Rice Energy Inc

Hedge funds’ net long positions in US natural gas futures and options contracts rose 50% to 164,450 on January 16–23, 2018.

If, in real estate, everything is “location, location, location,” then with natural gas investing, everything is “weather, weather, weather.”

Between October 18 and October 25, 2017, natural gas active futures had a correlation of 27.4% with US crude oil futures.

Last week (ended October 20, 2017), the natural gas rig count fell by eight to 177.

Last week (ended October 13, 2017), the natural gas rig count fell by two to 185, but on a YoY (year-over-year) basis, the natural gas rig count rose 76.2%.

Under EQT Corporation’s (EQT) existing ownership, the company owns a 90% limited partner interest and non-economic general partner interest in EQT GP Holdings (EQGP).

In the week ended October 6, 2017, the natural gas rig count fell by two to 187.

On October 9, 2017, natural gas (BOIL) (FCG) November futures closed at $2.83 MMBtu (million British thermal units), which was 1% less than the previous day’s closing price.

In the week ended September 29, 2017, the natural gas rig count fell by one to 189. On a year-over-year basis, the natural gas rig count has risen ~97%.

Because of the Permian’s lowest break-even costs and high IRRs (internal rates of return), producers scooped up prime acreage that could produce at a profit even as crude oil prices stayed low.

Merger and acquisition (or M&A) activity in the oil and gas sector has been in high gear in 2017.

On September 18, 2017, the short interest ratio in Chesapeake Energy (CHK) stock was ~22%. In January, the short interest ratio was ~12%.

In the week ended September 1, natural gas inventories rose 65 Bcf (billion cubic feet) to 3,220 Bcf, based on the EIA data released on September 7.

Between September 1 and September 11, 2017, our collection of natural gas–weighted stocks fell 3.1%, while natural gas October futures fell 3.9%.

Following the close of the Rice acquisition, EQT’s Marcellus acreage would rise from 813,000 to 1.0 million.

EQT believes the PV (present value) of the synergies following the completion of the deal is more than the $2.5 billion it had initially specified.

EQT’s (EQT) proposed acquisition of Rice Energy (RICE) is expected to add around 1.3 Bcfe (billion cubic feet equivalent) per day to EQT’s natural gas volumes.

The difference between natural gas inventories and its five-year average, the inventories spread, could influence natural gas prices.

In the week ending August 11, 2017, natural gas inventories rose by 53 Bcf to 3,082 Bcf based on the EIA’s data released on August 17, 2017.

Between August 14 and August 21, 2017, natural gas–weighted stocks fell 1.1% compared to a 0.1% rise in the natural gas September futures during this period.

In the week ending August 4, 2017, natural gas inventories rose by 28 Bcf to 3,038 Bcf. The EIA reported natural gas inventory data on August 10, 2017.

The EIA (Energy Information Administration) estimates that monthly US dry natural gas production hit a ten-month high.

PointLogic estimates that weekly US dry natural gas production rose 0.1% to 72.8 Bcf (billion cubic feet) per day on July 27–August 2, 2017.

Natural gas–weighted stocks from the SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (XOP) collectively rose 1.9% on July 24–31, 2017.

In the week ending July 14, 2017, natural gas inventories rose by 28 Bcf to 2,973 Bcf. The market expected a rise of 39 Bcf for the week ending July 14.

Natural gas (UNG)(BOIL) September futures fell 4.2% between July 17 and 24, 2017. On July 24, natural gas September futures fell 2.7%.

In the week ended July 14, 2017, the natural gas rig count fell by two. However, in the trailing year, the natural gas rig count has more than doubled.

Antero Resources (AR) had the highest correlation of 98.4% with crude oil active futures among gas-weighted stocks in the week ending July 17, 2017.

On July 7, 2017, the short interest ratio in Chesapeake Energy (CHK) stock was ~15%. In January 2017, Chesapeake Energy’s short interest ratio was ~11.6%.

On Monday, July 3, 2017, activist hedge fund Jana Partners revealed a 5.8% stake in EQT (EQT). The hedge fund is hoping to thwart EQT’s plans to acquire Rice Energy (RICE).

The short interest ratio (or short interest as a percentage of float) in Noble Energy (NBL) stock on June 27, 2017, was ~3.4%.

To finance its Rice Energy (RICE) acquisition, EQT (EQT) plans to issue $5.4 billion in equity and pay $1.3 billion in cash.

Following the announcement of the EQT (EQT)–Rice Energy (RICE) deal, EQT’s stock was down ~10% on June 19. Rice Energy’s (RICE) stock, on the other hand, rose ~25%.

On Monday, June 19, 2017, EQT (EQT) announced that it intends to acquire Rice Energy (RICE).

On April 19, Cabot Oil and Gas’s short interest as a percentage of its float was ~4.5%. At the beginning of the year, its short interest ratio was 4.2%.

Chesapeake Energy’s (CHK) short interest ratio on March 24, 2017, was ~15.02%. But its short interest ratio at the start of the year was ~11.6%.

RMP’s natural gathering volume increased 71% year-over-year in 4Q16. The increase was largely driven by the partnership’s strong third-party volume growth.

On March 17, 2017, Chesapeake Energy’s (CHK) short interest ratio was ~15%. At the beginning of the year, its short interest ratio was ~11.6%.

On March 3, 2016, natural gas futures touched a 17-year low. From March 3, 2016, to March 20, 2017, natural gas rose 85.4% on a closing price basis.

On March 14, 2017, Cabot Oil and Gas’s (COG) short interest as a percentage of its float (or its short interest ratio) was ~3.5%.

On March 13, 2017, natural gas futures contracts for April 2017 delivery closed at $3.04 per MMBtu, which is ~1.2% above the previous closing price.

Chesapeake Energy’s (CHK) short interest ratio (short interest as a percentage of float) on March 10, 2017, was ~15%.

On March 3, 2016, natural gas futures touched a 17-year low of $1.64. From March 3, 2016, to March 6, 2017, natural gas rose 76.8% on a closing price basis.

On February 27, 2017, natural gas futures contracts for April 2017 delivery closed at $2.69 per MMBtu, which is ~3.4% below the previous closing price.

Cabot Oil & Gas (COG) reported its 4Q16 earnings on February 24. Its 4Q16 revenue was ~$316.5 million compared to analysts’ estimates of $355 million.

Chesapeake Energy’s (CHK) current implied volatility is 56%—about 1.5% higher than its 15-day average of 55.2%.

Chesapeake Energy reported its 4Q16 earnings before the market opened on February 24, 2017. Its 4Q16 revenue was ~$2 billion, compared to an estimate of ~$2.6 billion.

Rice Energy’s 2017 production guidance is 1,320 MMcfe/d. That’s a CAGR of ~70.0% since 2014.

Rice Energy’s (RICE) 4Q16 revenue rose ~109.0% YoY (year-over-year).

Rice Energy’ 4Q16 EPS (earnings per share) was $0.37 compared to analysts’ consensus estimate of $0.03. Its 4Q15 EPS was $0.16.

On February 17, 2017, natural gas futures (UNG) (BOIL) (FCG) contracts for March 2017 delivery closed at $2.83 per MMBtu (million British thermal units).

On March 3, 2016, natural gas futures touched a 17-year low. From March 3, 2016, to February 6, 2017, natural gas rose 86% on a closing price basis.

Chesapeake Energy’s (CHK) short interest ratio on January 27, 2017, was ~1.1%.

On January 27, 2017, Noble Energy’s short interest as a percentage of its float, or its short interest ratio, was ~3.4%. Its short interest ratio at the end of 3Q16 was ~2.6%.

Chesapeake Energy’s (CHK) short interest ratio (short interest as a percentage of float) on January 20, 2017, was ~11.56%.

In the two weeks since January 6, 2017, Chesapeake Energy (CHK) has returned about -4.6%, underperforming the energy sector.

Cabot Oil & Gas’s (COG) short interest ratio on January 17, 2017, was ~4.2%. Its short interest ratio two months ago was ~5.2%.

According to CHK’s December 2016 presentations, break-even prices in the Marcellus and Utica Shales are $2.00 per MMBtu and $2.15 per MMBtu, respectively.

Around 67% of analysts recommend Chesapeake Energy as a “hold.” The average broker target price of $7.54 implies a return of ~9% over the next 12 months.

Chesapeake has made it out of its volatile 2016 days and has given better returns than the SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (XOP).

Approximately 24% of analysts have rated Whiting Petroleum (WLL) a “strong buy” and ~55% have rated it as a “hold.”

On December 21, 2016, Anadarko Petroleum announced that it had agreed to sell a portion of its Marcellus natural gas (UGAZ) assets for ~$1.2 billion.

Chesapeake Energy stock closed $0.02 lower on December 20, but after its announcement of a second Haynesville Shale divestiture, it rose $0.02 to $7.31.

Ratings for Continental Resources Approximately 71% of analysts have rated Continental Resources (CLR) a “buy” and ~26% have rated it as a “hold.” The remaining ~3% have rated it a “sell.” The average broker target price of $58.69 for CLR implies a return of around 9% over the next 12 months. CLR makes up part […]

The single most important factor severely affecting producers in the Marcellus Shale has been insufficient takeaway capacity.

Cabot Oil & Gas’s operations are focused in two shale plays: Marcellus and Eagle Ford. COG holds ~200,000 net acres in Marcellus and ~86,000 net acres in Eagle Ford.

2016 has been good for natural gas prices (UGAZ). Prices have risen ~34% year-over-year.

Between November 14 and November 21, 2016, the natural gas futures contracts for December delivery rose 7.3%.

Antero Resources (AR) stock, though it has recovered from its 2015 lows, continues to stay volatile.

On November 14, the natural gas futures contracts for November delivery closed at $2.75 per MMBtu. They were ~4.9% above their previous closing price.

Cabot Oil & Gas’s (COG) current implied volatility is ~42.4%, which is ~1.1% lower than its 15-day average of 42.9%.

On March 3, 2016, natural gas futures touched a 17-year low of $1.64. From March 3 to October 24, 2016, natural gas rose 72.6% on a closing price basis.

Short interest On October 12, 2016, the short interest as a percentage of float, or the short interest ratio, of Cabot Oil & Gas’s (COG) stock was ~3%. Its short interest ratio on June 30, 2016, was 4%. This means that since the end of 2Q16, Cabot’s short interest has fallen ~27%. Cabot Oil & Gas’s […]

EQT (EQT) increased its 2016 production guidance range to 730–740 Bcfe (Billion cubic feet equivalent) from the previous 710–730 Bcfe it predicted during its 1Q16 earnings.

From March 3 to October 17, 2016, natural gas (UNG) (BOIL) (UGAZ) (FCG) rose 97.8% on a closing price basis.

On March 3, 2016, natural gas futures touched a 17-year low of $1.64. From March 3 to October 10, 2016, natural gas rose 99.7% on a closing price basis.

Following the news of its subpoena, Chesapeake Energy’s (CHK) implied volatility rose 4.6% on September 29 to ~83.8%.

On September 26, 2016, natural gas futures contracts for November delivery closed at $3.06 per MMBtu—1.4% above its previous closing price.

On March 3, 2016, natural gas futures touched a 17-year low of $1.64. From March 3 to September 19, 2016, natural gas rose 78.9% on a closing price basis.

In this part of the series, we’ll look at Chesapeake Energy’s (CHK) cash flow. In 2Q16, CHK reported cash flow from operations (or CFO) of ~$95 million.

On March 3, 2016, natural gas futures touched a 17-year low of $1.64. From March 3 to August 22, 2016, natural gas rose 58.6% on a closing price basis.

As of August 17, 2016, institutional investors had increased their positions in Rice Energy (RICE) since 2Q16.

A peer group comparison shows that Rice’s forward EV-to-EBITDA multiple of ~15.1x is at a premium compared to its close competitors.

In this part of the series, we’ll look at Rice Energy’s (RICE) cash flows. In 2Q16, Rice reported cash flow from operations (or CFO) of ~$76 million.

Rice Energy (RICE) stock was mostly declining in 2015. But with the recent rally in natural gas prices, the stock has been on an uptrend since February 2016.

In a presentation released in June 2016, Rice Energy (RICE) noted that its gross production was averaging 1 Bcf (billion cubic feet) per day with only 180 wells.

According to the EIA, Henry Hub natural gas spot prices averaged $2.82 per MMBtu in July, up $0.24 compared to the June average.

Since natural gas prices started improving in 2016, RICE stock has really stepped on the gas, rising a massive 138% year-to-date.

In its organizational structure, Rice Energy, through its GP Holdings subsidiary, and the public hold 35% and 65% limited partner interest, respectively, in Rice Midstream Partners.

Natural gas represented 99.6% of Rice Energy’s (RICE) total production in 2Q16. Its share as a percentage of RICE’s total production has mostly remained steady at almost 100%.

Chesapeake Energy’s (CHK) current implied volatility is 70%—about 13% lower than its 15-day average of 80.3%.

Chesapeake Energy’s (CHK) 2Q16 revenue decreased by ~43% YoY (year-over-year). Its YoY revenue growth was -26% in 2Q15 and -42.8% in 1Q16.

Cabot Oil and Gas’s (COG) current implied volatility is ~29.6%, ~8.3% lower than its 15-day average of 32.3%.

Natural gas–weighted stocks with high correlations to natural gas futures moved with natural gas. Stocks with low correlations weren’t impacted as much.

In this part of the series, we’ll continue looking at upstream companies that are part of the SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (XOP).

Between July 1 and July 11, 2016, an equally weighted basket of natural gas–weighted stocks fell 3.2%. These stocks operate with a production mix of at least 60% in natural gas.

The fall in energy ETFs started after the fall in oil prices on July 5, 2016, and when Brexit concerns and supply-related fears resurfaced.

The SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (XOP) underperformed other energy ETFs from June 23–30, 2016.

We’ll look at upstream companies that are part of XOP. We’ll discuss upstream companies that operate with a production mix of at least 60% natural gas.

Natural gas (DGAZ) (UGAZ) (BOIL) (GASL) (FCG) inventories rose by 82 Bcf (billion cubic feet) in the week ending May 27, 2016, over the previous week.