What’s Next? CTAs Point to a Continuation of Long-Term Trends
After 2009, one of the industry’s worst performing groups has been CTAs. Now, that has changed. CTAs should continue to outperform.
Problem with reverting to ZLB In the previous article of this series, we discussed the scenario that would result if the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) were too early to squeeze the interest…
Charles Evans, the Chief of the Chicago Fed, estimates that the PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) price index will rise to 2% only by 2018.
The FOMC dropped “patience” from its guidance at its latest meeting in March 2015, but Charles Evans still wants the central bank to pursue that path.
Charles Evans said that he forecasts PCE inflation to get to 2% only in 2018. Do note that policymakers aren’t waiting for inflation to touch 2%
The growth rate low rate of the PCE price index, which is the US Federal Reserve’s favorite inflation measure, is Charles Evans’s main concern.
Evans opined that a goal-oriented approach to monetary policy is apt. But he pointed out that this approach is different from an “instrument-rule” approach.
Charles Evans, the chief of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, spoke at the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum in London on March 25.
Brazil’s inflation rate currently stands at 7.7%, according to the February reading reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics.
Germany’s EU-harmonized inflation rate stood at 0.1% in March on a year-over-year basis, against the -0.1% rate in February.
Oil prices remained low, though the small rebound we’d seen in February helped the PCE inflation rate rise from 0.2% in January to 0.3% in February.
Brazilian stocks continue to decline. A good chunk of this decline is due to the corruption scandal surrounding Brazilian oil giant Petróleo Brasileiro.
The stronger dollar (UUP) and weak global demand weighed down economic growth in the United States for the fourth quarter of 2014.
The United States is currently in the midst of a currency war. The strengthening dollar affects multinationals’ foreign revenues.
Poor consumption could lead to a subdued US economy. Bad weather is one reason for sluggish sales.
Consider investing in Japanese stocks, as Japan could see some reforms. Japanese companies are deploying cash by buying back shares and raising dividends.
European equities could perform well. Europe (IEV)(FEZ) has consistently faced recessionary pressures over the last few years.
A stronger dollar hurts US large-cap companies. The massive gain is mainly due to the divergence in the policies of major central banks.
Major headwinds have led to the underperformance of US stocks. US stocks could continue to underperform.
A stronger dollar, lofty valuations, and a looming rate hike are causing higher volatility in US stocks. Safe-haven assets revel in volatile stock markets.
But if I knew how to manage my portfolio safer and smarter than most hedge fund managers, I could realistically grow my wealth.