SSgA SPDR S&P Global Natural Resources ETF

Goldman Sachs (GS) now expects copper prices to fall to $4,000 per metric ton this year. In its previous guidance, Goldman had expected copper to fall to $4,500 per metric ton in 2016.

Southern Copper’s financial performance has weakened over the last couple of years. Its falling revenues are largely attributable to copper price volatility.

Australia’s billionaire Gina Rinehart’s $10 billion Roy Hill iron ore project expects to start shipping iron ore to world markets starting in October 2015.

Freeport’s asset sales program has restored investor confidence, helping it to trade at a higher valuation multiple.

Major iron ore producers are further reducing costs to weather the current market downturn.

Earlier, Alcoa projected a 1.1 million metric ton deficit for global aluminum markets. It revised down its deficit projection during its 2Q16 conference call.

Higher gold prices couldn’t have come at a better time for Freeport. The company is grappling with sagging metal prices in its core copper mining business.

Glencore’s metals and mining segment was the second-biggest contributor to its 1H15 revenues.

China’s unwrought aluminum exports rose 20.4% YoY in August. Although the increase is a concern, things aren’t as bad as suggested by the big YoY spike.

RIO’s hard coking coal production was up 10% YoY to 4 million tons in 9M15 due to improved production rates at Kestrel.

According to consensus estimates compiled by Bloomberg, Southern Copper (SCCO) has a one-year price target of $27.82—7.5% above its current stock price.

During its 3Q16 earnings call, Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) reduced its production guidance. The company expects its 2016 copper shipments to be 4.8 billion pounds.

During its 1Q17 earnings call, the market will look for ArcelorMittal’s commentary on the steel price outlook.

Rio reported a loss of $69 million in 1H17, compared with its loss of $56 million in 1H16.

Oil and copper are two critical commodities that China is deficient in and must import in large quantities.

Vehicle sales in China, including trucks and buses, fell 2.2% YoY (year-over-year) to 2.1 million in April 2017.

China’s (MCHI) iron ore port inventory is a key indicator that reflects the commodity’s supply-and-demand balance.

Analysts estimate that Cliffs’ net debt will fall by 8% by the end of 2016 as compared to 2015.

Elliott Management plans to engage in a “constructive dialogue” with Alcoa’s board about Alcoa’s split transaction and “additional available opportunities to maximize shareholder value.”

In July, China imported 360,000 metric tons of unwrought copper and copper products. That was a YoY (year-over-year) increase of only 3.4%.

China’s (FXI) auto sales rose to 2.6 million in September 2016 from 2.1 million in August. These auto sales were 26% higher than the same period in 2015.

A major factor impacting mining companies’ revenues and earnings is commodity price—especially for iron ore—and analysts’ ratings take cues from prices.

Iron ore inventories at Chinese ports have risen 11% YTD in 2017. Port inventories stood at 127 million tons on February 10.

A sustained rise or fall in coal shipments is a significant indicator that affects the stock value of coal producers (KOL).

Copper volumes are key for companies that produce copper. In this article, we’ll look at Rio Tinto’s (RIO) copper production profile.

Southern Copper has historically traded at a premium to Freeport.

China’s iron ore port inventory reflects supply and demand. It also indicates the safety net and imbalance between iron ore supplies and steel mill demand.

Rio’s hard coking coal production was 8% lower YoY (year-over-year) in the first half of 2016.

China’s automotive industry is the second-largest steel consumer after the real estate sector.

In the first eight months of 2015, China’s refined copper imports are down 6.7% compared to the corresponding period last year.

Steel Dynamics is expected to release its 4Q15 earnings on January 25 after the markets close. Analysts expect Steel Dynamics to deliver EPS of $0.066 per share.

Bank of America expects spot HRC (hot-rolled coil) prices to rise to $455 per short ton in 2016.

Vale’s CFO, Luciano Siani Pires, said during Vale Day on December 6, 2017, that the company deserves a rerating of its valuation.

Iron ore port inventories in China reflect the balance between demand and supply. Usually, if the iron ore isn’t used up by steel mills, it piles up at ports.

Inventories at China’s ports reflect the balance between demand and supply. The ore that isn’t used up by steel mills typically piles up at ports.

Miners (GNR) producing high-grade ore—such as Rio Tinto (RIO), Vale (VALE), and BHP (BHP)(BBL)—are enjoying higher premiums.

Vale’s CFO (chief financial officer) Luciano Siani Pires said during Vale Day on December 6, 2017, that the company deserves a rerating of its valuation.

It’s important for investors to keep tabs on iron ore port inventories in China. Inventory levels show the balance between demand and supply for iron ore.

The iron ore port inventories have remained elevated, reaching ~141.5 million tons in June 2017.

The iron ore inventories at Chinese ports determine the supply and demand balance for steelmaking commodities (GNR).

The port inventories on Chinese ports totaled 139.2 million tons for the week ended August 11, 2017.

Of the 18 analysts covering BHP Billiton (BHP), ten of them have issued a “buy” rating. Six of them have given BHP a “hold.”

Rio Tinto’s (RIO) stock hit a new 52-week high of $47.85 on August 7.

China’s iron ore port inventory shows the steelmaking commodity’s (GNR) demand and supply balance. It also measures the imbalance between supply and steel mill demand.

China’s iron ore port inventory reflects the commodity’s (GNR) supply and demand balance.

China’s auto sales China’s automotive industry is the second-largest steel consumer after the real estate sector. In this part of our series on iron ore, we’ll look at recent trends in the Chinese automotive industry. We’ll also analyze how auto sales could shape up in 2017. Auto sales growth slows Vehicle sales in China, including […]

China’s iron ore port inventory China’s iron ore port inventory reflects the commodity’s supply and demand balance. It also indicates the safety net and imbalance between iron ore supplies and steel mill demand. High inventory levels are a sign of weak demand for raw materials, and vice versa. High inventory levels Iron ore inventories at Chinese ports have […]

The third element of Elliott Funds’ “value unlock” plan for BHP Billiton (BHP) (BBL) is the adoption of a policy of consistent and optimized capital returns to shareholders.

In 1Q17, Vale SA (VALE) outperformed its peers by rising 24.7%.

China’s iron ore port inventory reflects the commodity’s supply and demand balance.

In this part of our series on iron ore, we’ll look at recent trends in the Chinese automotive industry. We’ll also analyze how auto sales could shape up in 2017.

As most market participants are calling for an iron ore price correction in 2017, it’s important to consider how the supply side of things could shape up this year.

China’s iron ore port inventory reflects the commodity’s supply and demand balance. It also indicates the safety net and imbalance between iron ore supply and steel mill demand.

China’s auto sales rose to 2.9 million in November 2016 from 2.7 million in October 2016. Auto sales in November were 17.0% higher than the same period in 2015.

Iron ore inventories at Chinese ports have reached a two-year high. For the week ended December 16, 2016, inventories stood at 111.6 million tons.

China’s automobile sales The automotive industry is the second-largest steel consumer after the real estate sector. In this part of our series on iron ore in 2016, we’ll look at recent trends in the Chinese automotive industry. Car sales rise China’s (FXI) auto sales rose to 2.7 million in October 2016 from 2.6 million in […]

In 3Q16, Vale SA’s (VALE) ferrous division accounted for ~81.0% of its adjusted EBITDA. EBITDA for ferrous minerals came in at $2.5 billion, which was $357.0 million higher than 2Q16.

China’s iron ore port inventory China’s (MCHI) iron ore port inventory, a key indicator, reflects the commodity’s supply-and-demand balance. It also indicates the safety net and imbalance between the iron ore supply and steel mill demand. A high inventory is a sign of weak demand for raw materials, and vice versa. Inventories highest in two years While […]

As the euphoria over Donald Trump’s election win subsides, the market’s attention has shifted to other upcoming events.

Of the 23 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg, only four rated Southern Copper (SCCO) a “buy,” while seven rated it a “sell.” Most of the analysts rate the stock a “hold.”

Because China is the world’s largest steel consumer, it’s important for investors in companies such as U.S. Steel, ArcelorMittal, POSCO, and Gerdau to keep track of the Chinese steel industry.

According to the consensus estimates compiled by Bloomberg, analysts expect Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) to post EBITDA of ~$7.0 billion in the next four quarters.

China’s passenger car sales rose 26% year-over-year in August. This is the fourth consecutive month that car sales have risen in the double digits.

Spot coking coal prices have gained almost 165% since the beginning of the year, including a 50% gain in September alone.

Vale SA (VALE) has a forward EV-to-EBITDA multiple of 6.7x, which is 10% higher than its five-year historical average.

U.S. Steel’s earnings estimate Since the spectacular rally in US (DIA) spot steel prices between March and June 2016, we’ve seen some downward pressure on flat-rolled steel prices. Spot HRC (hot-rolled coil) prices have fallen more than $100 per short ton from their June peak. However, despite these steep correction in HRC prices, we’ve not […]

One of the factors that helped the rally in metals and mining shares (GNR) this year has been the improvement in China’s economic indicators.

Copper prices are a key driver for Freeport-McMoRan (FCX). The company expects its EBITDA for the second half of 2016 to rise or fall for every increase or decrease in copper prices.

Currently, the benchmark iron ore contract for delivery to China is hovering at $59 per metric ton. So far, iron ore has gained 34% this year.

On a year-to-date basis, the aluminum inventory for LME-registered warehouses has fallen by more than 668,000 metric tons.

Currently, U.S. Steel trades at 3.82x its expected EBITDA for the next four quarters. This is much lower when we look at U.S. Steel’s historic valuation multiples.

China’s passenger car sales rose to 1.6 million in July 2016, a year-over-year (or YoY) increase of 26.5%. This was the highest growth rate in three-and-a-half years.

Commodity prices are expected to remain buoyant. Year-to-date, cotton prices have risen 7.4% after a positive export sales report from the USDA.

The construction sector is the leading steel consumer in the US. It accounts for ~40% of the total steel demand.

Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) expects its net debt to fall to $13.2 billion by the end of 2017, even if copper prices average $2 per pound over this period.

Currently, Alcoa (AA) trades at 7.69x its next four quarters’ expected EBITDA. The company’s forward EV-to-EBITDA multiple has averaged 7.73x in the last three years and 7.2x in the last five years.

US Spot hot rolled coil prices have risen in the ballpark of $200 per short ton in 2016. Spot cold rolled coil prices have risen by ~$300 per short ton.

China’s aluminum exports rose by 10% year-over-year in 2015. Facing flak from most of its trading partners, China announced late last year that it would curtail its excess aluminum capacity.

Earlier this year, Freeport-McMoRan’s (FCX) export permit in Indonesia was suspended, which the company acknowledged in its 4Q15 earnings call.

Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) discovered the Grasberg mine in 1988 and began open pit mining at the site two years later.

Revenues One of the key features of steel companies’ 2Q16 financial performance has been lower-than-expected revenues. All the steel companies in our coverage of stocks missed consensus revenue estimates in 2Q16. We should note that steel companies’ revenues are functions of shipments and average selling prices. Steel companies’ shipments generally depend on end-user demand as […]

During its 2Q16 earnings conference call, Norsk Hydro raised its 2016 global aluminum demand growth projection to 4%–5%.

One day after its 2Q16 results, Archer Daniels Midland declared a cash dividend of $0.30 per share on the company’s common stock on August 3.

Rio Tinto (RIO) restructured its divisions in 2016. While coal moved out of the copper division into minerals, diamonds were moved to copper.

In this article, we’ll have a look at Rio Tinto’s (RIO) cost performance and realized prices for its Copper and Diamonds division.

Rio Tinto reported its 1H16 results on August 3, 2016. Its underlying earnings came in at $1.6 billion, 7% ahead of consensus expectations of $1.5 billion.

Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) closed at $12.40 on August 2, 2016, falling ~0.6% from its previous day’s close.

U.S. Steel posted adjusted EBITDA of $134 million in 2Q16—its highest since 4Q14. It generated negative EBITDA for two consecutive quarters prior to 2Q16.

There are several metrics that you can use to measure a company’s profitability, but for companies in the commodities space, EBITDA is generally used.

Because 98% of mined iron ore goes into steelmaking, the demand for iron ore is related to China’s auto sector performance.

For 2016, Archer Daniels Midland plans to balance its capital allocation framework. It advanced the strategy by selling a 50% interest in its Brazilian port in 2015.

Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) released its 2Q16 earnings on July 26 before the markets opened. Let’s take a closer look.

China’s (MCHI) iron ore port inventory is a key indicator that reflects the commodity’s supply and demand balance.

One of the factors driving US (DIA) and global steel prices this year is the trend in Chinese steel prices.

BHP Billiton’s iron ore production for its fiscal 2016 was 227 million tons. This was slightly lower than BHP’s guidance of 230 million tons.

Rio Tinto’s (RIO) Diamond & Minerals segment is going through a rough patch. Titanium dioxide’s feedstock and uranium’s demand remain weak due to high inventories.

Under its transformation strategy, Alcoa has turned into a diversified engineering company. It reported 2Q16 EPS of $0.15 after adjusting for special items.

Chinese steel prices rose steeply in March and early April. However, we’ve seen a correction since then.

Iron ore majors have cut production estimates by 10 million tons for 2016. But they’re still focused on lifting production in the medium term.

Over the last few quarters, several aluminum companies have been gradually moving away to the alumina price index (or API).