Russia’s Crude Oil Production Will Pressure the Crude Oil Market

Russia’s crude oil production rose to 10.84 MMbpd (million barrels per day) in June 2016—compared to the previous month—according to sources from the Russian Energy Ministry. Russia’s crude oil production rose by 0.15% month-over-month and 1.4% YoY (year-over-year). Production averaged 10.84 MMbpd in 2Q16. Russia’s crude oil production peaked at 10.9 MMbpd in January 2016—the highest level since the Soviet era.

Russia’s crude oil exports were above 5 MMbpd in June 2016. Exports fell by 3.4% month-over-month and rose 4.7% YoY. Russian oil producers like Rosneft and Lukoil had decreased production month-over-month.

Record investments in oil and gas exploration and production projects since 2011 will push Russia’s crude oil production to record levels in 2016. Since 2014, curbing investments into new oil and gas projects could slow down production in the coming years. Russia’s major income comes from oil and gas exports. In 2016, record production from Russia will continue to swing oil prices. Oil prices could be volatile in 2016. The Russian Energy Ministry is predicting production growth of 4.5%–4.9% in 2016.

The recent surge in oil prices benefits oil producers like Carrizo Oil & Gas (CRZO), Northern Oil & Gas (NOG), and Triangle Petroleum (TPLM).

ETFs like the Vanguard Energy ETF (VDE), the ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Crude Oil ETF (SCO), and the Fidelity MSCI Energy (FENY) are also influenced by volatile oil prices.

In the next part of this series, we’ll take a look at the supply and demand gap in the crude oil market.