California Resources Corporation
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Will Oil Continue Its Upside After EIA Data?
Since the EIA released its inventory data on July 17, US crude oil September futures have fallen 1.2%.
Analyzing the EIA’s Oil Inventory Data and Key Spreads
Since the EIA released its inventory data last Wednesday, US crude oil August futures have risen 0.6%.
Why Morgan Stanley Has Slashed Oil’s Price Forecast
On July 2, Morgan Stanley (MS) reduced its long-term price forecast for Brent crude oil by $5 to $60 per barrel.
Which Oil-Weighted Stocks Were the Ouperformers?
Whiting Petroleum might report positive earnings this quarter compared to an adjusted net loss of $0.16 per share last quarter. On June 24, Suntrust Robinson reduced its target price on Whiting Petroleum by $5 to $35.
EIA Inventory Data Might Not Be Bullish for Oil
On June 26, the EIA is scheduled to announce last week’s US crude oil inventory data. A fall of equal to or more than ~7 million barrels could help the inventories spread contract. A Reuters poll suggests a fall of 2.9 MMbbls.
US-Iran Tension: What Does It Mean for Oil?
After Iran shot down a US drone, US crude oil August futures rose 5.7% on June 20 and settled at $57.07 per barrel. In the trailing week, US crude oil active futures rose 8.6%.
Which Oil-Weighted Stocks Are Sensitive to Oil Prices?
California Resources and Oasis Petroleum were the outperformers among oil-weighted stocks. California Resources had the second-highest correlation with US crude oil prices in the last three months.
Oil Traders: What to Expect before the EIA’s Data
On June 19, the EIA is scheduled to announce last week’s US crude oil inventory data. A fall of equal to or more than 7.1 million barrels could help the inventories spread contract. A Reuters poll suggests a fall of 2.033 million barrels.
EIA Inventory Data Seems to Bring More Trouble for Oil
In the week ending on May 31, US crude oil inventories were 6% higher than their five-year average.
US Crude Oil Heading for Highest Weekly Loss in 2019
At 6:48 AM EST on May 24, US crude oil active futures were at $58.52, which is ~6.7% below the closing level the previous week.
Will Any Fall in EIA Data Substantiate Oil’s Upside?
In the week ending May 10, US crude oil inventories were 2% above their five-year average.
Analyzing the Top Energy Gainers Last Week
In the week ending May 17, midstream stock NGL Energy Partners (NGL) rose the most among the stocks in the energy space.
Tension in the Middle East: Oil Heading for Weekly Gain
At 5:56 AM EST on May 17, US crude oil active futures were at $63.32, which is ~2.7% above the closing level the previous week.
Upstream Stocks Were the Energy Space’s Top Gainers Last Week
In the week that ended on April 5, upstream stock Denbury Resources (DNR) rose the most among the stocks in the energy space.
Upstream Stocks Outperformed the Energy Space
In the week ending March 22, upstream stock Denbury Resources (DNR) rose the most among the energy stocks under review in this series.
Analyzing Energy Underperformers Last Week
In the week ending March 1, oilfield services stock Weatherford International fell the most among the energy stocks under review in this series.
Futures Spread: Less Bearish Sentiments for Oil Prices
On February 19, US crude oil April 2019 futures closed ~$1.9 below the April 2020 futures.
EIA Data Might Be Neutral for Oil Prices
On February 21, the EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) is scheduled to announce last week’s US crude oil inventory data.
Will US Crude Oil Prices Surpass $54?
On January 28, US crude oil hit an intraday high of $53.64. Over the last six trading sessions, US crude oil prices have struggled to surpass the $54 level.
Did Oil-Tracking ETFs Underperform Oil Last Week?
USO holds active US crude oil futures, while USL holds US crude oil futures deliverable for each of the next 12 months.
Futures Spread: Less Bearish Sentiments for Oil?
On January 7, US crude oil February 2019 futures closed ~$3.1 below the February 2020 futures.
Oil ETFs Rose More than Oil Last Week
Between December 28 and January 4, the United States Oil ETF (USO), United States 12-Month Oil ETF (USL), and ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil ETF (UCO) rose 6.8%, 7.4%, and 14%, respectively.
Why Certain Oil-Weighted Stocks Outperformed Last Quarter
In the fourth quarter, our list of oil-weighted stocks fell 44.2%—compared to the 39.7% fall in US crude oil February futures.
Oil Wasn’t the Only Catalyst for Oil-Weighted Stocks
The high correlation indicates a stronger positive relationship between oil-weighted stocks and US crude oil prices.
Oil’s Futures Spread: An Interesting Divergence
On December 31, US crude oil February 2019 futures closed ~$3.2 below the February 2020 futures.
Oil Futures Spread: Why the Divergence Is Interesting
On November 19, US crude oil January 2019 futures closed ~$0.7 below the January 2020 futures.
Rising Inventories Spread Might Drag Oil Prices
In the week ending on November 2, US crude oil inventories were 3% above their five-year average.
Which Oil-Tracking ETFs Outperformed US Crude Oil’s Fall?
On October 26–November 2, the United States Oil ETF (USO) and the United States 12-Month Oil ETF (USL) fell 7.1% and 6.4%, respectively.
Futures Spread Nearing Discount: US Crude Sentiment Might Reverse
On October 22, US crude oil December 2018 futures closed just ~$0.6 above the December 2019 futures.
Oil ETFs Outperformed Oil’s Fall Last Week
On October 5–12, the United States Oil ETF (USO) and the United States 12-Month Oil ETF (USL) both fell 3.6%.
Will US Crude Oil Erase Last Week’s Losses?
On October 5–12, US crude oil November futures fell 4% and closed at $71.34 per barrel on October 12.
What Goldman Sachs Thinks about Oil
Between December 28 and January 4, US crude oil February futures rose 5.8% and closed at $47.96.
Weakest Upstream Stocks in the Week Ending October 5
Ring Energy (REI) was the weakest upstream stock in the week ending October 5. Ring Energy fell 17.4% last week.
Futures Spread Indicates Bullishness for Oil Prices
Yesterday, US crude oil November 2018 futures closed ~$3.48 above November 2019 futures, and between September 17 and yesterday, US crude oil November futures rose 5%.
Why Inventory Data Might Boost Oil Prices
In the week ended August 31, 2018, US crude oil inventories were almost on par with their five-year average.
How Oil ETFs Performed amid Oil’s Fall Last Week
Between August 31 and September 7, the United States Oil ETF (USO) fell 2.9%, and the United States 12-Month Oil ETF (USL) fell 2.4%.
Here’s Why Upstream Underperformed the Energy Space
Between August 31 and September 7, upstream stock Southwestern Energy Company (SWN) fell the most on our list of energy stocks.
Will the Fall in Oil Prices Continue This Week?
Between August 31 and September 7, US crude oil October futures fell 2.9% and closed at $67.75 per barrel on September 7.
These Stocks Were the Weakest Upstream Performers Last Week
PVAC fell 16.3% last week amid weakness in crude oil and natural gas prices.
Oil-Weighted Upstream Stocks: Outlier in the Energy Space
On August 24–31, upstream stock California Resources (CRC) saw the highest gain on our list of energy stocks.
Can California Resources Continue to Rise?
California Resources (CRC) continues to trade below its short-term (50-day) moving average despite its recent rally.
Top E&P Gainers for the Week That Ended on August 24
California Resources (CRC) was the top E&P (exploration and production) gainer in the week that ended on August 24, with a week-over-week rise of 22.2%.
Is $70 Possible for US Crude Oil Next Week?
On August 23, 2018, US crude oil’s implied volatility was 22%, ~6% below its 15-day average.
Weakest E&P Stocks for the Week Ending August 17
Alta Mesa Resources (AMR), which is primarily focused in the STACK region, was the weakest E&P company in the week ending August 17.
What’s the Forecast for Southwestern Energy Stock?
As of July 25, Southwestern Energy (SWN) had an implied volatility of ~50.0%, which is lower when compared with its implied volatility of ~50.9% at the end of the second quarter of 2018.
A Look at CNX Resources’ Stock Price Forecast
As of July 26, 2018, CNX Resources (CNX) had an implied volatility of ~37.2%, which is lower when compared with its implied volatility of ~39.1% at the end of Q2 2018.
Where EOG Stock Could Settle prior to Its Q2 2018 Results
On July 24, EOG Resources had an implied volatility of ~26.4%, lower than its implied volatility of ~27.5% at the end of the second quarter.
Analyzing EOG Resources’ Q2 2018 Revenue Expectations
For the second quarter, Wall Street analysts expect EOG Resources (EOG) to report revenue of ~$3.91 billion.
What Analysts Recommend for CRC, Pre-Q2 Earnings Release
Of the seven analysts covering California Resources (CRC) on July 23, ~14% recommended “strong buy,” ~14% recommended “buy,” and ~72% recommended “hold.”
Could California Resources Report Lower Losses in Q2 2018?
California Resources (CRC) is expected to report its Q2 2018 results on August 2, after the market closes.
Why a Change in Inventory Could Make Oil Bulls Happy
According to the EIA’s report on July 18, US crude oil inventories rose by ~5.8 MMbbls to ~411.1 MMbbls in the week that ended on July 13.
WTI Oil’s Struggle: Which Oil-Weighted Stocks Should You Watch?
On July 18, US crude oil September futures rose 0.9% and closed at $67.75 per barrel.
Is the Oil Market Expecting Rising Supply?
On July 16, US crude oil August 2018 futures closed ~$6.1 above the August 2019 futures contract.
Calm Down! Oil Prices Could Stay Range Bound
On July 6–13, US crude oil August futures fell 3.8%. However, US crude oil prices gained 1% and closed at $71.01 per barrel on July 13.
US Could Be the World’s Largest Crude Oil Producer by 2020
The EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) estimates that the US crude oil output was steady at 10,900,000 bpd on June 29–July 6.
Forecasting ConocoPhillips’s Stock Price Up until July 6
Due to its stock price rising ~2.7% last week, ConocoPhillips (COP) implied volatility fell from ~26.6% to ~26.4%, marginally lower than its implied volatility of ~26.5% on March 30.
What’s the Oil Futures Market Saying?
On July 2, US crude oil August futures closed ~$10 above the August 2019 futures contract. On June 25, the futures spread was at a premium of $5.4.
Implied Volatility Suggests Oil Could Reach This Price Next Week
On June 28, US crude oil’s implied volatility was 24.3%, 0.4% below its 15-day moving average.
Did Oil ETFs Rise Faster Than US Crude Oil Last Week?
Last week, Denbury Resources (DNR) and California Resources (CRC) rose 23.6% and 21.8%, respectively, the most on our list of oil-weighted stocks.
Top Energy Gainers Last Week
Between June 15 and June 22, upstream stock Denbury Resources (DNR) was the top gainer on our list of energy stocks.
Where ConocoPhillips’s Stock Could Settle by June 29
As of June 22, ConocoPhillips (COP) had an implied volatility of ~26.6%, which is marginally higher than its implied volatility of ~26.5% on March 30.
Energy XXI Gulf Coast Leads Upstream Gainers from June 18–20
From June 18–20, Energy XXI Gulf Coast (EGC) rose from last week’s close of $7.49 to $8.97, an increase of 20%.
Top Energy Losses Last Week
On June 8–15, Whiting Petroleum (WLL) and California Resources (CRC) fell the most on our list of energy stocks.
Upstream Losses: HPR, CRC, XOG, SRCI, and DNR
As of June 13, HighPoint Resources (HPR) had fallen ~5.7% this week, to $6.28 from $6.66, pushing HPR below its 50-day moving average.
Are Oil-Weighted Stocks Outperforming WTI Crude Oil Prices?
On May 30–June 6, our list of oil-weighted stocks fell 3.8%. US crude oil July futures fell 5.1% during this period.
Will Libya’s Crude Oil Production Decline in May?
Libya plans to increase its crude oil production in 2018 despite ongoing production cuts mandated by OPEC.
Southwestern Energy’s Trading Range Forecast for the Next 7 Days
As of May 25, Southwestern Energy (SWN) had an implied volatility of 54.2%, which is lower than 62.2% at the end of Q1 2018.
What Are Wall Street’s Targets for WTI, CRC, DNR, WLL, and OAS?
To conclude our overview of the biggest movers in the upstream and oilfield services sector, we’ll discuss Wall Street analysts’ recommendations for the companies with the strongest gains in 2018.
Are Hedge Funds Buying WTI, CRC, DNR, WLL, and OAS?
In Q1 2018, 12 hedge funds bought W&T Offshore (WTI) stock, and 23 hedge funds sold WTI stock.
A Fall in Oil Inventories Might Support Oil’s Rise
According to the EIA’s report released on May 16, US crude oil inventories fell by ~1.4 MMbbls to ~432.4 MMbbls in the week ending May 11.
Are You Looking at the Right Oil-Weighted Stocks?
On May 16, US crude oil June futures rose 0.3% and closed at $71.49 per barrel, a more-than-three-year high.
Libya’s Crude Oil Production Is near a 5-Year High
The EIA estimates that Libya’s crude oil production increased by 20,000 bpd to 1,005,000 bpd in April—compared to the previous month.
Global Oil Supply after the US Exits the Iran Nuclear Deal
On May 10, the United States Oil ETF (USO) rose 0.3%. On May 3–10, US crude oil June futures rose 4.3%.
Change in Inventory Levels Could Support Oil Prices
In the week ending April 27, US crude oil inventories rose by ~6.2 MMbbls to ~436 MMbbls. The market expected a rise of 1 MMbbls in the EIA’s data on May 2.
Are Oil ETFs Outperforming US Crude Oil?
Last week, California Resources rose 28.8%—the largest gainer. Murphy Oil fell 2.8%—the biggest loss on our list of oil-weighted stocks.
Oil or Equity: Which Could Influence Oil-Weighted Stocks More?
On May 2, US crude oil June futures rose 1% and closed at $67.93 per barrel, which limited US crude oil June futures’ trailing week decline to 0.2%.
What Are the Odds of CRC Beating Its 1Q18 Earnings Estimates?
In the last four quarters, California Resources beat its consensus EPS (earnings per share) estimates in 1Q17, 3Q17, and 4Q17.
Will California Resources Report Positive Free Cash Flow in 1Q18?
Wall Street analysts expect California Resources (CRC) to report a year-over-year fall of ~32% in its operating cash flow.
Analyzing California Resources’ 1Q18 Revenue Expectations
For 1Q18, analysts expect California Resources (CRC) to report revenue of ~$532 million.
US Crude Oil Is at a 3-Year High
On April 18, 2018, US crude oil June futures rose 2.9% and closed at $68.47 per barrel—the highest closing level since December 2014.
What Short Interest in Southwestern Energy Stock Indicates
As of March 29, 2018, Southwestern Energy’s (SWN) total shares shorted (or short interest) stood at ~50.9 million, whereas its average daily volume is ~20.8 million.
Are Oil-Weighted Stocks Rising Faster than Oil?
Between February 11, 2016, and April 11, 2018, US crude oil active futures rose 154.9% from their 12-year low.
Why Did Oil Prices Rise on April 9?
On April 9, 2018, US crude oil May futures rebounded 2.2% and closed at $63.42 per barrel.
Oil-Weighted Stocks Could Be Impacted by Oil’s Fall
On April 4, 2018, US crude oil May futures fell 0.2% and closed at $63.37 per barrel. On March 28–April 4, 2018, US crude oil May futures fell 1.6%.
What Dented Oil Prices?
On April 2, 2018, US crude oil active futures were 0.2%, 0.1%, 3.7%, and 15.3% above their 20, 50, 100, and 200-day moving averages.
US Crude Oil Loses Momentum, Oil-Weighted Stocks Might Fall
On March 28, US crude oil May futures declined 1.3% and closed at $64.38 per barrel. US crude oil futures could have fallen due to profit-booking.
Wall Street’s Targets for the Worst-Performing Upstream Stocks
We’ll now look at Wall Street’s recommendations for the worst performers in 2018 from the US oil and gas production, or upstream, sector.
These Oil-Weighted Stocks Diverged from Oil’s Decline
Between February 28 and March 7, our collection of oil-weighted stocks gained 3.1%, compared to a 0.8% decline in US crude oil April futures.
These Stocks Are the Upstream Losers So Far This Week
In the week starting March 5, 2018, California Resources (CRC) fell from $14.98 to $14.65, a decrease of ~6.1%.
Which Energy Stocks Fell More than the Oil Market Last Week?
On February 23–March 2, 2018, upstream stock California Resources (CRC) was the largest loser on our list of energy stocks.
California Resources: Wall Street Ratings after Its 4Q17 Earnings
The median target price on CRC stock is $25.50, which is ~24.0% higher than its February 26, 2018, closing price of $20.11.
California Resources’ 1-Month Stock Forecast
On February 26, 2018, California Resources’ (CRC) implied volatility was ~83.1%, higher than its implied volatility of ~69.9% on December 29, 2017.
Short Sellers and ConocoPhillips’s Rally since August 2017
As of January 12, 2018, ConocoPhillips’s (COP) total shares shorted (or short interest) were ~24.6 million.
Upstream Losers: PE, GPOR, CRC, SWN, and SN
In the week starting January 29, 2018, Parsley Energy (PE) decreased from $28.73 to $24.07—a significant decrease of ~16.2%.
Do Short Sellers Believe the Rally in Encana Stock?
From the perspective of shares outstanding, the current short interest in Encana stock as a percentage of shares outstanding is at ~1.4%.
Where Encana Stock Could Settle in the Next 7 Days
As of January 26, 2018, Encana (ECA) had an implied volatility of ~36.4%, which is higher than its implied volatility of ~35% at the end of 4Q17.
Could Falling Short Interest in COP’s Stock Mean Its Rally Will Continue?
As of November 30, 2017, ConocoPhillips’s (COP) total shares shorted (or short interest) stood at ~23.9 million, whereas its average daily volume was ~6.5 million.
Oil Inventory Data: Which Oil-Weighted Stocks Could React?
On December 27, 2017, US crude oil (USO) (DBO) February futures fell 0.6% and settled at $59.64 per barrel. That was $0.33 below their highest closing price in 2017.
Where Encana’s Stock Could Settle in the Next 7 Days
As of December 21, 2017, Encana (ECA) had an implied volatility of ~33.7%, which is lower than its implied volatility of ~39.6% at the end of 3Q17.
Are Oil-Weighted Stocks Underperforming Oil?
On December 6–13, 2017, our list of oil-weighted stocks fell 1.6%, while US crude oil prices rose 1.1%. US crude oil outperformed these oil-weighted stocks.