Turquoise Hill Resources Ltd
Factors Driving Rio Tinto’s Earnings Estimates in 2019 and Beyond
Rio Tinto (RIO) (TRQ) stock has returned -9.8% YTD (year-to-date) as of December 21.
Factors that Analysts Expect to Drive Rio Tinto’s Earnings Growth
In 2018, analysts expect Rio Tinto’s revenues to rise marginally, with a 0.4% year-over-year increase to $40.2 billion.
Grasberg Mine: Freeport-McMoRan’s Outlook Is Murky
Freeport-McMoRan doesn’t know how the situation will unfold in Indonesia. Indonesia’s presidential elections could complicate things even more.
Freeport-McMoRan: Are the Markets Ignoring Some Risk Factors?
For now, risk assets seem to be finding a way to live with President Trump’s tariffs and the retaliation from the country’s trade partners.
Freeport-McMoRan: Should You Give Up on It after a 20% Rally?
Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) has been having a strong run since May. Could there be more upside?
Freeport-McMoRan Faces a $3.5 Billion Question
Grasberg is the second-largest copper mine after Escondida, which is operated by BHP Billiton (BHP).
Freeport-McMoRan: Analyzing the Grasberg Concerns
Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) operates the Grasberg mine in Indonesia—the world’s second-largest mine after BHP Billiton’s (BHP) Escondida mine.
Could Markets Have Pre-Empted Freeport’s Massive Slide?
Issues in Indonesia may have made investors wary of Freeport.
Freeport-McMoRan’s 1Q18 Earnings: Reading between the Lines
Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) released its 1Q18 earnings today and reported revenues of $4.8 billion.
Uncertainties Surround Freeport’s Indonesia Operations
Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) operates the Grasberg mine in Indonesia (EIDO) with Rio Tinto (RIO) (TRQ) as a minority partner.
Copper Inventory Games: Not This Time Please!
Both the bulls and the bears have used changes in copper inventory to support their arguments.
What Are Freeport-McMoRan’s Long-Term Growth Drivers?
Freeport has several greenfield copper exploration opportunities.
Freeport in Indonesia: Best-Case and Worst-Case Scenarios
Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) operates the giant Grasberg mine in Indonesia.
What Makes Grasberg the Crown Jewel of Freeport’s Portfolio
As we noted in the previous part of this series, Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) expects its unit cash costs to fall in 2018.
After Dividend Reinstatement, What’s Freeport’s Next Priority?
As we noted previously, Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) has reinstated its dividend, which was suspended in 2015. Glencore (GLEN-L) has already reinstated its dividends.
What’s the Best Outcome for Freeport in Indonesia?
Grasberg issues have dominated Freeport’s earnings calls. During its 4Q17 earnings call, Freeport noted that it has made “a lot of progress.”
Are Analysts’ Estimates for Freeport’s Revenues Conservative?
Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters expect Freeport to post revenues of $4.7 billion in 4Q17, which is 9.5% higher than the sequential quarter.
Why Analysts’ Optimism for Vale SA Has Increased in Recent Months
Among the miners we’re discussing in this series, Vale SA (VALE) has the highest percentage of “buy” ratings at 65.2%. Another 30.4% of analysts rate it as a “hold,” while 4.3% of analysts recommend a “sell” on the stock.
Why Analysts Expect a Strong Pickup in Rio Tinto’s Margins
Rio Tinto (RIO) (TRQ) stock returned a positive 37.6% in 2017. The company has reignited its efforts to reduce its costs and increase its productivity.
Could Freeport-McMoRan Reinstate Its Dividend in 2018?
Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) has cut its net debt by more than half over the last two years. It achieved that by exiting its energy assets and selling some of its copper assets.
How the Grasberg Divestment Could Impact Freeport-McMoRan
Freeport’s earnings from the Grasberg operation could fall after it divests its stake in the giant mine.
Did Optimism over the Grasberg Resolution Help Freeport?
Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) operates the giant Grasberg mine in Indonesia (EIDO). The mine, where Rio Tinto (RIO) (TRQ) is Freeport’s minority partner, is the second-largest mine globally after BHP Billiton’s (BHP) Escondida mine.
Freeport’s Indonesia Deal: So Near, yet So Far
Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) and the Indonesian government are discussing the fine print of extending the company’s mining license in the country beyond 2021.
Why Analysts Have Been Turning Bullish on Glencore
On December 5, BMO Capital upgraded Glencore from “market perform” to “outperform.”
Freeport Investors Should Follow the FOMC’s Meeting
The FOMC’s (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting is scheduled for December 12–13. So far, the Fed has raised rates twice this year.
What’s Driving Estimates for Rio Tinto in 2017 and Beyond?
Rio Tinto’s (RIO)(TRQ) stock has gained 24% year-to-date. The company’s efforts at cost reduction, its balance sheet improvement, and buoyant commodity prices have significantly improved its prospects.
Freeport and Indonesia: The Tussle Continues
Freeport and the Indonesian government are involved in a discussion to extend Freeport’s mining rights in Indonesia beyond 2021.
Indonesia Issues Kept Freeport in the Limelight Last Week
Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) owns the giant Grasberg mine in Indonesia along with Rio Tinto (RIO) (TRQ).
Freeport’s Major Risks in the Short Term
A strong balance sheet helped address one of key investors’ concerns regarding Freeport’s higher leverage ratio.
Freeport’s Indonesia Issues Just Keep Increasing
Copper markets will closely follow the developments at Grasberg in the coming weeks. The developments could impact global copper markets.
Digging Deeper into Freeport-McMoRan’s 3Q17 Revenue Beat
Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) posted revenue of $4.31 billion in 3Q17. In comparison, the company posted revenues of $3.71 billion in 2Q17 and $3.87 billion in 3Q16.
Why Turquoise Hill Resources’ Analyst Ratings Matter
Turquoise Hill Resources (TRQ) has received a “strong buy” rating from two analysts, while three analysts have rated the stock a “buy.”
How the Analysts View Teck Resources, a Diversified Miner
Teck Resources is a Canada-based diversified miner that produces steelmaking coal, zinc, and copper and invests in oil sands in partnership with Suncor.
Reading Southern Copper’s Analyst Ratings
Of the 11 analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters on October 6, only two have rated Southern Copper stock as a “buy” or some equivalent.
Which Major Copper Stock Has the Most ‘Buy’ Recommendations?
Glencore (GLEN-L) was the third-largest copper producer last year, after Codelco and Freeport-McMoRan (FCX).
What’s the Word on the Wall Street Regarding Vale SA?
According to the consensus compiled by Thomson Reuters, 48% of the analysts recommend a “hold” for Vale stock compared to 43% recommending a “buy.”
How Analysts Factor Rio Tinto’s Earnings for 2017 and Beyond
While Rio Tinto’s revenues imply YoY growth of 17.0%, its EBITDA implies still higher growth of 41% to $17.5 billion in 2017.
Copper Prices Defy Gravity, Maintain the $6,500 Price Level
Copper prices have been on fire in the past month. Copper has topped $6,500. Based on the closing prices on August 25, copper has gained 22.2% in 2017.
These Factors Hit Rio Tinto’s Earnings Most
Rio Tinto returned to profitability in 2016 after a hard 2015. The company is now trying to sustain its margins in a low commodity price environment.
Freeport-McMoRan’s 2017 Outlook: Grasberg Remains the Wild Card
In this article, we’ll look at Freeport’s 2017 outlook, keeping in mind both the bearish and bullish arguments.
Teck Resources’ 1Q17 Earnings: Everything You Need to Know
Teck Resources (TECK), the Canadian-based (EWC) diversified miner, released its 1Q17 earnings on April 25.
Recent Changes to Rio Tinto’s Earnings Estimates
Rio Tinto’s (RIO) EBITDA projection is $17.9 billion for 2017. Analysts have changed their earnings projections several times during the last year.
Freeport or Glencore: Which Company Looks Set for 2017?
According to data compiled by Thomson Reuters, analysts expect Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) to post an adjusted EBITDA of $5.3 billion in 2017, compared to $4.9 billion in 2016.
SCCO or FCX: Which Can Offer Production Upside in 2017?
Freeport expects to ship 1.9 million metric tons of copper, 2.2 million ounces of gold, and 92 million pounds of molybdenum in 2017.
Freeport-McMoRan’s Management: Its Litmus Test for 2017
Freeport-McMoRan and the Indonesian government have economic interests in keeping the Grasberg mine running.
Freeport-McMoRan’s Outlook: What’s Making the Markets Jittery?
Freeport’s geographical production mix is expected to change in 2017. It expects to ship 1.5 billion pounds of copper from its North American mines.
Freeport-McMoRan’s Indonesian Export Permit: What You Should Know
Earlier this year, Freeport’s Indonesian export permit expired. The Indonesian government is revising its guidelines for exporting unprocessed ore.
Freeport-McMoRan’s Will-She-Won’t-She Moment with Indonesia
As of February 12, 2017, Freeport-McMoRan is barred from exporting copper ore from the Grasberg mine in Indonesia.
Why the Grasberg Mine Is Crucial to Freeport’s 2017 Plans
Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) owns the Grasberg copper and gold mine in Indonesia (EIDO). Rio Tinto (RIO) (TRQ) is Freeport’s partner in this mine.
What’s the Biggest Risk to Freeport’s 2017 Guidance?
Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) expects its copper shipments to fall on a yearly basis in 2017, and it expects its gold and molybdenum shipments to rise year-over-year (or YoY).
Why Grasberg Issues Dominated Freeport’s 4Q16 Earnings Call
Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) owns the Grasberg copper and gold mine in Indonesia (EIDO). Rio Tinto (RIO) (TRQ) is Freeport’s partner in this mine.
Do Analysts See Value in Turquoise Hill Resources?
According to Reuters, TRQ has a mean one-year price target of 5.68 Canadian dollars (~$4.28), which is a 24.3% upside over its closing price on January 20.
How Are Analysts Seeing Teck Resources before Its 4Q16 Earnings?
Teck Resources (TCK) is expected to release its 4Q16 earnings on February 15. The stock gained ~550% in 2016.
Freeport’s 4Q16 Call: Will There Be a Dividend Update?
Both Freeport-McMoRan’s (FCX) and Glencore (GLNCY) suffered from the same issues last year—falling commodity prices and higher leverage ratios (TCK).
Rio’s Earnings in 2017: What’s Impacting Its Estimates?
Analysts are concerned about Rio Tinto’s (RIO) overexposure to iron ore. The commodity contributes ~70% of Rio’s EBITDA.
FCX Investor Notes: Could Grasberg Make Headlines in 2017?
Freeport-McMoRan and Rio Tinto, FCX’s partner in the Grasberg mine, are spending ~$1 billion per year to convert the mine to underground operations (BHP).
How Could Asset Sales Impact FCX’s 2017 Copper Volumes?
Freeport-McMoRan’s (FCX) 2017 copper volumes are expected to fall to 4.3 billion pounds—more than 10% below its expected 2016 volumes.
How Freeport-McMoRan’s Growth Drivers Could Change in 2017
Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) needs to sign a fresh contract with the Indonesian government regarding its Grasberg mine.
Has Wall Street Changed Its Opinion about Teck Resources?
Teck Resources (TCK) has been one of the best-performing companies in the metals and mining space (XME) in 2016. The stock has gained a whopping 556% YTD (year-to-date).
How Are Analysts Rating Southern Copper amid Improved Sentiments?
According to consensus estimates compiled by Thomson Reuters, Southern Copper has a mean one-year price target of $31.69, a 3.2% downside over its December 23, 2016, closing price.
Do Analysts See Freeport-McMoRan as a ‘Buy’ after the Election?
According to consensus estimates compiled by Thomson Reuters, Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) has a mean one-year price target of $13.14.
Is a Trade War with China a Serious Risk for Freeport Investors?
During his campaign, Trump vowed to impose a 45% tax on imports from China. But his acceptance speech after winning had a tone of reconciliation.
Should Freeport Investors Follow Goldman’s Bullish Bet This Time?
Goldman Sachs has been bearish on base metals including copper and aluminum for a while. In August, the brokerage warned of a “supply storm” in copper.
Could the Federal Rate Hike Impact Freeport-McMoRan Stock?
The uncertainty over the long-awaited US interest rate hike finally ended when the Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 basis points on December 14, 2016.
Why Margin Projections for Rio Tinto Have Seen a Boost
Analysts are concerned about Rio Tinto’s (RIO) (TRQ) overexposure to iron ore. The commodity contributes ~70% of Rio’s earnings.
Trump or China: What’s Supporting Copper Prices?
Copper prices rose after Donald Trump was elected as the next US president. However, copper prices were strengthening before the election.
Freeport Investors Are Confused: Why Did Copper Rally?
Copper producers’ earnings including Freeport-McMoRan (FCX), Teck Resources (TCK), and Rio Tinto (RIO) (TRQ) are sensitive to copper prices.
How Much Are Supply-Side Factors Helping Copper Prices?
Producers like Freeport-McMoRan and Glencore announced production cuts last year in response to falling metal prices. There were also unplanned outages.
What Do China’s Surging Car Sales Mean for Freeport’s Stock?
China’s investment in fixed assets rose 8.3% YoY in the first ten months of 2016.
Copper’s Spike Could Impact Freeport’s Debt Reduction Plan
During its 4Q15 earnings conference call, Freeport mentioned a debt reduction program to raise $5 billion–$10 billion to shore up its balance sheet.
Freeport-McMoRan: 2017 Is Okay, What about 2018?
Freeport expects to mine higher ore grades at the Grasberg mine until 1Q18. It would have a positive impact on the company’s unit production costs.
What Are Freeport’s Near-Term Growth Drivers?
Freeport expects its copper shipments to fall next year due to asset sales. The falling trend in its copper shipments could continue beyond 2017.
Freeport Investors Need to Brace for Lower Copper Volumes
Freeport’s 3Q16 shipments were lower than its guidance. While its energy sales were higher than its guidance, its gold and copper volumes fell short.
Let’s Get Real: Can Donald Trump Revive Copper Markets?
Donald Trump plans to pump billions of dollars to revive the US infrastructure. Massive infrastructure investments could boost US copper demand.
Do Lower Chinese Copper Imports Concern Freeport?
In October, China imported 290,000 metric tons of unwrought copper and copper products—a yearly fall of more than 31%. Imports have fallen for seven months.
Elections, the Dollar, and Freeport: Is There a Connection?
In this article, we’ll explore how the economic policies of Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton could impact the US dollar (UUP).
Trump or Clinton: Whose Policies Could Boost Freeport-McMoRan?
Market observers are closely following the current election. This isn’t surprising given the diametrically opposed stances of the two candidates on key economic issues.
Key Takeaways from Freeport-McMoRan’s 3Q16 Earnings Call
During its 3Q16 earnings call, Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) reduced its production guidance. The company expects its 2016 copper shipments to be 4.8 billion pounds.
Lower Gold Volumes Eat into Freeport-McMoRan’s 3Q16 Profits
Freeport-McMoRan generated adjusted EBITDA of $1.3 billion in 3Q16. It posted adjusted EBITDA of $966 million in 2Q16 and $623 million in 3Q15.
Why the Market Shrugged Off Freeport-McMoRan’s 3Q16 Earnings Miss
Freeport-McMoRan released its 3Q16 earnings before the market opened on October 25, 2016. The company reported adjusted EPS (earnings per share) of $0.13.
Key Updates to Watch For in Freeport’s 3Q16 Earnings Call
In this article, we’ll look at some key updates investors (DIA) should watch for in Freeport’s 3Q16 earnings call.
What Prompted JPMorgan Chase to Upgrade Vale?
The word on Wall Street The market has given a consensus rating of “hold” to Vale (VALE). Of the 30 analysts covering the stock, 13% have given it a “buy” recommendation, 23% have recommended a “sell,” and 64% have given it a “hold” rating. Vale’s target price is $5.75, which implies a downside potential of 1%. Scotia […]
Why’s Rio Tinto Getting Under Analysts’ Skin?
Factors impacting Rio’s estimates Analysts are concerned about Rio Tinto’s (RIO) (TRQ) overexposure to iron ore. It contributes ~70% of Rio’s EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization). Analysts’ long-term views on iron ore prices are still bearish. They expect prices to start correcting in 4Q16 and to remain weaker going forward as Vale’s […]
Turquoise Hill Resources Receives Huge Boost to Its Stock Price
According to consensus estimates compiled by Bloomberg, Turquoise Hill Resources (TRQ) (RIO) has a one-year price target of $3.78. This represents a 29.5% upside over its October 13 closing price.
Southern Copper Gets Stock Kiss of Death from Some Analysts
Of the 23 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg, only four rated Southern Copper (SCCO) a “buy,” while seven rated it a “sell.” Most of the analysts rate the stock a “hold.”
Sluggish Chinese Copper Imports Spell Trouble for Freeport
China isn’t self-sufficient when it comes to its copper needs. While copper mining is concentrated in Latin America, more than half of the world’s copper is consumed in Asia.
Can Chinese Copper Demand Support Freeport-McMoRan in 4Q16?
The impact of moderating copper demand is visible in China’s copper imports. China’s refined copper imports have now fallen month-over-month for five consecutive months.
Can Copper Prices Break Free in 4Q16?
In our view, for Freeport-McMoRan to come out of its narrow trading range, it would need some support from copper prices.
Key Factors That Impacted Freeport-McMoRan’s 3Q16 Price Movement
Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) largely traded sideways in the beginning of August, hovering around the $12 price level.
Global Copper Inventory Stabilizes, Supports Prices
Stable copper inventories seem to support copper prices. Copper’s upside might be capped due to global uncertainty and copper’s projected surplus.
How Do Chinese Copper Demand Indicators Look This Month?
It’s important for investors in companies such as Freeport-McMoRan, BHP Billiton, and Rio Tinto to track Chinese copper demand indicators.
What Do Sagging Copper Prices Mean for Freeport-McMoRan?
Freeport-McMoRan expects its EBITDA for 2H16 to rise or fall by $325 million for every $0.10 per pound increase or decrease in copper prices.
Why You Can’t Compare FCX’s Energy Assets to Its Copper Assets
Some analysts believe that Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) sold its Deepwater Gulf of Mexico (or GOM) energy assets to Anadarko Petroleum (APC) at depressed valuations.
Why Copper Prices May Be Subdued for the Rest of the Year
Copper prices might be subdued in the second half of 2016. On the demand side, Chinese demand has moderated as the impact of the stimulus is slowly fading away.
Chinese Copper Imports Impact the Global Inventory
Since China’s refined copper imports started to taper down starting in April, we saw big drawdowns in the SHFE copper inventory.
What China’s Falling Copper Imports Mean for Freeport-McMoRan
In August, China imported 350,000 metric tons of unwrought copper and copper products. This is similar to the imports in the same month last year.
What Caught the Attention of Analysts Evaluating Vale SA?
Analysts are happy about Vale’s volume growth in the coming years due to its ongoing expansion project. But they’re still wary of lower prices.
Overexposure to Iron Ore Pressures This Key Fundamental for RIO
Analysts are concerned about Rio Tinto’s (RIO) overexposure to iron ore. It contributes 70% to Rio’s EBITDA.
How Are Analysts Rating Southern Copper This Month?
According to consensus estimates compiled by Bloomberg, Southern Copper (SCCO) has a one-year price target of $27.82—7.5% above its current stock price.
Gold Could Put the Sparkle Back in Freeport-McMoRan’s 2017 Earnings
Freeport-McMoRan’s gold volumes in 1H16 totaled only 357,000 ounces. However, the company expects its gold volumes to increase to ~1.4 million ounces in 2H16.