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What Are the Odds of CRC Beating Its 1Q18 Earnings Estimates?

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Odds of beating earnings estimates

In the last four quarters, California Resources (CRC) beat its consensus EPS (earnings per share) estimates in 1Q17, 3Q17, and 4Q17. However, CRC missed its EPS estimate in 2Q17. 

Thus, in the last four quarters, CRC has beaten the consensus EPS estimate 75% of the time and missed the estimate 25% of the time.

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What was CRC’s stock price reaction to its 4Q17 earnings?

California Resources announced its 4Q17 earnings on February 26, 2018, after the market closed. In 4Q17, California Resources reported revenue of ~$455 million, much lower than analysts’ consensus estimate of ~$535 million. However, CRC stock beat the consensus EPS estimate by $0.24 in 4Q17. CRC reported adjusted EPS (earnings per share) of -$0.33, whereas analysts’ consensus EPS estimate was -$0.57.

Following CRC’s earnings release, better-than-expected earnings saw its stock price rise from $14.98 to $17.90 in eight sessions.

CRC’s year-to-date performance

Year-to-date in 2018, CRC is among the top-performing upstream companies with a 31% return. CRC is even broadly outperforming the SPDR S&P Oil and Gas Exploration & Production ETF (XOP), which represents an index of stocks across the energy industry. XOP has ~78% exposure to the oil and gas exploration and production industry. XOP has risen ~5% in 2018. To learn more about the best and worst upstream stock performers in 2018, check out Market Realist’s 2018’s Best- and Worst-Performing Upstream Energy Stocks.

Other oil and gas producers

In the last four quarters, other upstream players Marathon Oil (MRO), Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD), and Murphy Oil (MUR) have beaten earnings expectations ~75%, ~100%, and ~75% of the time, respectively.

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