Implied volatility in Phillips 66
Phillips 66’s (PSX) first-quarter earnings fell sharply, and its stock reacted negatively to the news. In this part, we’ll review how Phillips 66’s stock could trend in the next ten days. We’ll also discuss the changes in implied volatility in Phillips 66 on its earnings release day.
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Phillips 66 reported earnings on April 30, 2019. After earnings, implied volatility in Phillips 66 fell by 2.3 percentage points to the current level of 21.5%. Also, this is below the 30-day average implied volatility in PSX, which stood at 22.5%. On April 30, Phillips 66 stock price fell by 1.1%.
Phillips 66 stock forecast for the ten days ending on May 10
Considering Phillips 66’s implied volatility of 21.5% and assuming a normal distribution of prices (bell curve model) with one standard deviation (probability of 68.2%), Phillips 66 stock price could close between $97.6 and $90.9 per share in the next ten-day period ending on May 10.
Implied volatilities in peers
Contrary to Phillips 66, implied volatility in PBF Energy (PBF) rose by 0.5 percentage points over the previous day to 38.9% on April 30. Also, implied volatilities in HollyFrontier (HFC) and Delek US Holdings (DK) rose by 1.2 percentage points and 0.1 percentage points, respectively, to 36.3% and 41.0%, respectively.
If we consider these refiners’ stock prices, then Delek and HollyFrontier fell 1.1% and 1.7%, respectively, on April 30. However, PBF rose by 0.2% on the day.