Aluminum Corporation Of China Limited.

The Section 232 findings were released on February 16. Between February 19 and March 16, LME aluminum has fallen ~$200 per metric ton.

We should remember that the core issue facing the global steel and aluminum industries is global in nature and not necessarily limited to the US market.

Alcoa (AA) expects global aluminum demand to exceed supply in 2018 on China’s supply-side reforms.

China exported 370,000 metric tons of unwrought aluminum in September, compared to 410,000 metric tons in August.

According to consensus estimates compiled by Thomson Reuters, Alcoa is expected to post revenues of $2.97 billion in 3Q17.

For aluminum producers, the all-in aluminum price consists of the price of aluminum plus physical aluminum premiums. These premiums are regional in nature.

Since China is the largest aluminum consumer, it’s important for investors to keep track of the country’s aluminum demand (ACH) (FXI).

Aluminum prices have gained more than 22% so far in 2017. This trend was preceded by a 13.6% rise in 2016.

China produced ~2.76 million metric tons of aluminum in April—a YoY increase of 7.6%. Its production has risen 12.0% YoY in the first four months of 2017.

Century Aluminum (CENX) was among the best-performing aluminum stocks (NHYDY) (ACH) (SOUHY) last year with gains of 94%.

In fiscal 2016, Alcoa (AA) produced 45.0 million bone dry metric tons of bauxite, 13.2 million metric tons of alumina, and 2.42 million metric tons of aluminum.

One reason US aluminum producers find it hard to compete is because the cost of electricity is higher in the United States. Chinese producers allegedly get a power subsidy.

While the packaging sector’s demand is more or less stable, the construction and automotive sectors’ demands tend to influence global aluminum demand.

Higher Chinese aluminum production could spoil the party that companies such as Alcoa and Century Aluminum (CENX) are currently enjoying.

Alcoa could command a scarcity premium. Would investors pay a premium to play the aluminum space that’s saddled with massive Chinese overcapacity?

Alcoa (AA) has an iconic past. The company was the world’s second-largest aluminum producer in 2007, but last year, it was ranked fourth.

China’s economic growth rates could be impacted when Donald Trump takes office. His tough stance on imports from China could be negative for its economy.

Chinese aluminum demand has been better this year due to the stimulus from the government. The higher demand supported aluminum prices.

Although China’s real estate demand indicators started to show signs of moderation after the big rise earlier this year, car sales continued to swell.

Since China is the world’s largest aluminum consumer, it’s important to keep track of China’s aluminum demand indicators.

There’s been a broad-based rally in commodity prices since Trump won the election. But several fundamental factors are also supporting aluminum prices.

Alcoa was the world’s second-largest aluminum producer in 2007, but last year, the company was ranked fourth.

In this article, we’ll see what Donald Trump’s presidency could mean for Alcoa and other aluminum producers, which include Century Aluminum and Norsk Hydro.

China exported 350,000 metric tons of unwrought aluminum in October. Chinese aluminum exports fell ~1.8% YoY in the first ten months of 2016.

Donald Trump appears to favor a more aggressive trade policy—regularly citing job losses as a result of imports from countries, especially China (FXI).

Aluminum markets have been in a surplus for almost a decade now. However, some observers see the market headed for a deficit in 2016.

During their respective 2Q16 earnings calls, some aluminum producers said that they expect Chinese aluminum production to rise in 2H16.

After the split, the new Alcoa (AA) will house the business units that are currently under the Primary Metals and Alumina segments. We’ll look at the challenges that Alcoa could face once it is listed as a separate company.

Aluminum producers have been blaming their woes on Chinese aluminum exports. China’s aluminum exports rose by 10% YoY in 2015.

Most aluminum producers’ earnings were received well by markets. Alcoa (AA) saw an upward price action of 5.4% after its earnings release.

China exported 390,000 metric tons of unwrought aluminum in July. This represents a YoY (year-over-year) decline of 9.3% for Chinese aluminum exports.

US Midwest aluminum premiums are currently quoted at $0.07 per pound. Premiums have fallen slightly in July and are now down more than 22% year-to-date.

After the split, the new Alcoa (AA) will house the business units that are currently under the Primary Metals and Alumina segment.

In a major announcement yesterday, MSCI (MSCI) decided not to include China A shares in its Emerging Markets Index (EEM).

For aluminum producers, the all-in aluminum price consists of the aluminum price plus regional aluminum premiums. Aluminum premium is a surcharge that consumers pay on top of prevailing prices.

According to data released by the International Aluminum Institute, China produced 2.5 million metric tons of aluminum in December—a YoY increase of ~1%.

The spread between the offshore and onshore yuan creates arbitrage opportunities for traders as the value diverges between the two currencies.

There have been conflicting signals coming from China (FXI). Recent reports suggest that China might buy 1 million tons of aluminum from domestic smelters.

The usage of aluminum in automobiles has been gradually increasing, as it improves vehicle performance, reduces CO2 emissions, and boosts fuel economy.

Chinalco announced aluminum cuts of 530,000 tons in October. However, it will now be cutting production by only 150,000 tons.

The Singapore dollar fell compared to the US dollar on November 23, 2015. Inflation reports showed deflationary pressures increasing in the economy.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics of China, industrial production in China rose 5.6% in October compared to 5.7% in September. The reading was below market expectations of 5.8%.

US Midwest aluminum premiums were stable at $0.07 per pound in October. However, on a year-to-date basis, aluminum premiums have fallen more than 70%.

On November 2, 2015, spot aluminum closed at $1,463 per metric ton on the London Metals Exchange. Spot aluminum prices were down more than 7.5% in October.

The Singapore dollar gained against the US dollar on October 14, 2015. The GDP (gross domestic product) grew ahead of the forecasts in the third quarter.

The peers outperformed Alcoa based on the net profit margin, EPS, and PBV ratio. However, Alcoa is way ahead of its peers based on the current ratio.

Alcoa (AA) has a market cap of $14.42 billion. Its YTD (year-to-date) price movement is falling day by day. Alcoa’s income has fallen every quarter.

The fact that major economies including Russia and Japan are slowing down is among the global challenges facing the aluminum industry.

Alcoa’s value-added business is expected to be a key driver in 2015. This segment is largely immune from aluminum price volatility.