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OPEC’s Crude Oil Production: Time to Short Crude Oil Futures?

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Oct. 2 2017, Published 10:09 a.m. ET

Crude oil futures  

November US crude oil (SCO) (DBO) futures contracts fell 0.2% and were trading at $51.57 per barrel in electronic trading at 2:20 AM EST on October 2, 2017.

In contrast, E-Mini S&P 500 (SPY) December futures contracts rose 0.11% to 2,518.75 in electronic trading at 2:20 AM EST on October 2, 2017.

Brent (BNO) and US crude oil (UCO) prices are at a multi-month high. Higher crude oil prices are positive for oil and gas producers (RYE) (VDE) like Bill Barrett (BBG), Hess (HES), and Bonanza Creek Energy (BCEI).

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OPEC’s crude oil production in September

A Reuters survey estimates that OPEC’s crude oil production rose by 50,000 bpd (barrels per day) to 32.72 MMbpd (million barrels per day) in September 2017—compared to the previous month.

OPEC’s compliance with the production cut deal fell to 86% in September 2017. It was at 89% in August 2017. Meanwhile, OPEC’s crude oil production hit a 2017 high in July 2017.

OPEC’s production rose in September 2017 due to the rise in Iraq’s crude oil exports and Libya’s crude oil production. High crude oil production from OPEC is bearish for crude oil (BNO) (USO) prices. Lower crude oil prices have a negative impact on oil producers like Saudi Aramco, Rosneft, Chevron (CVX), National Iranian Oil Company, Qatar Petroleum, and Oman Oil Company.

Impact  

OPEC’s next meeting will be on November 30, 2017. Traders think that a lower compliance with the production cut deal and any expiry of the production cut deal could cause crude oil prices to fall.

In the next part of this series, we’ll look at how the US dollar impacts crude oil prices.

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