Vanguard 500 Index Inv

The three US equity indices that we review in this weekly series fell from December 8 to December 15, 2015, after a rebound in oil prices.

In a recent interview, Jim Rogers said, “I’m on record as saying that we’re going to have a recession certainly within a year or two.”

Billionaire investor and bond guru Jeffrey Gundlach also shared his view on bond yields in an interview with CNBC.

In 4Q16, US (SPY) (QQQ) (IVV) (VFINX) real GDP grew at an annual rate of 1.9% compared to a 3.5% rise in 3Q16.

AMFQX is an alternative mutual fund that seeks to generate positive absolute returns with a low correlation to the returns of broad stock and bond markets.

Between April 6 and April 13, 2017, the Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) fell 1.9%.

According to the recent 13F filings, Soros Fund Management has increased its position in the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) by 36% in 1Q17 compared to the previous quarter.

EBSAX seeks to generate attractive risk-adjusted returns across a broad range of market conditions.

The Brexit referendum aftermath has translated to gains for certain hedge funds, while washing away earlier gains for others.

The rising credit level is a warning sign for the economy, and Gross believes this situation may trigger a crisis like the 2008 global debt crisis.

Some of the AMFQX fund’s top holdings include floating-rate notes of Apple, JPMorgan Chase, Turquoise Hill Resources, and Hewlett-Packard Enterprise.

At the end of 4Q15, the fund had an overall market beta of zero compared to the beta of 0.04 of its benchmark Morningstar Managed Futures Category Average.

GATEX could increase the exposure of an investor’s portfolio in the equity market. It has less volatility risk than the equity markets.

The Gateway Fund – Class A (GATEX) seeks to attain capital appreciation through its equity market investments. It has less risk compared to equity markets.

All of JPMNX’s top holdings except CJPXX were trading below their 20-day and 100-day moving averages as of January 29, 2016.

Last week, US crude oil May futures fell 2.7%, and natural gas April futures rose 4.3%. The broad market S&P 500 Index fell 1.3%.

Let’s take a look at where we are in the business cycle, what factors are at play, and what stands to work given current macroeconomic influences.

In a recent interview with CNBC, Fidelity’s Jurrien Timmer shared his views on equity markets, corporate earnings, and Europe (VGK) (IEV).

During the Jackson Hole Symposium, the Federal Reserve chair, Janet Yellen, already hinted that if the August jobs report provided a strong performance, there was a chance for a rate hike during its September 2016 meeting.

Bill Gross said in his July 2017 Investment Outlook that central banks in major developed nations maintained an ultra-low monetary policy for nearly a decade.

In August 2015, VRX stock was at its historic peak of over $250. It is now below $25, as the stock has lost over 90% in the past year.

Billionaire investor Jeffrey Gundlach had positioned himself expecting Bremain to pass. Gundlach, however, sold off his newly acquired European stock positions before the Brexit results impacted the Market.

The September non-farm payroll report indicated a fall in the US labor market (SPY) (VFINX) compared to August 2017.

In an interview with CNBC’s Halftime Report on August 10, Howard Marks shared his views on market valuation, risk in the market, and FANG stocks.

The July US manufacturing PMI (purchasing managers’ index) report indicates a strong improvement in the US (SPY) (QQQ) (VFINX) business climate after a gradual decline.

Marriott International has provided a return of 22.5% so far in this year.

According to data provided by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the US consumer price index, or inflation index, fell 0.1% in May 2017.

In his investment outlook for April, Gross questioned whether Trump’s economic agenda could create a 3.0% growth in the economy.

Cooperman believes that this market rally reflects a government that is being run by a capitalist.

The US Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index showed a massive improvement in March 2017.

On March 15, 2017, the Fed announced its much-awaited interest rate hike—the first increase this year. It’s the third rate hike in the past decade.

Bill Gross said the economic environment is showing momentum. Inflation figures are also improving.

Integrated energy companies such as ExxonMobil are affected to varying degrees by volatility in crude oil prices. XOM’s correlation coefficient with WTI stands at 0.56.

The US Consumer Sentiment Index improved in January 2017. It stood at 98.1 in January 2017 compared to 98.2 in December 2016.

Icahn believes that the economy needs the help of both monetary and fiscal stimulus. He thinks the economy can’t run with a zero interest-rate policy.

According to Carl Icahn, if the Fed doesn’t raise rates, it will indicate that we’re in a great bubble. He said the Fed has created a “false market” by not hiking the rates.

Carl Icahn discussed his current stance on the market (SPY) (QQQ) at the Delivering Alpha Conference. He discussed the warning signs in the market.

When the 2008 credit crisis affected the S&P 500 Index (SPY), we saw a large shift in valuations and the index level.

The major event of the mid-1990s was the dot-com bubble, when Internet businesses experienced exponential growth. However, this wasn’t earnings growth.

The final Markit Germany manufacturing PMI stood at 54.5 in June compared to 52.1 in May. It was above the initial estimate of 54.4 and the highest gain since February 2014.

In recent years, the performance of various mutual funds and hedge funds followed by an active fund management strategy haven’t been so impressive.

Stanley Druckenmiller said at the Sohn Investment Conference that he sees the current investment environment as similar to the period before the 2008 crisis.

The US Services PMI (purchasing managers’ index) stood at 51.2 in May—compared to 52.8 in April. It didn’t meet the Market expectation of 53.1.

The US GDP growth stood at 0.8% in 1Q16. It’s better than the 0.5% improvement initially reported by the BEA. However, it’s the worst performance since 2015.

US stock indexes fell last week. It came after expectations of an interest rate hike in the United States revived after solid consumer inflation data.

Studied in conjunction, stock market and economic conditions give clear indications of the business cycle phase we are in.

China’s boom in credit growth, which we discussed earlier in this series, could affect China’s (FXI)(YINN)(ASHR) growth.

According to data provided by the US Department of Labor, unemployment claims fell by 6,000 to 247,000 claims for the week ending April 16, 2016.

According to Ray Dalio, the Fed needs to study the long-term debt cycle in order to understand the huge downside risks that currently face the US economy.

Ray Dalio doesn’t see the next downturn happening anytime this year or the next. However, he does believe it will come.

The US CPI rose 0.1% in March. However, it didn’t meet analysts’ expectation of 0.2%. The rise in consumer prices is mainly due to the rebound in gasoline prices.

Rising political unrest in Brazil raised hopes among investors for a political reformation. The real is reacting positively to rising anti-government agitation.

The US ISM manufacturing PMI rose to 51.8 in March from 49.5 in February. It beat the Market’s expectations and rose for the first time in the last six months.

The unemployment rate doesn’t help us gauge the extent of labor market slack. The actual employment gap that exists also consists of a slack component.

Let’s see why US stock indexes fell. The three US equity indexes that we review in this December recap series fell from November 30 to December 31, 2015.

EBSAX has given a total return of 10.8% to its investors since its inception on March 1, 2013.

The monthly and quarterly returns of the S&P energy sector index fell by 6.7% and 17.4%, respectively, for the period ending September 2015.

Nearly 68% of the US GDP is composed of PCE or consumer spending. The negative value of net exports shows that the United States imports more than it exports, and this eats into the total economic output.

As exchange-traded funds (or ETFs) continue to gain popularity on account of offering investors a low-cost alternative to many popular mutual funds, the case for ETFs remains strong.