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Delek US Holdings: Stock Forecast Range

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Jun. 26 2019, Published 12:26 p.m. ET

Delek’s stock forecast

We’ll discuss Delek US Holdings’ (DK) implied volatility in order to forecast its stock price range until June 28.

The implied volatility in Delek has risen by 0.4 percentage points since April 1 to 36.9%. During the same period, Delek stock has increased 9.4%.

Considering Delek’s current implied volatility and assuming a normal distribution of prices and one standard deviation with a probability of 68.2%, Delek’s stock price could close between $42.0 per share and $37.7 per share for the eight days ending June 28.

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Peers’ implied volatility

The implied volatility in HollyFrontier (HFC) and PBF Energy (PBF) has risen by 0.6 and 6.3 percentage points, respectively, since April 1. The implied volatility in Valero Energy (VLO) has increased by 1.6 percentage points during the same period. HollyFrontier, PBF Energy, and Valero Energy’s stock prices have fallen 11.4%, 17.8%, and 6.0%, respectively, since April 1. The implied volatility in these stocks and their prices have moved inversely in the second quarter. Currently, the implied volatility in HollyFrontier, PBF Energy, and Valero Energy is at 33.6%, 43.3%, and 29.6%, respectively.

Implied volatility in the market

The implied volatility in the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), which closely resemble the S&P 500 Index and the Dow Jones Industrial Average, respectively, have shown a mixed trend.

While the implied volatility in DIA has fallen by 0.1 percentage points, SPY’s implied volatility has risen by 0.5 percentage points. Currently, the implied volatility in DIA and SPY is 12.5% and 12.0%, respectively. SPY and DIA’s values have risen by 4.7% and 3.5%, respectively, in the same period.

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