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  • uploads///Recession stock market crash
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Recession Signs, Market Crash—Time for Inverse ETFs?

    After rising on easing trade tensions on Tuesday, US stock market indexes crashed yesterday. The S&P 500 (SPY) fell 2.9%, and the Nasdaq (QQQ) fell 3.02%.

    By Mike Sonnenberg
  • uploads///part  bearish drivers
    Company & Industry Overviews

    Why US Steel Bears Could Have a Valid Point

    US steel prices have held their ground in 2017 and have built on last year’s gains. However, the bears (SDS) also have some valid points. Let’s discuss them in perspective.

    By Mohit Oberoi, CFA
  • uploads///part  bulls imports
    Earnings Report

    The U.S. Steel Bulls Only Hope?

    Analysts’ opinions remain divided over U.S. Steel (X) after its 1Q17 earnings results.

    By Mohit Oberoi, CFA
  • uploads///part  bearish
    Company & Industry Overviews

    Should Alcoa Bears Like Their Chances in 2017?

    Higher Chinese aluminum production could spoil the party that companies such as Alcoa and Century Aluminum (CENX) are currently enjoying.

    By Mohit Oberoi, CFA
  • uploads///Analyst estimates
    Company & Industry Overviews

    Why Analysts Significantly Raised Vale’s Earnings Estimates

    Wall Street analysts covering Vale are projecting sales of $27.0 billion for 2016. That implies a revenue change of 4.4% year-over-year.

    By Anuradha Garg
  • uploads///manufacturing jobs
    Company & Industry Overviews

    Why Krugman Doesn’t Understand the Focus on Trade All of a Sudden

    Trade has been a key focus with respect to the US elections lately.

    By Surbhi Jain
  • uploads///dual mandate
    Company & Industry Overviews

    Paul Krugman to the Fed: Don’t Raise Rates

    Inflation is moving up towards its target, but it still has a ways to go before it gets there. Paul Krugman believes raising rates could keep inflation from reaching that target.

    By Surbhi Jain
  • uploads///part  analysts
    Earnings Report

    3Q16 Earnings: Are Analysts Losing Patience with U.S. Steel?

    3Q16 earnings Wall Street analysts update their target prices after a company’s quarterly earnings release. After U.S. Steel Corporation’s (X) 3Q16 earnings release, several leading brokerages slashed the company’s target price. Target price cut For instance, Credit Suisse, which was among the bullish brokerages on U.S. Steel, cut the company’s target price from $29 to […]

    By Mohit Oberoi, CFA
  • uploads///s analogy
    Financials

    How Could The Future Be Different? Ray Dalio Weighs In

    Ray Dalio sees similarities between now and the late 1930s The last time central bankers faced something similar to the present situation was in the late 1930s. Ray Dalio sees similarities between the current US economic environment and the one in 1937. Asset prices plummeted in 1937, which subsequently dragged down earnings and led to […]

    By Surbhi Jain
  • uploads/// forces
    Financials

    The ‘Three Big Forces’ That Drive All Economies

    The “three big forces” Ray Dalio believes that “three big forces” drive all economies. These are: productivity growth the short-term debt cycle the long-term debt cycle An economy has to go through upturns and downturns Central bankers need to study the determinants of productivity for their economy. The determinants could include the costs of education, […]

    By Surbhi Jain
  • uploads///discounting factor
    Financials

    Ray Dalio: ‘Risks Are Asymmetric on the Downside’

    “Risks are asymmetric on the downside” On the economy, Ray Dalio stated that “the risks are asymmetric on the downside, because asset prices are comparatively high at the same time there’s not an ability to ease.” Courtesy of the current global monetary policy’s low interest rates, asset prices are artificially inflated—so much so that they’ve […]

    By Surbhi Jain
  • uploads///business cycle
    Financials

    We’re in ‘an Environment of Abnormally Slow Growth,’ Says Dalio

    This isn’t a normal business cycle Billionaire hedge fund manager Seth Klarman said, “the stock market is the story of cycles and of the human behavior that is responsible for overreactions in both directions.” Ray Dalio believes that this isn’t a normal business cycle. In our April 2015 series Business Cycle Investing: What Should You Look […]

    By Surbhi Jain
  • uploads///VALE_Estimates
    Miscellaneous

    Vale’s Estimates Are Driven by These Two Factors

    Factors impacting analyst estimates There are two major factors driving the estimates for Vale (VALE). Going forward, its volumes will get a significant boost from iron ore volumes as its S11D project ramps up. This will also lower its overall iron ore unit costs. This is a positive for the company. However, most of the […]

    By Anuradha Garg
  • uploads///part  fcx
    Company & Industry Overviews

    Freeport-McMoRan Sees Analysts Cut Their Price Targets

    Of the 20 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg, only four rate Freeport-McMoRan’s (FCX) stock a “buy,” while two analysts rated it a “sell.” An overwhelming majority of analysts rate FCX as a “hold.”

    By Mohit Oberoi, CFA
  • uploads///part  resistance
    Basic Materials

    Tech Matters: Freeport Finds Solace near Key Support Level

    Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) has been in a falling price channel. Due to the recent negative price action, the stock is trading below its 100-day moving average.

    By Mohit Oberoi, CFA
  • uploads///part  short interest
    Basic Materials

    Do the Bears Sense an Opportunity in Alcoa’s Split?

    According to the latest update, Alcoa’s (AA) short interest ratio stood at 8.5 on August 31. The company’s short interest ratio was 9.5 on August 15.

    By Mohit Oberoi, CFA
  • uploads///part  short interest
    Basic Materials

    How Do Freeport-McMoRan’s Short Positions Look in 2016?

    According to the latest update on July 29, 2016, Freeport-McMoRan’s (FCX) short interest ratio stood at ~2.9.

    By Mohit Oberoi, CFA
  • uploads///part  short interest ratio
    Basic Materials

    Must Know: Why Are the Bears Attracted to Alcoa This Year?

    According to the latest update on July 29, 2016, Alcoa’s short interest ratio stood at ~8. This ratio has increased sharply from the previous update, when Alcoa’s short interest ratio was 4.8 on July 15.

    By Mohit Oberoi, CFA
  • uploads///part
    Miscellaneous

    Alcoa’s Short Positions: A Bearish View of the Split

    According to the latest update as of May 31, 2016, Alcoa’s short interest ratio stood at 6.33.

    By Mohit Oberoi, CFA
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