Triangle Petroleum Corp

Crude oil prices were $54.1 per barrel on December 28—the highest since July 14, 2015. As of January 16, 2017, crude oil prices are 3.4% below their highs.

Libya’s crude oil production was at 1,030,000 bpd in July 2017. Production has risen ~60% from its levels in January 2017.

On February 22, the API will release its weekly crude oil inventory report. US crude oil inventories could have risen from February 10–17, 2017.

Libya’s National Oil Corporation reported that the country’s crude oil production rose by 300,000 bpd between September 2016 and January 2017.

The EIA estimates that OPEC’s crude oil production rose by 90,000 bpd to 31.71 MMbpd (million barrels per day) in April 2017—compared to March 2017.

November West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures contracts fell 0.8% and settled at $49.94 per barrel on October 17, 2016.

As of the end of April, crude oil prices had rallied by almost 70% since the lows of February 2016. But prices were still ~60% lower than in June 2014.

September US crude oil (BNO) (IEZ) (UCO) futures contracts fell 0.3% to $46.4 per barrel in electronic trading at 2:15 AM EST on July 19, 2017.

So far, crude oil prices and broader markets such as the S&P 500 (SPY) (SPX-INDEX) are diverging in 2017. SPY has risen 4% YTD (year-to-date).

Brent crude oil futures are trading below their 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages of $49.9, $51.6, $53.3, and $53.8 per barrel.

Crude oil prices rose on November 15, 2016. However, expectations of a bearish crude oil inventory report could pressure crude oil prices.

The EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) estimated that four-week average US gasoline demand fell by 80,000 bpd to 9,237,000 bpd on April 14–21.

On December 14, the Federal Reserve reported that it would raise the interest rate by 25 basis points. As a result, the US Dollar Index appreciated by 0.7%.

According to the EIA, global crude oil supply outages increased by 208,000 bpd or 14% to 1,738,000 bpd in December 2017—compared to November 2017.

December WTI crude oil futures contracts rose on October 21, 2016, due to expectations of OPEC and Russia reaching an agreement to cap production.

Crude oil has rallied by almost 40% in the past two months. But prices have fallen by 65% since June 2014. Oil prices have breached key moving averages.

April gasoline futures fell 1.3% to $1.58 per gallon on March 15, 2017. Prices fell despite the fall in US gasoline inventories.

Goldman Sachs (GS) thinks that a rise in production from OPEC, Russia, and the US in 2H18 could lead to renewed oversupply by the end of 2018.

The EIA estimated that OPEC’s spare crude oil production capacity fell by 36,277 bpd to 2.32 MMbpd in April 2017—compared to March 2017.

Market surveys estimate that Cushing crude oil inventories rose from March 3–10. A rise in crude oil inventories could pressure US crude oil prices.

US refineries operated at 91.5% of their operable capacity in the week ending May 5, 2017. The US refinery demand fell for the second consecutive week.

The EIA reported that monthly US crude oil production rose 196,000 bpd to 9.0 MMbpd in February 2017.

Steady world oil consumption would support oil prices in 2017. The change in world consumption is expected to average 1.6% in 2017.

US crude oil production fell by 9,000 bpd to 9,305,000 bpd on May 5–12, 2017. Production fell 0.1% week-over-week, but rose 5.8% year-over-year.

April WTI (West Texas Intermediate) crude oil (BNO) (IXC) (IYE) futures contracts rose 1.6% and settled at $54.45 per barrel on February 23, 2017.

The EIA reported that US gasoline demand rose by 114,000 bpd to 9.8 MMbpd from July 8–15, 2016.

TUSA is Triangle’s wholly owned E&P subsidiary located in the Williston Basin that generated ~$160 million of revenue and ~$110 million of EBITDA in 2013.

The fall in energy ETFs started after the fall in oil prices on July 5, 2016, and when Brexit concerns and supply-related fears resurfaced.

Van Eck Global launched the VanEck Vectors Oil Refiners ETF (CRAK) on August 18, 2015. CRAK is a good option for investors who want exposure to the energy sector but don’t expect energy prices to rise anytime soon.

A Wall Street Journal survey estimates that US crude oil prices could average $51 per barrel in 2018—$2 per barrel lower than previous estimates.

US crude oil production  The EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) estimates that US crude oil production rose by 2,000 bpd (barrels per day) to 9,530,000 bpd between August 18 and 25, 2017. Production rose 1,042,000 bpd, or 12.3%, from the same period in 2016. It has risen for three consecutive weeks to August 25, and has reached […]

September WTI (West Texas Intermediate) crude oil (OIH) (SCO) (DIG) futures contracts rose 0.5% to $47.81 per barrel in electronic trading at 1:50 AM EST on August 16, 2017.

August US crude oil (VDE) (IEZ) (XES) futures are trading above their 20-day moving average of $45 per barrel as of July 3, 2017.

The EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) reported that US crude oil production fell by 100,000 bpd to 9,250,000 bpd on June 16–23, 2017.

The EIA estimates that OECD’s crude oil inventories rose by 2.31 MMbbls (million barrels) or 0.1% to 3,021.5 MMbbls in May 2017—compared to April 2017.

According to its investor presentation released on May 17, 2017, Oasis Petroleum (OAS) holds a premier acreage position in the Williston Basin. This series will look at what we can expect from Oasis this year.

US gasoline inventories are 7.2% below their all-time high. The expectation of a fall in gasoline inventories could support gasoline prices.

A fall in Cushing inventories could benefit US crude oil (BNO) (SCO) (UCO) prices. Crude oil prices have risen 2.8% in the last four weeks.

The EIA estimated that four-week average US gasoline demand fell by 22,000 bpd (barrels per day) to 9,215,000 bpd on April 21–28, 2017.

The US Dollar Index fell 1% to 98.9 for the week ending April 28, 2017. The dollar hit a high of 103.8 on January 3, 2017—the highest level in 14 years.

The EIA reported that US gasoline inventories fell by 0.9 MMbbls (million barrels) to 256.2 MMbbls between January 27, 2017, and February 3, 2017.

For the week ending December 9, 2016, US gasoline inventories were 5% higher than they were in the same period in 2015.

The US stock market is volatile because the election is right around the corner. The US presidential election will take place on November 8, 2016.

US crude oil (UWTI) (IXC) (ERY) (BNO) (RYE) inventories rose by 4.9 MMbbls (million barrels) to 474 MMbbls between September 30 and October 7.

A Bloomberg survey indicated that Nigeria’s crude oil production fell by 130,000 bpd (barrels per day) to 1.4 MMbpd (million barrels per day) in August 2016 compared to the previous month.

Russia’s crude oil production rose to 10.84 MMbpd in June 2016—compared to the previous month—according to sources from the Russian Energy Ministry.

The US (SPY) (VOO) consumer sentiment index was 93.5 for June’s final reading, according to the University of Michigan survey released on June 24, 2016.

India’s Petroleum, Planning, and Analysis Cell reported that India’s crude oil demand rose by 0.4 MMbpd in April. It’s 10% higher than the same period in 2015.

As of June 17, 2016, Triangle Petroleum (TPLM) had the highest implied volatility among upstream stocks at 225.5. Its 15-day average implied volatility was 232.5.

The Alerian MLP ETF (AMLP) outperformed other energy ETFs from June 9–16, 2016. Falling crude oil has less of an impact on midstream companies.

Between June 7 and June 14, 2016, crude oil (USO) fell by ~3.7% while the US dollar index (UUP) rose by around 1.2%.

The one-month correlation of crude oil prices with the US Dollar Index was -9.2% on May 27. It shows the US dollar’s inverse impact on crude oil prices.

Between May 24 and May 31, crude oil gained about 0.98% despite the fact that the US Dollar Index also rallied around 0.33%.

In this series, we will analyze how badly Continental Resources (CLR) was hit by weak oil prices, and what measures it has taken to counter this situation. In 2015, crude oil accounted for 66% of CLR’s total production and 85% of its revenues.

The US (SPY) (VOO) CPI (consumer price index) rose 0.4% on a month-over-month basis in April, according to a US Department of Labor report on May 17, 2016.

China’s crude oil production fell to the lowest level in four years. It fell by 5.6% YoY (year-over-year) to 16.6 metric tons in April 2016.

Between September 2007 and April 2013, the crude oil (USO) and dollar index (UUP) one-month correlation was positive in only a few instances.

The last one-month correlation of crude oil with the US Dollar Index spot stood at 2.4% on May 6, 2016. This is a low correlation.

In this part of the series, we’ll look at some more bullish drivers for crude oil prices over the long term.

Iran is the third-largest oil producer in OPEC. Bloomberg projects that its crude oil production rose by 300,000 bpd to 3.5 MMbpd in April 2016 over March.

The IEA (International Energy Agency) estimates that crude oil production from non-OPEC producers could see the biggest decline in 25 years.

May gasoline futures trading in NYMEX rose by 0.7% and settled at $1.39 per gallon on April 6. Gasoline prices rallied almost 30% from the lows in February.

Seasonality plays a key role in influencing crude oil prices. Crude oil prices tend to rise in August due to the summer driving season, which results in a rise in gasoline demand.

The EIA reported that the US crude oil inventory rose by 2.3 MMbbls (million barrels) to 534.8 MMbbls between March 18, 2016, and March 25, 2016.

Crude oil prices resumed their long-term downward trend yesterday. Bearish oversupply factors and Iran’s nuclear deal could drag WTI prices lower.