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Important Price Levels for Natural Gas Futures Next Week

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Natural gas’s implied volatility

On April 12, 2018, natural gas’s implied volatility was 22.5%, just 0.4% more than its 15-day moving average.

Between April 5 and April 12, 2018, natural gas May futures rose 0.4% accompanied by a 7.1% rise in natural gas’s implied volatility. Since September 2017, the two variables have broadly moved together.

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Price forecast

Between April 13 and April 19, 2018, with a 68% probability, natural gas futures could close between $2.62 and $2.76 per MMBtu (per million British thermal units) based on natural gas’s implied volatility of 22.5% and assuming that the prices are normally distributed.

On April 12, natural gas May futures closed at $2.686 per MMBtu. ETFs like the United States Natural Gas ETF (UNG) and the ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Natural Gas (BOIL) are sensitive to natural gas’s moves. Between April 5 and April 12, 2018, natural gas May futures rose 0.4%. UNG rose 0.5%, while BOIL fell 0.1% in this period.

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