How Iran and Iraq’s Crude Oil Exports Could impact crude Oil Prices

Iraq is the second-largest crude oil producer in OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries). Iraq’s crude oil exports hit 3.98 MMbpd (million barrels per day) in September 2017, according to Bloomberg—its highest level since December 2016.

Any rise in Iraq’s crude oil exports and production would be bearish for crude oil (BNO) (UCO) prices. Lower or weaker oil prices have a negative impact on oil producers (XOP) (OIH) like National Iranian Oil, Kuwait Petroleum, Rosneft, and Energen (EGN).

Iran is the third-largest crude oil producer in OPEC. Iran’s crude oil exports hit 2.28 MMbpd in September 2017, according to Bloomberg—its highest level since February 2017. Crude oil production and exports rose after the US lifted sanctions on Iran in January 2016.

Any rise in Iran’s crude oil exports and production would be bearish for crude oil (BNO) (UCO) prices.

Iran and Iraq’s crude oil export rose as Saudi Arabia cut its crude oil exports to worldwide customers over the past few months. But the fight for market share has led to a rise in exports, and Iran and Iraq have ramped up crude oil exports to Asian and US customers.

Iraq exported 871,000 bpd of crude oil to the US in September 2017—almost double what it exported to the US in August 2017. Iraq’s crude oil exports to India averaged 794,000 bpd year-to-date—higher than Saudi Arabia’s exports to India.

The rise in crude oil exports from Iran and Iraq could offset some of the impact of the drop in exports by Saudi Arabia. However, record US crude oil exports could also impact Saudi Arabia’s crude oil export plans.

Any rise in crude oil exports from Iraq, Iran, and the US could increase supplies in the global market and pressure crude oil (BNO) (DBO) (USO) prices.

In the next part, we’ll look at how Saudi Arabia’s crude oil exports are impacting oil prices.