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Qdoba Mexican Eats: Will It See Same-Store Sales Growth in 2Q16?

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May. 6 2016, Updated 10:07 a.m. ET

Qdoba’s same-store sales growth

Now that we’ve discussed the Jack in the Box brand’s SSSG (same-store sales growth), we’ll move on to the SSSG of Qdoba Mexican Eats. Jack in the Box (JACK) management has set the SSSG guidance at 0% to 3% for 2Q16.

How Will Same-Store Sales Growth of JACK’s Qdoba Brand Perform in 2Q16?

Analysts are expecting Qdoba to register a systemwide SSSG of 2.2%, compared with 8.3% in 2Q15. Qdoba’s SSSG is expected to be driven by the implementation of new menu items such as Knockout Tacos and Loaded Tortilla Soup. Knockout Tacos were introduced in October 2015, which increased Qdoba’s traffic as well as check size in 1Q16. As the name Mexican Gumbo was confusing for customers, it was reintroduced in 2Q16 as Loaded Tortilla Soup. These new items and effective communication through advertising are expected to drive Qdoba’s SSSG.

Aiming to improve guests’ experience, Qdoba has been trying out new designs at its company-owned and franchised restaurants. In 2Q16, Qdoba is expected to finalize its model, which will be incorporated in new as well as existing units.

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Peer comparison

In the first quarter of 2016, Panera Bread (PNRA), Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG), and Brinker International (EAT) posted SSSGs of 4.7%, -29.7%, and -3.6%, respectively.

Outlook

Analysts are expecting the new designs and new menu items to improve Qdoba’s SSSG in 3Q16 and 4Q16 to 2.6% and 3.1%, respectively. For fiscal 2016, analysts are expecting the SSSG to be 2.4%. The company’s management has set the SSSG guidance for 2016 at 2% to 3%. JACK forms 0.34% of the holdings of the iShares Russell 2000 Growth ETF (IWO). In the next article, we’ll discuss JACK’s unit growth.

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