What Are Analysts Estimating for Boeing in 2016?



Analyst estimates

Following Boeing’s (BA) 4Q15 earnings release, analysts’ consensus estimates have been revised down slightly. For 1Q16, sales are expected to decline slightly by 0.31% at $22 billion. The company’s EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization) is expected to decline by 2.3% to $2,420 million.

BA’s sales are expected to decline for 2Q15 and 3Q15 and grow by 3% in 4Q16. Its EBITDA is expected to grow through the rest of 2016.

For 2016, analysts estimate that Boeing’s sales should decline by 1.7% to $94.5 billion while its EBITDA is expected to grow by 14% to slightly more than $10.5 billion. Its EPS (earnings per share) is expected to rise by ~12% to $8.68.

Sales growth is expected to increase to 3% for both 2017 and 2018. However, the company’s growth in profitability is expected to slow going forward. For 2017 and 2018, analysts expect its EBITDA to grow by 5% while its EPS is expected to increase by 10% in 2017 and by 12% in 2018.

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Analyst recommendations

Of the 24 analysts rating Boeing’s stock, 62.5% (15 analysts) have a “buy” rating, 29.2% (seven analysts) have a “hold” rating, and 8.3% (two analysts) have a “sell” rating.

Target price

Boeing stock’s consensus 12-month target price is $151.16, which indicates a 28% return potential. Analysts’ 12-month target prices for BA’s peers are as follows:

  • United Technologies (UTX): $105.13 with 22% return potential
  • Lockheed Martin (LMT): $231.75 with 12% return potential
  • General Dynamics (GD): $160.75 with 25% return potential
  • Rockwell Collins (COL): $95.63 with 18% return potential
  • Raytheon (RTN): $138.44 with 13% return potential

Boeing (BA) forms ~6.5% of the iShares US Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA). In the next article, we will wrap up this series by looking at BA’s valuation multiple.


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