Expected price range
In the previous part, we discussed the trend in HollyFrontier’s (HFC) moving averages. Now, we’ll discuss HollyFrontier’s implied volatility to forecast its stock price range until March 29.
The implied volatility in HollyFrontier has fallen by eight percentage points compared to January 2 to the current level of 34%. During the same period, HollyFrontier stock has fallen 5%.
Considering HollyFrontier’s implied volatility of 34% and assuming a normal distribution of prices (bell curve model) and standard deviation of one (with a probability of 68.2%), HollyFrontier’s stock price could close between $52.8 per share and $44.8 per share for the 21 days ending March 29.
Peers’ implied volatilities
The implied volatilities in Delek US Holdings (DK), Phillips 66 (PSX), and PBF Energy (PBF) have fallen by eight percentage points, nine percentage points, and nine percentage points, respectively, since January 2. PBF Energy stock has fallen 13% in the stated period. However, Phillips 66 stock has risen 7% in the first quarter. Delek US Holdings stock has been flat during the same period. Currently, the implied volatilities in Delek US Holdings, Phillips 66, and PBF Energy stand at 39%, 23%, and 37%, respectively.
The implied volatilities in the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA) and the SPDR S&P 500 ETF’s (SPY), which closely resemble the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 Index, respectively, have fallen.
The implied volatilities in DIA and SPY have fallen by eight percentage points and ten percentage points, respectively, since January 2 to the current levels of 14% and 13%, respectively. During the same period, DIA and SPY’s values have risen 9% and 10%, respectively.
Next, we’ll discuss HollyFrontier’s dividend yield trend.