Turquoise Hill Resources Ltd
Freeport or Glencore: Which Company Looks Set for 2017?
According to data compiled by Thomson Reuters, analysts expect Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) to post an adjusted EBITDA of $5.3 billion in 2017, compared to $4.9 billion in 2016.
What to Expect from Freeport-McMoRan’s 3Q15 Earnings
Looking at Freeport’s earnings sensitivity to WTI and copper prices, its 3Q15 earnings could take a hit compared to the previous quarter.
Global Copper Inventory Stabilizes, Supports Prices
Stable copper inventories seem to support copper prices. Copper’s upside might be capped due to global uncertainty and copper’s projected surplus.
How Are Analysts Rating Southern Copper This Month?
According to consensus estimates compiled by Bloomberg, Southern Copper (SCCO) has a one-year price target of $27.82—7.5% above its current stock price.
Do Analysts See Value in Turquoise Hill Resources?
According to Reuters, TRQ has a mean one-year price target of 5.68 Canadian dollars (~$4.28), which is a 24.3% upside over its closing price on January 20.
Chinese Copper Imports Impact the Global Inventory
Since China’s refined copper imports started to taper down starting in April, we saw big drawdowns in the SHFE copper inventory.
Key Takeaways from Freeport-McMoRan’s 3Q16 Earnings Call
During its 3Q16 earnings call, Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) reduced its production guidance. The company expects its 2016 copper shipments to be 4.8 billion pounds.
Copper Industry Gets a Lift in 1H2015
In this series, we’ll discuss recent copper industry indicators. We’ll see how copper prices have done in 2015. We’ll also discuss copper supply trends and demand.
AMFQX: Structural Analysis of an Alternative Mutual Fund
Some of the AMFQX fund’s top holdings include floating-rate notes of Apple, JPMorgan Chase, Turquoise Hill Resources, and Hewlett-Packard Enterprise.
Is There a Disconnect between Chinese Copper Imports and Demand?
Oil and copper are two critical commodities that China is deficient in and must import in large quantities.
Do Lower Chinese Copper Imports Concern Freeport?
In October, China imported 290,000 metric tons of unwrought copper and copper products—a yearly fall of more than 31%. Imports have fallen for seven months.
Copper’s Spike Could Impact Freeport’s Debt Reduction Plan
During its 4Q15 earnings conference call, Freeport mentioned a debt reduction program to raise $5 billion–$10 billion to shore up its balance sheet.
After Dividend Reinstatement, What’s Freeport’s Next Priority?
As we noted previously, Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) has reinstated its dividend, which was suspended in 2015. Glencore (GLEN-L) has already reinstated its dividends.
China’s June Copper Imports: Are Slowdown Talks a Sham?
China isn’t self-sufficient when it comes to raw materials. When it comes to copper imports, it’s the largest importer of copper ores, anodes, and refined copper.
What Would Future Asset Sales Mean for Freeport-McMoRan?
Although additional asset sales would be positive for Freeport-McMoRan, we might not see a big pop in prices similar to the Morenci transaction.
AMFQX Had an Overall Market Beta of Zero at the End of 4Q15
At the end of 4Q15, the fund had an overall market beta of zero compared to the beta of 0.04 of its benchmark Morningstar Managed Futures Category Average.
Sluggish Chinese Copper Imports Spell Trouble for Freeport
China isn’t self-sufficient when it comes to its copper needs. While copper mining is concentrated in Latin America, more than half of the world’s copper is consumed in Asia.
How Could Rio Tinto’s Copper Production Pan Out Going Forward?
Copper volumes are key for companies that produce copper. In this part of the series, we’ll look at Rio Tinto’s (RIO) copper production profile.
Rio’s Earnings in 2017: What’s Impacting Its Estimates?
Analysts are concerned about Rio Tinto’s (RIO) overexposure to iron ore. The commodity contributes ~70% of Rio’s EBITDA.
How Much Are Supply-Side Factors Helping Copper Prices?
Producers like Freeport-McMoRan and Glencore announced production cuts last year in response to falling metal prices. There were also unplanned outages.
China’s July Copper Imports: What They Mean for Freeport-McMoRan
In July, China imported 360,000 metric tons of unwrought copper and copper products. That was a YoY (year-over-year) increase of only 3.4%.
Freeport-McMoRan’s 1Q18 Earnings: Reading between the Lines
Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) released its 1Q18 earnings today and reported revenues of $4.8 billion.
These Factors Hit Rio Tinto’s Earnings Most
Rio Tinto returned to profitability in 2016 after a hard 2015. The company is now trying to sustain its margins in a low commodity price environment.
Can Copper Prices Break Free in 4Q16?
In our view, for Freeport-McMoRan to come out of its narrow trading range, it would need some support from copper prices.
Can Freeport-McMoRan’s 3Q15 Earnings Surprise Markets?
Freeport-McMoRan is expected to release its 3Q15 financial results on October 22, 2015.
Why Rio Tinto’s Copper Production Could Have More Downside
Copper volumes are key for companies that produce copper. In this article, we’ll look at Rio Tinto’s (RIO) copper production profile.
Why the Grasberg Mine Is Crucial to Freeport’s 2017 Plans
Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) owns the Grasberg copper and gold mine in Indonesia (EIDO). Rio Tinto (RIO) (TRQ) is Freeport’s partner in this mine.
Is Freeport-McMoRan Fairly Valued at Its Current Levels?
In this part of our series, we’ll share a valuation analysis for Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) and compare it with other companies in the mining space.
Freeport-McMoRan’s Management: Its Litmus Test for 2017
Freeport-McMoRan and the Indonesian government have economic interests in keeping the Grasberg mine running.
The Love-Hate Relationship between Freeport and Indonesia
According to Freeport-McMoRan’s agreement with Indonesia’s government, it must divest an additional 20.6% stake in its Indonesian operations to the government or its citizens.
What Makes Grasberg the Crown Jewel of Freeport’s Portfolio
As we noted in the previous part of this series, Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) expects its unit cash costs to fall in 2018.
Why Grasberg Issues Dominated Freeport’s 4Q16 Earnings Call
Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) owns the Grasberg copper and gold mine in Indonesia (EIDO). Rio Tinto (RIO) (TRQ) is Freeport’s partner in this mine.
Will Freeport-McMoRan’s 4Q15 Earnings Calm Worried Investors?
Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) is expected to release its 4Q15 earnings on January 26. The company’s earnings will come as the company fights for survival.
How Were China’s Copper Imports in January?
Looking at copper import data, Chinese copper demand is not as weak as many are expecting.
Forget 2Q16: Real Action Could Be in Freeport-McMoRan’s 2H16 Earnings
According to consensus estimates, analysts expect Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) to post adjusted EBITDA of ~$1.0 billion in 2Q16.
Teck Resources Balance Sheet Healthy Despite Challenges
Liquidity and leverage are some of the key metrics that analysts track on any company’s balance sheet. A comfortable liquidity ratio is a positive thing.
Will Copper Prices Fall Even More Amid Global Carnage?
Spot copper prices on the LME (London Metals Exchange) closed at $5061 per metric ton on August 21—up roughly 1% from the previous day’s closing.
Factors Driving Rio Tinto’s Earnings Estimates in 2019 and Beyond
Rio Tinto (RIO) (TRQ) stock has returned -9.8% YTD (year-to-date) as of December 21.
Copper Inventory Games: Not This Time Please!
Both the bulls and the bears have used changes in copper inventory to support their arguments.
Freeport in Indonesia: Best-Case and Worst-Case Scenarios
Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) operates the giant Grasberg mine in Indonesia.
What’s the Best Outcome for Freeport in Indonesia?
Grasberg issues have dominated Freeport’s earnings calls. During its 4Q17 earnings call, Freeport noted that it has made “a lot of progress.”
Why Analysts’ Optimism for Vale SA Has Increased in Recent Months
Among the miners we’re discussing in this series, Vale SA (VALE) has the highest percentage of “buy” ratings at 65.2%. Another 30.4% of analysts rate it as a “hold,” while 4.3% of analysts recommend a “sell” on the stock.
Why Analysts Expect a Strong Pickup in Rio Tinto’s Margins
Rio Tinto (RIO) (TRQ) stock returned a positive 37.6% in 2017. The company has reignited its efforts to reduce its costs and increase its productivity.
Could Freeport-McMoRan Reinstate Its Dividend in 2018?
Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) has cut its net debt by more than half over the last two years. It achieved that by exiting its energy assets and selling some of its copper assets.
How the Grasberg Divestment Could Impact Freeport-McMoRan
Freeport’s earnings from the Grasberg operation could fall after it divests its stake in the giant mine.
Did Optimism over the Grasberg Resolution Help Freeport?
Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) operates the giant Grasberg mine in Indonesia (EIDO). The mine, where Rio Tinto (RIO) (TRQ) is Freeport’s minority partner, is the second-largest mine globally after BHP Billiton’s (BHP) Escondida mine.
Freeport’s Indonesia Deal: So Near, yet So Far
Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) and the Indonesian government are discussing the fine print of extending the company’s mining license in the country beyond 2021.
Freeport’s Indonesia Issues Just Keep Increasing
Copper markets will closely follow the developments at Grasberg in the coming weeks. The developments could impact global copper markets.
How Analysts Factor Rio Tinto’s Earnings for 2017 and Beyond
While Rio Tinto’s revenues imply YoY growth of 17.0%, its EBITDA implies still higher growth of 41% to $17.5 billion in 2017.
Freeport-McMoRan’s 2017 Outlook: Grasberg Remains the Wild Card
In this article, we’ll look at Freeport’s 2017 outlook, keeping in mind both the bearish and bullish arguments.
Teck Resources’ 1Q17 Earnings: Everything You Need to Know
Teck Resources (TECK), the Canadian-based (EWC) diversified miner, released its 1Q17 earnings on April 25.
Recent Changes to Rio Tinto’s Earnings Estimates
Rio Tinto’s (RIO) EBITDA projection is $17.9 billion for 2017. Analysts have changed their earnings projections several times during the last year.
SCCO or FCX: Which Can Offer Production Upside in 2017?
Freeport expects to ship 1.9 million metric tons of copper, 2.2 million ounces of gold, and 92 million pounds of molybdenum in 2017.
Freeport-McMoRan’s Outlook: What’s Making the Markets Jittery?
Freeport’s geographical production mix is expected to change in 2017. It expects to ship 1.5 billion pounds of copper from its North American mines.
Freeport-McMoRan’s Indonesian Export Permit: What You Should Know
Earlier this year, Freeport’s Indonesian export permit expired. The Indonesian government is revising its guidelines for exporting unprocessed ore.
Freeport-McMoRan’s Will-She-Won’t-She Moment with Indonesia
As of February 12, 2017, Freeport-McMoRan is barred from exporting copper ore from the Grasberg mine in Indonesia.
What’s the Biggest Risk to Freeport’s 2017 Guidance?
Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) expects its copper shipments to fall on a yearly basis in 2017, and it expects its gold and molybdenum shipments to rise year-over-year (or YoY).
How Are Analysts Seeing Teck Resources before Its 4Q16 Earnings?
Teck Resources (TCK) is expected to release its 4Q16 earnings on February 15. The stock gained ~550% in 2016.
FCX Investor Notes: Could Grasberg Make Headlines in 2017?
Freeport-McMoRan and Rio Tinto, FCX’s partner in the Grasberg mine, are spending ~$1 billion per year to convert the mine to underground operations (BHP).
How Could Asset Sales Impact FCX’s 2017 Copper Volumes?
Freeport-McMoRan’s (FCX) 2017 copper volumes are expected to fall to 4.3 billion pounds—more than 10% below its expected 2016 volumes.
How Freeport-McMoRan’s Growth Drivers Could Change in 2017
Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) needs to sign a fresh contract with the Indonesian government regarding its Grasberg mine.
Has Wall Street Changed Its Opinion about Teck Resources?
Teck Resources (TCK) has been one of the best-performing companies in the metals and mining space (XME) in 2016. The stock has gained a whopping 556% YTD (year-to-date).
How Are Analysts Rating Southern Copper amid Improved Sentiments?
According to consensus estimates compiled by Thomson Reuters, Southern Copper has a mean one-year price target of $31.69, a 3.2% downside over its December 23, 2016, closing price.
Do Analysts See Freeport-McMoRan as a ‘Buy’ after the Election?
According to consensus estimates compiled by Thomson Reuters, Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) has a mean one-year price target of $13.14.
Could the Federal Rate Hike Impact Freeport-McMoRan Stock?
The uncertainty over the long-awaited US interest rate hike finally ended when the Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 basis points on December 14, 2016.
Why Margin Projections for Rio Tinto Have Seen a Boost
Analysts are concerned about Rio Tinto’s (RIO) (TRQ) overexposure to iron ore. The commodity contributes ~70% of Rio’s earnings.
Trump or China: What’s Supporting Copper Prices?
Copper prices rose after Donald Trump was elected as the next US president. However, copper prices were strengthening before the election.
Freeport Investors Are Confused: Why Did Copper Rally?
Copper producers’ earnings including Freeport-McMoRan (FCX), Teck Resources (TCK), and Rio Tinto (RIO) (TRQ) are sensitive to copper prices.
What Do China’s Surging Car Sales Mean for Freeport’s Stock?
China’s investment in fixed assets rose 8.3% YoY in the first ten months of 2016.
Freeport-McMoRan: 2017 Is Okay, What about 2018?
Freeport expects to mine higher ore grades at the Grasberg mine until 1Q18. It would have a positive impact on the company’s unit production costs.
What Are Freeport’s Near-Term Growth Drivers?
Freeport expects its copper shipments to fall next year due to asset sales. The falling trend in its copper shipments could continue beyond 2017.
Freeport Investors Need to Brace for Lower Copper Volumes
Freeport’s 3Q16 shipments were lower than its guidance. While its energy sales were higher than its guidance, its gold and copper volumes fell short.
Let’s Get Real: Can Donald Trump Revive Copper Markets?
Donald Trump plans to pump billions of dollars to revive the US infrastructure. Massive infrastructure investments could boost US copper demand.
Trump or Clinton: Whose Policies Could Boost Freeport-McMoRan?
Market observers are closely following the current election. This isn’t surprising given the diametrically opposed stances of the two candidates on key economic issues.
Lower Gold Volumes Eat into Freeport-McMoRan’s 3Q16 Profits
Freeport-McMoRan generated adjusted EBITDA of $1.3 billion in 3Q16. It posted adjusted EBITDA of $966 million in 2Q16 and $623 million in 3Q15.
Why the Market Shrugged Off Freeport-McMoRan’s 3Q16 Earnings Miss
Freeport-McMoRan released its 3Q16 earnings before the market opened on October 25, 2016. The company reported adjusted EPS (earnings per share) of $0.13.
What Prompted JPMorgan Chase to Upgrade Vale?
The word on Wall Street The market has given a consensus rating of “hold” to Vale (VALE). Of the 30 analysts covering the stock, 13% have given it a “buy” recommendation, 23% have recommended a “sell,” and 64% have given it a “hold” rating. Vale’s target price is $5.75, which implies a downside potential of 1%. Scotia […]
Why’s Rio Tinto Getting Under Analysts’ Skin?
Factors impacting Rio’s estimates Analysts are concerned about Rio Tinto’s (RIO) (TRQ) overexposure to iron ore. It contributes ~70% of Rio’s EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization). Analysts’ long-term views on iron ore prices are still bearish. They expect prices to start correcting in 4Q16 and to remain weaker going forward as Vale’s […]
Southern Copper Gets Stock Kiss of Death from Some Analysts
Of the 23 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg, only four rated Southern Copper (SCCO) a “buy,” while seven rated it a “sell.” Most of the analysts rate the stock a “hold.”
Key Factors That Impacted Freeport-McMoRan’s 3Q16 Price Movement
Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) largely traded sideways in the beginning of August, hovering around the $12 price level.
How Do Chinese Copper Demand Indicators Look This Month?
It’s important for investors in companies such as Freeport-McMoRan, BHP Billiton, and Rio Tinto to track Chinese copper demand indicators.
What Caught the Attention of Analysts Evaluating Vale SA?
Analysts are happy about Vale’s volume growth in the coming years due to its ongoing expansion project. But they’re still wary of lower prices.
Overexposure to Iron Ore Pressures This Key Fundamental for RIO
Analysts are concerned about Rio Tinto’s (RIO) overexposure to iron ore. It contributes 70% to Rio’s EBITDA.
Gold Could Put the Sparkle Back in Freeport-McMoRan’s 2017 Earnings
Freeport-McMoRan’s gold volumes in 1H16 totaled only 357,000 ounces. However, the company expects its gold volumes to increase to ~1.4 million ounces in 2H16.
Why Copper Prices Have Fallen despite Strong Fundamentals
Theoretically, copper’s long-term fundamentals are better in comparison to steel, aluminum, and iron ore.
Freeport’s Indonesia Problems Aren’t Over Yet
Indonesia’s mining ministry has recommended granting an export permit to Freeport until January 11, 2017. The current export permit expired on August 8.
Asset Sales Still in Play to Add Value for Freeport Shareholders
Asset sales and debt reduction have been key drivers of Freeport-McMoRan’s 2016 performance. The company has announced asset sales of ~$4.5 billion this year.
Did Higher Crude Prices Help Freeport’s Energy Business in 2Q16?
While Southern Copper and Turquoise Hill Resources are pure-play copper producers, Freeport-McMoRan has significant energy exposure.
Rio Tinto’s Earnings during 1H16 Were Driven by This
Rio Tinto reported its 1H16 results on August 3, 2016. Its underlying earnings came in at $1.6 billion, 7% ahead of consensus expectations of $1.5 billion.
Freeport Analyzes the Way Forward after Its 2Q16 Earnings
Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) closed at $12.40 on August 2, 2016, falling ~0.6% from its previous day’s close.
Freeport-McMoRan’s Q2 Call: Indonesia and Debt Reduction
We looked at Freeport-McMoRan’s (FCX) 2Q16 financial results. Now, we’ll look at the key takeaways from the company’s 2Q16 earnings conference call.
Why Freeport-McMoRan’s Q2 Earnings Rose Sequentially
Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) generated adjusted EBITDA of $966 million in 2Q16. To put this in context, consider that Freeport posted adjusted EBITDA of $873 million in 1Q16 and ~$1.2 billion in 2Q15.
Mid-Year Review: What Lies ahead for Freeport in 2016?
This series focuses on Freeport’s outlook for the remaining half of 2016. We’ll first see what factors drove Freeport’s price action so far in 2016.
Why China’s Bonded Copper Stocks Continue to Rise
As the Chinese currency gradually appreciated this year and Fed rate hike expectations started to fade away, we saw bonded copper stocks rise again in China.
Chinese Copper Demand Indicators: Not That Worrisome So Far
Since China (PGJ) is the largest copper consumer, it’s important for investors to keep track of Chinese copper demand indicators.
Could Record Chinese Copper Imports Support Freeport-McMoRan?
China’s copper imports seem to defy any slowdown fears in the country.
Rising Chinese Copper Imports Keep Analysts Guessing
China’s copper imports have been strong. However, higher Chinese copper imports haven’t been matched by similar buoyancy in copper demand.
How Much Could Freeport-McMoRan’s Sale of Its Morenci Stake Impact Indonesia?
According to Freeport-McMoRan’s agreement with Indonesia’s government, it will divest a 20.6% stake in the Grasberg mine to the government or its citizens.
Should Record Copper Inventory in China Worry Freeport Investors?
Copper inventory in the SHFE (Shanghai Futures Exchange) has reached record highs this month. As of March 10, SHFE had 350,000 metric tons of copper inventory.
A Puzzle: What’s China Doing with So Much Copper?
While China is the largest copper consumer, it isn’t self-sufficient in its raw material needs.