ExxonMobil’s stock price forecast
In this part, we’ll discuss the implied volatility in ExxonMobil to forecast its stock price range until March 29.
Expected price range
The implied volatility in ExxonMobil stock has fallen by 12.0 percentage points since January 2 to the current level of 18.1%. During the same period, ExxonMobil stock has risen 15.5%. So far in the first quarter, ExxonMobil’s implied volatility and its stock price have moved inversely.
Considering ExxonMobil’s implied volatility of 18.1% and assuming a normal distribution of prices and standard deviation of one—with a probability of 68.2%, ExxonMobil’s stock price could close between $82.5 per share and $78.5 per share for the seven days ending March 29.
Peers’ implied volatility
The implied volatility in PetroChina (PTR) has fallen by 7.8 percentage points since January 2 to the current level of 25.6%. The implied volatility in YPF (YPF) and Suncor Energy (SU) has fallen by 13.0 percentage points and 12.3 percentage points, respectively, during the same period. Currently, YPF and Suncor Energy’s implied volatilities are 37.1% and 21.2%, respectively.
PetroChina, YPF, and Suncor Energy’s stock prices have risen 8.4%, 0.3%, and 19.0%, respectively, since January 2. These stocks and their implied volatilities have moved in the opposite direction in the first quarter.