In this part, we’ll discuss Phillips 66’s (PSX) stock price forecast based on its implied volatility for 25 days before its earnings. Phillips 66 is expected to post its first-quarter earnings on April 30.
Sign up for Bagels & Stox, our witty take on the top market and investment news, straight to your inbox! Whether you’re a serious investor or just want to be informed, Bagels & Stox will be your favorite email.
The implied volatility in Phillips 66 has fallen by 4.2 percentage points since January 2 to the current level of 21.7%. Phillips 66’s stock price has risen 11.0% during the same period.
Stock price forecast
Phillips 66’s stock price forecast is estimated using the company’s implied volatility of 21.7%. The price range forecast assumes a normal distribution of prices and a standard deviation of one, which suggests a probability of 68.2%. Phillips 66’s stock price could close between $103.3 per share and $92.2 per share in the next 25 calendar days ending on April 30.
Peers’ implied volatility
Like Phillips 66, the implied volatility in Valero Energy (VLO) and Delek US Holdings (DK) has fallen by 1.1 percentage points and 7.6 percentage points, respectively, since January 2 to 25.5% and 35.2%, respectively. The implied volatility in Marathon Petroleum (MPC) has fallen by 2.9 percentage points since January 2 to the current level of 28.0%.
If we consider these refiners’ stock prices, Valero Energy and Delek US Holdings have risen 14.7% and 18.2%, respectively, since January 2. Marathon Petroleum stock has risen 6.4% during the same period. Since January 2, the implied volatility in these stocks has fallen. However, the stock prices have risen, which points toward an inverse relationship.