US refinery crude oil demand
The EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) reported that US refinery crude oil (BNO) (PXI) (USL) (ERY) demand rose by 57,000 bpd (barrels per day) to 16,474,000 bpd from December 2–9, 2016. US refinery crude oil demand rose 0.3% week-over-week, but fell 0.8% YoY (year-over-year). US refineries operated at 90.5% of their operable capacity in the week ending December 9, 2016.
US crude oil imports
US crude oil imports fell by 943,000 bpd to 7,360,000 bpd from December 2–9, 2016. Imports fell 11.4% week-over-week and YoY.
US crude oil inventories
The fall in US crude oil imports led to the fall in US crude oil inventories from December 2–9, 2016. The rise in US refinery crude oil demand contributed to the fall in US crude oil inventories for the same period. However, the rise in US crude oil production, that we discussed in the previous part of this series, could have limited the fall in US crude oil inventories for the same period.
A rise in exports could have contributed to the fall in inventories. Read Are US Crude Oil Exports Game Changers for the Crude Oil Market? for more on US crude oil exports. For more on US crude oil inventories, read Part 2 of this series.
US crude oil production estimates
The EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) estimates that US crude oil production will average 8,860,000 bpd in 2016 and 8,780,000 bpd in 2017.
A possible rise in US crude oil production in 2017 after Donald Trump’s surprise victory could increase that number. It could pressure US crude oil prices. US crude oil production averaged 9.4 MMbpd in 2015. For more on crude oil prices, read Part 1 of this series.
Lower crude oil prices could have a negative impact on oil producers’ earnings like Apache (APA), ExxonMobil (XOM), Chesapeake Energy (CHK), PDC Energy (PDCE), Cobalt International Energy (CIE), Synergy Resources (SYRG), and Continental Resources (CLR).
The ups and downs in crude oil prices impact funds such as the United States Oil ETF (USO), the Direxion Daily Energy Bull 3x Shares ETF (ERX), the iShares U.S. Energy ETF (IYE), the Vanguard Energy ETF (VDE), the SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (XOP), the ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Crude Oil ETF (SCO), and the PowerShares DWA Energy Momentum ETF (PXI).
Read Saudi Arabia: Weather Will Be a Key Demand Driver of Oil in 2H16, OPEC Cuts Production: How Will Crude Oil React?, Winners and Losers in Energy after the US Election Results for more on crude oil.
Read Contango Market and OPEC: Will They Impact Crude Oil Prices? and Will Crude Oil Prices Test 3 Digits Again? to learn about crude oil price forecasts.
For ongoing analysis, visit Market Realist’s Upstream Oil and Gas page.