Toll Brothers Inc

Most Recent

  • uploads///Mortgage Rates
    Consumer

    Mortgage rates fall as bonds sell off, affecting homebuilders

    The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose 12 basis points as the ten-year yield rose 10 basis points, and TBAs sold off. With the refinance boom over, originators are overstaffed.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Fannie Mae Attitudes about housing expected px appreciation
    Consumer

    Why consumers are more conservative about housing than the pros

    In the latest survey, consumers expect home prices to rise by 2.9% over the next 12 months. This is flat month-over-month and down 100 basis points year-over-year.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///MR consumer sentiment
    Consumer

    Consumer sentiment falls, another warning about the economy?

    The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index is a leading indicator for the U.S. economy The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index is an important indicator of the consumer’s perception of the U.S. economy. Similar to other consumer confidence measures, it asks consumers about their views on the current economic conditions and their […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Lennar Revenues
    Consumer

    Lennar reports increases in units and prices in 2nd quarter 2014

    For the second quarter, Lennar reported $1.64 billion in revenues. This is an increase of 29% year-over-year. Homebuilding revenues increased 28%, to $1.6 billion from $1.3 billion in the second quarter of 2013.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///MVA
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Housing Stocks Rallied Then Came to a Halt in December

    Housing has been a bright spot in the US economy. But over the past month, housing stocks haven’t been performing well. ITB, a housing-focused fund, has fallen 4.7%.

    By Lara Sheldon
  • uploads///NAHB Homebuilder Sentiment Index
    Consumer

    Homebuilder sentiment leaps in June

    The National Association of Homebuilder Sentiment Index is a closely-watched measure of future building activity The National Association of Homebuilders Sentiment Index measures the confidence of homebuilders. It gauges builder perceptions of current and future sales of single family residences and asks them to characterize them as “good,” “fair,” or “poor.”  It also asks the […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Distressed Sales
    Consumer

    Distressed Home Sales Fall

    Distressed Home sales are tracked by CoreLogic in their monthly Market Pulse Distressed Sales and shadow inventory are closely related. Distressed sales include Real Estate Owned (REO) and short sales. REO sales are generally foreclosures, while short sales are below the current outstanding debt on the property. Distressed supply will put a damper on pricing as […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Mortgage Rates
    Consumer

    Why mortgage rates have been flat with the bond market, at 4.17%

    The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was flat at 4.17%, as the ten-year yield rose 1 basis point, while TBAs rallied. With the refinance boom over, originators are overstaffed

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Government Spending
    Consumer

    Does the economy need a government spending shot in the arm?

    Do we need a new New Deal? Construction spending doesn’t have to be simply residential (or private construction). Public construction also matters (however, it’s less than half of private construction dollars). The use of federal construction dollars to increase demand in the economy has been an issue of tremendous debate, with one side believing that […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///MR Retail Sales
    Consumer

    Retail sales increase 0.2% in July, homebuilder opportunity ahead

    Retail sales data gives analysts insight into the strength of the consumer Consumption is the biggest driver of the U.S. economy and accounts for 70% of GDP. Consumption has been relatively subdued since the recession began, as Americans have boosted their savings rate and spent only on essentials. The real estate bubble drove consumption in […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Construction Spending
    Consumer

    Why construction spending pulls back in June

    Construction spending is just off its post-recession high, but it’s still depressed—current levels equate to mid-2003 spending levels—construction spending peaked at $1.2 trillion in March, 2006.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///MR IBD TIPP
    Consumer

    Economic optimism rebounds, but it still remains depressed

    The IBD/TIPP Optimism Index increased by 3 points to 41.4 versus 38.4 in October. It’s well below its 12-month average of 45.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads/// year bond yield LT
    Consumer

    What to watch for in real estate next week

    The week ahead Earnings season is pretty much over. Only five companies will report next week; nobody related to real estate is reporting. Next week is not all that heavy data-wise, although we will get the S&P Case-Schiller Home Price Index and Pending Home Sales. The Case-Schiller data will be from March, which should begin […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Government Spending
    Consumer

    Must-know: Can the government do something for the economy?

    There has been a tug-of-war between the left-wing prescription of using the government to cushion the blows of a difficult economy and the right’s version of “let the markets clear.”

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///MR KBH
    Consumer

    KB Home swings to a profit and its turnaround stays on pace

    Unlike some of the other builders, KB is a turnaround story. The company believes its strategic focus on first-time and move-up homebuyers is finally beginning to pay off.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Fannie Mae Attitudes about housing expected px appreciation
    Consumer

    Consumers are tempering their home price appreciation expectations

    The 2.3% home price expectation is much lower than the 6%–7% forecast we’re seeing out of the National Association of Realtors and the mid single-digit forecast we’re seeing from most Wall Street professionals.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///DHI Gross Margins
    Earnings Report

    D.R. Horton’s Gross Margins Fall Slightly

    Like most other builders, D.R. Horton has been reporting lower gross margins due to sticker shock. Home prices have been increasing, but wage growth has been stagnant.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Construction Spending
    Consumer

    Construction Spending Fell in June

    In June 2016, private construction fell 0.6%, and public construction fell 0.6% month-over-month.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///GDP
    Consumer

    GDP Will Be the Highlight This Week

    We’re nearing the end of August—many investment professionals will be watching markets from the beach. The second revision to Q2 GDP will be out on Friday.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Mortgage Rates
    Consumer

    Must-know: Why mortgage rates rose slightly as bonds sold off

    Mortgage rates are the lifeblood of the housing market, which is why the Fed began conducting quantitative easing (or QE) in the first place. Lower rates allow homeowners to refinance.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Business Inventories
    Consumer

    Business inventories rise slower than sales, good for activity

    This series focuses on industrial and manufacturing releases that will affect the real estate sector. Since homebuilders are highly cyclical, housing analysts watch the manufacturing data closely.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • Consumer

    Seeking fresh supply: Why pending home sales were flat in January

    The indicator increased marginally, by 0.1% to 95 in January from an upwardly revised 94.9 in December, and came in 9% below January 2013’s reading.

    By Phalguni Soni
  • uploads///Foreclosure Completions
    Real Estate

    Foreclosure Completions Drop In October

    Since foreclosures represent a process that may or may not wind up with the bank owning the home, foreclosure completions are a better indicator of foreclosure activity than foreclosure starts.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Hourly Earnings
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Wage Growth Could Be Picking Up

    Average hourly earnings rose by 9 cents on a month-over-month basis in October and were up 2.4% YoY (year-over-year) to $25.20. However, wage growth is still barely outpacing inflation.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Consumer Price Index
    Consumer

    Investor outlook: Consumer price inflation meets the Fed’s target

    This report will probably hold the hawks on the Fed at bay and allow them to continue to maintain ultra-low interest rates. The Fed wants to see annual inflation of about 2%.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Chart  Margin
    Company & Industry Overviews

    Why Are Lennar’s Higher Margins Unsustainable?

    Buyers are reluctant to pay higher prices, and builders have to offer incentives, which reduces margins. Lennar’s higher margins will not be sustainable.

    By Peter Barnes
  • uploads///MR PPI
    Consumer

    Why the Producer Price Index increasing 0.8% in June will hurt homebuilders

    The Producer Price Index measures inflation at the wholesale level Analysts have typically taken inflation at the wholesale level to predict inflation at the consumer level. In a normal business environment, producers pass these increased costs to consumers, which would decrease disposable income if wages didn’t rise accordingly. Investors consider a little inflation a good thing. […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Chart  EBITDA Margin
    Company & Industry Overviews

    What Does D.R. Horton’s EBITDA Margin Say?

    D.R. Horton’s EBITDA margin was at 10.1% as on March 2015, much better compared to 2.3% for fiscal 2011.

    By Peter Barnes
  • uploads///Foreclosure Starts
    Consumer

    Why foreclosure starts ticked up in October but are still falling

    Foreclosure starts are closely watched by investors, realtors, and homebuilders alike because they forecast future housing supply.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Hourly Earnings
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Wages Dipped Slightly in December: Here’s Why

    Average hourly earnings fell by 1 cent on a month-over-month basis in December 2015 and were up 2.5% year-over-year to $25.24. Average weekly hours were flat at 34.5.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///DHI Gross Margins
    Earnings Report

    D.R. Horton Maintained Its Gross Margins

    D.R. Horton’s gross margins held steady at 19.9% in the fourth quarter of 2015. However, they fell on a YoY (year-over-year) basis from 20.5% in the fourth quarter of 2014.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Mortgage Rates
    Consumer

    Mortgage Rates Are Not Buying The Rally Yet

    The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage decreased six basis points to close at 3.92%. The ten-year bond rose and yields decreased by 15 basis points.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Leading Economic Indicators
    Consumer

    Index of Leading Economic Indicators takes a breather in August

    The Index of Leading Economic Indicators (or LEI) is a business cycle indicator. It’s based on 11 different economic statistics—average workweek, initial jobless claims, new orders, building permits, unfilled durable goods, commodity prices, consumer expectations, stock prices, and money supply.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Consumer Price Index
    Consumer

    Must-know: Inflation remains well-contained at the consumer level

    Inflation is a double-edged sword. The Fed (or Federal Reserve) likes to see a little inflation because it’s associated with rising wages. But deflation causes a lot of economic problems, especially for the Fed.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Bloomberg Consumer Comfort
    Consumer

    Bloomberg consumer comfort index hits a post-recession high, good for homebuilders

    The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index rose to -28.3 for the week ending June 23 The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index is a weekly sentiment index that covers three critical variables: respondents’ perception of the state of the economy, their evaluation of their personal finances, and whether it’s a good time to purchase goods and services. The […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Housing Starts LT
    Consumer

    How D.R. Horton plans to address the first-time homebuyer

    D.R. Horton CEO Donald Tomnitz said that the first-time homebuyer will drive the next leg in the sector and has been underserved in this recovery.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Housing starts
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    A Closer Look at the August 15 Drop in Housing Starts

    Housing starts fell from a downward-revised ~1.16 million to ~1.13 million in August 2015. This was below Wall Street estimates of just over 1.16 million.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Home Equity
    Consumer

    Aggregate home equity increases 9% in Q113

    Corelogic puts out a quarterly report on aggregate home equity in the U.S. Corelogic’s Home Equity Report analyzes changes in home equity from a number of different perspectives. Home equity can be used to predict default rates, and we saw a large number of strategic defaults early in the housing bust as professional investors realized […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///JOLT Job Openings
    Consumer

    The FOMC Leaves The Big Question About Jobs Unanswered

    There was no discussion of the “speed limit” issue in the July FOMC minutes. This is generally a “cyclical versus structural unemployment” issue.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///NAHB Housing Market Index
    Consumer

    Why homebuilder sentiment hits post-bubble highs, helping stocks

    Homebuilders are in a better position than the smallest construction firms in that they have easy access to credit.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Foreclosure Completions
    Consumer

    August foreclosure completions tick up but homebuilders unaffected

    Increases in foreclosure activity correlate with lower home prices because distressed properties tend to trade at a discount to non-distressed properties.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///KB Home EPS
    Earnings Report

    What Happened to KB Home’s Earnings in 2Q16?

    KB Home’s net income came in at $15.6 million on a GAAP (generally accepted accounting principles) basis, as compared to $9.6 million in 2Q15.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Consumer Price Inflation rates
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Key for Investors: Understanding Inflation and Its Implications

    Inflation represents a rise in the general price level in a country or region. The higher the inflation, the lower the quantum of a particular good that can be purchased.

    By David Ashworth
  • uploads///MBA Purchase Index
    Financials

    Seasonality Trumps The Bond Market Rally

    The MBA Purchase Index decreased 6.9% in the week ended December 12, 2014, despite a strong bond market rally.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Homeownership Rate
    Consumer

    Why the homeownership rate has declined to 65% in this recession

    The homeownership rate rose precipitously during the housing bubble. This was due to several reasons.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Household formation vs Housing Starts
    Consumer

    Must-know: Will the government help the first-time homebuyer?

    Between low prices and low borrowing rates, the first-time homebuyer should have been set. However, lenders greatly tightened credit standards and many first-time homebuyers found themselves shut out of the mortgage market.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///CFNAI
    Consumer

    The Chicago Fed National Activity Index shows economic expansion

    The Chicago Fed National Activity Index measures whether the economy is expanding on, above, or below its historical trend.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Construction Spending
    Consumer

    Construction spending ticks up in April

    Construction spending is a major driver of job growth in the U.S. economy The Construction Put in Place Survey is released monthly by the Census Bureau that measures the total dollar value of construction work done in the U.S. It covers both the public and private sector and includes new structures as well as improvements […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///MR household formation
    Consumer

    Why household formation drives homebuilder demand (Part 1)

    Low household formation numbers over the past five years will drive homebuilder demand going forward Since the financial crisis began, demand for new construction has fallen, as household formation numbers have dropped. The low household formation numbers have been driven by a poor economy—not by demographics. This represents pent-up demand that must be satisfied in […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Housing starts
    Consumer

    Housing starts rebound, driven by multi-family construction

    Housing starts are a critical predictor of future homebuilder sales Housing starts are released jointly by the Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. Analysts use the information to anticipate future production for homebuilders, future demand for raw materials, and labor costs. This data will even affect the forecasts for home-related retailers, […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Construction Public GDP
    Company & Industry Overviews

    Analyzing the New Deal: Do We Need a New One?

    Historically, the use of public construction dollars has been the big lever that the government uses to stimulate the economy. This dates back to the New Deal.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Industrial Production
    Consumer

    A decline in manufacturing causes industrial production to fall

    Up until January, industrial production and manufacturing production had been accelerating, so it is premature to draw any major conclusions from one disappointing report.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Empire State Manufacturing Survey
    Consumer

    Empire State Manufacturing Index improves, outlook remains bright

    Overall, the report shows the economy is still expanding moderately, and firms are generally optimistic about the future.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///FHFA House Price Index
    Consumer

    Must-know: Why home-price appreciation is leveling off

    In July, home prices increased 0.1% month-over-month. They’re up 4.4% year-over-year (or YoY). Prices are now within 6.5% of their April 2007 peak. They correspond to the levels in July 2005. Real estate values drive consumer confidence and spending. They have an enormous impact on the economy.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///tom rumble lvzopTxjOU unsplash
    Consumer

    Federal Reserve forecasts 2.55% GDP growth in 2013

    The Federal Reserve includes formal economic forecasts like GDP in the minutes from its Federal Open Market Committee (or FOMC) meetings.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///construction spending percent
    Consumer

    Why construction spending is so important to the economy

    Historically, construction spending has led economies out of a recession.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • Consumer

    Why these 5 states saw the highest home price appreciation

    Home prices rebounded 0.8% in December after easing 0.1% the month before. Excluding some monthly volatility, home prices have been in an uptrend.

    By Sandra Nathanson
  • uploads///MR NAHB
    Consumer

    Homebuilders note momentum pause as buyers digest rate increases

    The National Association of Homebuilders (NAHB) Sentiment Index came in at 58—the highest reading since July 2005, and only the third time since the bust that more homebuilders considered conditions to be more “good” than “poor.”

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///MR CPI
    Consumer

    Why the subdued Consumer Price Index gives the Fed an excuse

    This report will probably hold the hawks on the Fed at bay and allow them to continue to maintain ultra-low interest rates. That said, the bond market has been pricing in a tapering of quantitative easing.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///MBA Purchase Index
    Consumer

    Why the MBA Purchase Index fell but housing remains affordable

    The MBA Purchase Index fell by 0.4% last week, which is somewhat surprising given that rates fell and even refinances rose.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///nfpvadp
    Consumer

    Can Investors Keep Forecasting the Final Non-Farm Payroll Correctly?

    ADP’s June non-farm payroll numbers indicated an increase of 172,000 jobs in the private sector. ADP’s non-farm payrolls have been mostly accurate.

    By David Meyer
  • uploads///MBA Purchase Index
    Consumer

    Purchase applications fall as we enter the seasonally slow period

    The MBA Purchase Index decreased 2.6% last week in response to strong bond market sell-off and a holiday-shortened week. We’re entering the seasonally slow period for the real estate sector, which pretty much lasts as long as football season.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///MR Michigan
    Consumer

    Consumer confidence dipped slightly in July, but opportunity for homebuilders

    The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index is a leading indicator for the U.S. economy The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index is an important indicator of the consumer’s perception of the U.S. economy. Similar to other consumer confidence measures, it asks consumers about their views on the current economic conditions and their […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Manufacturing Production
    Consumer

    Manufacturing production drops due to bad winter weather

    Manufacturing output fell 0.8% after increasing 0.3% in December. The output for utilities rose 4.1% in January on cold weather in the Northeast.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///New home sales
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    New Home Sales Fell 6.80% in June: ITB Fell 2.20%

    Existing home sales in the US recorded a 482,000 annualized figure in June—compared to 517,000 recorded in May. It failed to meet census expectations of 550,000 units.

    By Surbhi Jain
  • uploads/// year bond yield LT
    Consumer

    What to watch for in real estate, stormy week ahead

    After a stormy week, bonds have a lot of data to navigate Last Friday’s jobs report punctuated what should have been a relatively dull week with a holiday in the middle. The 10 year bond sold off on the number, increasing the yield from 2.5% to 2.74%. We will see Monday if that move was overdone. […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Personal Consumption Expenditure Core Rate Chg
    Consumer

    Inflation continues to come in below the Fed’s target: What does this mean? A double-edged sword?

    Inflation is a double-edged sword. The Fed (or Federal Reserve) likes to see a little inflation because it’s associated with rising wages. But deflation causes a lot of economic problems, especially for the Fed.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Housing Starts LT
    Consumer

    Must-know: Current housing starts from a historical perspective

    Following the collapse, we saw starts average around 687,000 units per year, with a low of under half a million.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Chart  ETF
    Company & Industry Overviews

    Investing in Lennar through Homebuilder ETFs

    Lennar sees allocation in major sector-specific homebuilder ETFs such as the SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB). XHB has a 3.36% stake in Lennar.

    By Peter Barnes
  • uploads///Housing Starts LT
    Consumer

    Could margins for homebuilders like Toll Brothers contract?

    Manufacturing activity is a good sign for job growth, which has been the Achilles’ heel of this recovery. Although manufacturing isn’t the driver of the economy that it used to be, it still matters.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Foreclosure Completions
    Consumer

    Foreclosure completions drop again in April

    Foreclosure starts are a leading indicator of future housing supply and pricing Foreclosure activity is closely watched by investors, realtors and home builders alike because they provide a forecast of future housing supply. Foreclosure timelines can vary widely by state, depending on whether a foreclosure needs to be approved by a judge. The large foreclosure […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Housing starts
    Consumer

    Week in preview: Why the Fed will be in the spotlight

    Next week is all about the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting The FOMC meets on Tuesday and Wednesday, and we should have the announcement on Wednesday afternoon around 2:00 p.m. Taper? By how Much? Which securities? The Fed will also release its forecast of economic activity. The Fed has been consistently over-optimistic on economic […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///MR consumer credit
    Consumer

    Consumer credit increases in August, good for homebuilder stocks

    Consumer credit increased $13.6 billion (or 5.4% annualized) in August, as non-revolving credit increased 8.0% and revolving credit fell 1.2%.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///MR Richmond Fed
    Consumer

    Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey dives in July, homebuilders unaffected

    The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey looks at business conditions in the Fed’s fifth district, which covers Washington, DC, Baltimore, Richmond, and Charlotte The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey is sent out to companies in the Mid-Atlantic states and covers current business conditions, shipments, new orders, backlog, and inventory. It’s similar to the other surveys put out […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads/// year bond yield LT
    Consumer

    Next week’s FOMC statement will be the only market-moving data

    After a heavy week, bonds have an easier schedule After last week’s flood of data, bonds will get a bit of a break. The minutes from the FOMC meeting have the potential to be market-moving. Earnings-wise, the retailers dominate the news—although we’ll get a read on the luxury end of the housing market when Toll […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///MBA Purchase Index
    Consumer

    Homebuilder opportunity: Mortgage purchase applications fall, but still strong

    The MBA Purchase Index is an important index that forecasts housing activity The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) index of purchase activity measures application activity, not loans made. The Mortgage Bankers Association samples roughly 75% of all mortgage activity in the U.S., and its indices are key indicators for the real estate finance market and home […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///GDP
    Consumer

    Earnings deluge on tap: Must-know releases to follow this week

    Economically, we don’t have anything really market-moving, although the GDP number could move markets. This is the second revision to fourth quarter GDP.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads/// year bond yield historical
    Consumer

    What exactly is quantitative easing? Part 5

    Back to part 4 Mark-to-market issues The Fed does actually have a profit and loss statement and it is a line item on the Federal Budget. Since quantitative easing began, the Fed has profited from this activity as it has pushed up prices through its own buying. As it stops purchasing MBS and Treasuries, it […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///NAHB Housing Market Index
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Behind Homebuilder Sentiment So Far in May

    The NAHB Wells Fargo Housing Market Index measures homebuilder sentiment has been increasing steadily since 2009. Recently, it’s started to accelerate.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • Consumer

    Why are we seeing broad-based house price gains across the US?

    The Federal Housing Finance Agency Housing Price Index for March was released on Tuesday, May 27. This release also included quarterly data comparisons for Q1 2014.

    By Phalguni Soni
  • uploads///ISM PMI
    Consumer

    Institute of Supply Management’s Purchasing Managers Index falls in April

    The Institute of Supply Management index assesses the state of manufacturing in the United States. The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) is similar to the other regional PMI indices, however it covers the entire country. The ISM PMI looks at various business indices like new orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries, inventory, […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///GDP
    Consumer

    First quarter GDP revised downward to +2.4%

    Increases in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is a measure of economic growth Gross domestic product is what is referred to generally as “the economy.”  It is the sum of consumption, investment, and government spending. Another way to think of GDP is the output of goods and services produced by labor and property in the U.S. […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Industrial Production
    Consumer

    Industrial production rebounds in August, good for homebuilders

    Industrial production is a bellwether of economic activity Industrial production is a good top-down macroeconomic indicator that helps forecast the labor market, final demand, consumption, and inflation. While manufacturing is no longer the primary driver of the U.S. economy, it still influences the economy to a large degree—particularly for unskilled workers. U.S. manufacturing has been […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Percentage of Investments in Real Estate
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Demystifying Special-Purpose Acquisition Companies

    A special-purpose acquisition company (or SPAC) is a corporation formed by private individuals to facilitate investment through an initial public offering (or IPO).

    By Arthur Penn
  • uploads///MBA Mortgage Apps
    Consumer

    Why you should follow the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) Index

    Every week, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) puts out an index of mortgage application activity Mortgage applications are relevant to a number of industries—from banks to non-banks, to mortgage REITs to homebuilders. This series will break down the different indices and help you learn what insight you can glean from them. If you’re a bank, […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Fed funds target
    Consumer

    A bond market sell-off greets Yellen’s first FOMC announcement

    Yesterday, the Federal Reserve ended its March FOMC meeting and decided to continue to reduce asset purchases.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Mortgage Rates
    Real Estate

    Mortgage rates fall despite a bond market sell-off

    Over the past several months, mortgage rates and the ten-year bond yield stopped correlating. Last week, this trend broke as the two variables lined up once again.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Senior LO Survey
    Consumer

    Why credit is still easing but subprime is gone from the banks

    Credit eased during the quarter, but it was primarily associated with commercial real estate and commercial or industrial lending.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Pending Home Sales
    Consumer

    A lack of first-time buyers: Pending home sales fall again

    The return of the first-time homebuyer is the missing link to a more normal housing market. Household formation numbers have been depressed since the Great Recession began.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Housing Starts
    Consumer

    Housing starts dampened by wet weather in the Midwest

    Housing starts are a critical predictor of future home builder sales Housing starts are released jointly by the Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. Analysts use the information to anticipate future production for home builders, future demand for raw materials, and labor costs. This data will even affect the forecasts for […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Philly Fed
    Consumer

    Philly Fed Index drops after huge months, but outlook optimistic

    The Philadelphia Fed Survey is an important survey about economic expectations in the Mid-Atlantic region The diffusion index is based on the number of businesses reporting increased activity less the number of businesses reporting decreased activity. It also includes an index of expectations six months out. The survey drills down into orders and shipments, employment, […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Pending Home Sales
    Consumer

    Why did pending home sales rebound after a slow start to 2014?

    Given that the first-time homebuyer is still in a difficult financial situation with a weak job market and high student loan debt, homebuilders are focusing more on the move-up buyer.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Chart  ETF
    Company & Industry Overviews

    How to Invest in D.R. Horton through ETFs

    D.R. Horton sees allocation in major homebuilding sector-specific ETFs like the iShares Dow Jones US Home Construction Index Fund (ITB).

    By Peter Barnes
  • uploads///NAHB Housing Market Index
    Consumer

    Homebuilder sentiment dips as traffic slows and shutdown persists

    Builders noted the shutdown and the impending debt ceiling have depressed consumer confidence, and this is flowing through to traffic.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///mortgage rate long term
    Consumer

    Bernanke’s comments send mortgage rates screaming higher

    The recent bond market sell-off bumps up mortgage rates again Mortgage rates are the lifeblood of the housing market, which is why Bernanke and the Fed began conducting quantitative easing (or QE) in the first place. Lower rates allow homeowners to refinance, which increases their disposable income and helps stimulate economic growth. Lower rates enable first-time home […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Fed Assets
    Consumer

    Must-know: The Fed reduces asset purchases by another $10 billion

    Yesterday, the Federal Reserve ended its January Federal Open Market Committee meeting and decided to continue to reduce asset purchases. This was Ben Bernanke’s final FOMC meeting.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///IBD TIPP Optimism Index
    Consumer

    IBD / TIPP economic optimism index falls in July, but don’t blame interest rates

    The Investor’s Business Daily/TechnoMetrica Optimism Index is considered to be a preview of the upcoming consumer confidence indices The Investor’s Business Daily/TechnoMetrica Optimism Index has a good track record of predicting how the two major consumer confidence indices – the Conference Board and the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence indices – will look when they are released later in […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Richmond Fed
    Consumer

    Mid-Atlantic manufacturing is picking up, helping homebuilders

    The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey looks at business conditions in the Fed’s fifth district, which covers Washington, DC, Baltimore, Richmond, and Charlotte.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Lennar Revenues
    Earnings Report

    Lennar Keeps Reporting Big Increases in its Revenue

    For the first quarter of 2015, Lennar (LEN) reported $1.6 billion in revenue. This is an increase of 21% year-over-year.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Manufacturing Production
    Financials

    Manufacturing Production Increased In November

    Manufacturing output increased 1.1% in November. Durable goods’ production increased 1%. Auto-related manufacturing increased as well. Business equipment increased 1.2%.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
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