, natural gas (UNG) (DGAZ) (BOIL) (GASL) (GASX) (DGAZ) (FCG) futures fell by ~1.8%, and the US Dollar Index (UUP) rose by ~0.17%.
PointLogic reported that US natural gas consumption fell by 3.7% between June 30, 2016, and July 6, 2016. This was the first fall in the last five weeks.
The EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) forecasts that US natural gas production could average ~79.6 Bcf per day and ~81.3 Bcf per day in 2016 and 2017, respectively.
This transaction is a classic merger arb core position. The companies are reasonably big and liquid and the deal makes strategic sense. It’s fairly safe.
Range Resources is growing its portfolio in the Southeast US. Natural gas exports seem to be a promising growth area. The deal will enhance its credit profile.
According to Range Resources’ presentation on its merger with Memorial Resource Development, it’s expecting an ~108% boost to its 2016 estimated cash flow.
The EIA forecasts that US natural gas production could average ~79.6 Bcf (billion cubic feet) per day and ~81.3 Bcf per day in 2016 and 2017, respectively.
WPX Energy (WPX) announced its 1Q16 earnings on May 4, 2016, after the Market closed. WPX reported an adjusted loss of $0.21 per share, which was $0.02 lower than analysts’ consensus.
Currently, ~79% of Wall Street analysts rate Murphy Oil (MUR) as a “hold” and ~21% of analysts rate it as a “sell.” There is no “buy” rating on the stock.
Murphy Oil (MUR) is set to report its 1Q16 earnings on May 4, 2016, after the market closes. For 1Q16, Wall Street analysts expect Murphy Oil to report an adjusted loss of $0.68 per share, compared with its 1Q15 loss of $1.11 per share.
Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. assigned Southwestern Energy (SWN) the highest target price of $18, which is ~69% higher than the closing price of $10.67 on April 21.
In its March Short-Term Energy Outlook report, the EIA forecast that the US natural gas supply-demand balance could average around 2.9 Bcf per day in 2016.
In its March report, the EIA stated that the US natural gas supply-demand gap could average 2.89 Bcf per day in 2016 and rise to 4.05 Bcf per day in 2017.
US natural gas prices have fallen for the third time in the last five trading sessions. Prices are following the long-term bearish trend and trading close to 16-year lows.
The EIA, in its November Short-Term Energy Outlook, reported that natural gas inventories for the week ending October 30 reached 3,929 billion cubic feet.
The US government’s global forecast model estimates that the weather will likely be colder than normal in November. Cold weather impacts the heating needs.
The current natural gas stocks are 11.8% more than the level of 3,468 Bcf in 2014. They’re also 4.1% greater than the five-year seasonal average of 3,724 Bcf.
Warm weather was the catalyst that killed the natural gas market in October. Prices fell 8% in October due to warmer-than-normal winter weather estimates.
For the week ending October 24, 2014, natural gas stocks rose by 87 Bcf. Mild winter weather and record production could push natural gas inventory higher.
According to the EIA, natural gas inventory rose 81 Bcf to 3,814 Bcf for the week ended October 16, 2015. It rose due to increasing natural gas production and a mild winter forecast.
The EIA released its weekly natural gas stockpile report on October 8. Natural gas stockpile rose 95 Bcf in the week ended October 2. Natural gas inventory rose 98 Bcf in the week ended September 25.
Natural gas inventories rose by 98 Bcf (billion cubic feet) to 3,538 Bcf in the week ending September 25, which was the 26th straight week of increases.
The EIA published the weekly natural gas report on May 7. Weekly natural gas inventories increased by 76 Bcf to 1,786 Bcf from 1,710 Bcf for the week ending May 1.
The EIA will publish the natural gas report tomorrow. The weekly gas in storage rose by 81 Bcf to 1,710 Bcf from 1,629 Bcf for the week ending April 24.
