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Natural Gas Prices: What Could Impact Next Week?
On September 27, natural gas prices declined 1% and settled at $2.40 per MMBtu. The United States Natural Gas Fund LP (UNG) fell 2% on the same day.
Where Natural Gas Prices Could End Up Next Week
On September 12, natural gas prices rose 0.9% to $2.574 per MMBtu, and the EIA reported its natural gas inventories for the week that ended on September 6.
August 23 EIA Report: Will Natural Gas Prices Rise?
Henry Hub natural gas prices rose 2.79% after the EIA released its natural gas inventories for the week ended August 23. The EIA reported a rise of 60 Bcf.
What Do Natural Gas Fundamentals Suggest for 2H 2019?
For the rest of this year, Henry Hub natural gas spot prices will be at a mean price of 2.50 per million British thermal units.
Will Natural Gas Continue to Rise?
As of 3:42 AM ET on June 28, natural gas active futures were almost flat. Natural gas prices could close 6.5% higher than the previous week.
Natural Gas: Change in Inventories Could Boost Its Prospects
Any rise less than ~64 billion cubic feet could cause the inventories spread to expand more into the negative territory—a positive development for natural gas prices.
Rise in Natural Gas Production Might Not Be Avoided
Southwestern Energy and Gulfport Energy’s EPS will likely fall 51.8% and 18.2%, respectively, in the second quarter on a sequential basis based on analysts’ consensus estimates.
Will Natural Gas’s Trend Reverse?
On June 20, natural gas active futures fell 4.3% and settled at $2.166 per million British thermal units due to bearish inventory data. The natural gas active futures are at a new three-year low.
Will Natural Gas Continue to Fall?
On June 18, natural gas July futures fell 2.4% and settled at $2.33 per million British thermal units. On the same day, Chesapeake Energy (CHK) and Gulfport Energy (GPOR) rose 3.8% and 1.8%, respectively.
Oil Rigs Sounding Alarm for Natural Gas Supply this Summer
The natural gas rig count was at 186 last week, two more than the previous week. The natural gas rig count has fallen ~88.4% from its record level of 1,606 in 2008.
Will Rise in Natural Gas Prices Continue?
On June 11, natural gas July futures rose 1.8% and settled at $2.399 per MMBtu (million British thermal units).
Will Natural Gas Recover from Its Three-Year Low?
On June 4, the natural gas July futures rose 0.5% from the lowest closing level in three years and settled at $2.416 per MMBtu.
Will EIA Inventory Data Support Natural Gas Prices?
On May 30, the EIA is scheduled to release its natural gas inventory report for the week ending May 24.
Is the Fall In Oil Rig Count Reducing Natural Gas Supplies?
The natural gas rig count was at 186 last week. The natural gas rig count has fallen ~88.4% from its record level of 1,606 in 2008.
Natural Gas Prices: The Key Drivers
On May 28, natural gas July futures fell 1% and settled at $2.58 per MMBtu (million British thermal units).
Are Natural Gas–Weighted Stocks Avoiding Energy Commodities?
Except for Gulfport Energy and Chesapeake Energy, the remaining natural gas–weighted stocks had negative correlations with US crude oil prices.
Oil Rig at One-Year Low, Might Benefit Gas-Weighted Stocks
The natural gas rig count was at 185 last week. The natural gas rig count has fallen ~88.5% from its record level of 1,606 in 2008.
Natural Gas: Dullest May Month since 2014
On May 21, natural gas June futures fell 2.2% and settled at $2.61 per MMBtu—4.9% above the lowest closing level since June 6, 2016.
What Could Impact Natural Gas This Week?
At 7:15 AM EST on May 20, the natural gas active futures have risen more than 2%. US crude oil is trading 0.4% higher than the closing level last week.
Oil Rigs Impact Natural Gas and Energy Stocks
The natural gas rig count was at 183 last week. The natural gas rig count has fallen ~88.6% from its record level of 1,606 in 2008.
What Could Impact Natural Gas This Week?
Between May 3 and May 10, natural gas active futures rose 2%.
Top Energy Gainers Last Week
Laredo Petroleum (LPI) and Gulfport Energy (GPOR) were the second and fifth-largest gainers among energy stocks last week.
Higher Inventories Might Support Natural Gas
On April 18, the EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) is scheduled to release its natural gas inventory report for the week ending April 12.
What to Expect from Natural Gas Inventories This Week
On March 14, the EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) is scheduled to release its natural gas inventory report for the week ending March 8.
EIA Inventory Data Pushed Natural Gas Slightly
Today, the EIA released its natural gas inventory data for the week ended February 22. It reported a decline of 166 Bcf (billion cubic feet) in natural gas inventories.
Natural Gas Fell, Impacted Natural Gas ETFs
On January 25–February 1, the United States Natural Gas ETF (UNG) fell 10.8%, while the ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Natural Gas ETF (BOIL) fell 20.8%.
Comparing Natural Gas ETFs’ Performances to Natural Gas Prices
Between January 18 and January 25, the United States Natural Gas ETF fell 3.6%, while the ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Natural Gas ETF fell 8.1%.
Analyzing Natural Gas ETFs’ Performances Last Week
Between January 11 and January 18, the United States Natural Gas ETF (UNG) rose 8.9%, while the ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Natural Gas ETF (BOIL) rose 13.5%.
Gulfport Energy: Top Outperformer in the Upstream Space
On January 11–18, Gulfport Energy (GPOR) gained the most on our list of upstream energy stocks from XOP.
Which Natural Gas–Weighted Stocks Are Aligned with Oil Prices?
Gulfport Energy (GPOR) and Chesapeake Energy (CHK) had correlations of 89.5% and 72.4%, respectively, with US crude oil prices.
Why EIA Data Might Not Satisfy Natural Gas Bulls
In the week ending on December 28, the inventories spread was -17.2%.
Analyzing Natural Gas ETFs’ Performance Last Week
Between December 28 and January 4, the United States Natural Gas ETF (UNG) fell 8.4%, while the ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Natural Gas ETF (BOIL) fell 17.4%.
Futures Spread: Natural Gas Prices Might Be in Trouble
On December 31, the natural gas futures for February 2019 closed at a discount of ~$0.06 to the February 2020 futures.
Analyzing Natural Gas ETFs Last Week
On December 21–28, the United States Natural Gas ETF (UNG) fell 9.4%, while the ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Natural Gas ETF (BOIL) fell 17.5%.
Why Temperature Forecasts Aren’t Boosting Natural Gas Prices
From December 19 to 26, natural gas February futures fell 5.3% and settled at $3.458 per MMBtu (million British thermal units).
Analyzing the Futures Spread and Natural Gas Prices
On December 24, the natural gas futures for February 2019 closed at a premium of ~$0.35 to the February 2020 futures.
Natural Gas: What Might Be the Downside Next Week?
On December 20, natural gas’s implied volatility was ~75%, which was ~9.1% below its 15-day moving average.
Analyzing the Natural Gas Futures Spread
On December 18, the natural gas futures for January 2019 closed at a premium of ~$0.7 to the January 2020 futures.
JPMorgan Was Cautious on These Upstream Stocks Last Week
On December 7, JPMorgan Chase (JPM) cut Chesapeake Energy (CHK) from a “neutral” to an “underweight” rating.
Top Energy Gainers Last Week
On November 30–December 7, Gulfport Energy (GPOR) gained the most on our list of upstream energy stocks.
Analyzing Natural Gas ETFs’ Returns Last Week
On November 23–30, the United States Natural Gas ETF (UNG) rose 2.6%, while the ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Natural Gas ETF (BOIL) rose 5%.
Is Oil Offsetting Natural Gas’s Impact on Gas-Weighted Stocks?
On November 7–14, our list of natural gas–weighted stocks fell 3.7% despite a rise of 36.1% in natural gas December futures.
Natural Gas’s Whopping Upside: Gas ETFs React
On November 2–9, the United States Natural Gas ETF (UNG) rose 13%, while the ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Natural Gas ETF (BOIL) rose 25%.
Weather Forecast Could Push Natural Gas to Its 2018 High
On November 8, natural gas’s implied volatility was 47.4%, which was ~10.7% above its 15-day moving average.
Did Natural Gas ETFs Underperform Natural Gas’s Rise Last Week?
On October 26–November 2, UNG rose 1.5%, while BOIL rose 0.3%. These ETFs track natural gas futures.
Oil Is Steering Natural Gas–Weighted Stocks’ Returns
On October 10–17, our list of natural gas–weighted stocks fell 0.3%, while natural gas November futures rose 1.1%.
Futures Spread: Less Bullish Sentiments for Natural Gas
On October 16, the natural gas futures for November closed at a premium of ~$0.42 to the November 2019 futures.
Natural Gas’s Rise: Which Gas-Weighted Stocks to Watch
On October 10, natural gas November futures rose 0.6% and settled at $3.284 per MMBtu—the highest closing level since January 29.
Weakest Upstream Stocks in the Week Ending September 28
Southwestern Energy (SWN) was the weakest upstream stock in the week ending September 28. Southwestern Energy fell 10.8% last week.
Where Natural Gas Could End Next Week
Natural gas futures are expected to close between $2.74 and $2.90 per MMBtu (million British thermal units) 68.0% of the time until September 21.
Have Natural Gas ETFs Fallen More than Natural Gas?
Natural gas October futures fell 4.8% last week. BOIL underperformed natural gas futures and UNG during this period.
Here’s Why Upstream Underperformed the Energy Space
Between August 31 and September 7, upstream stock Southwestern Energy Company (SWN) fell the most on our list of energy stocks.
These Stocks Were the Weakest Upstream Performers Last Week
PVAC fell 16.3% last week amid weakness in crude oil and natural gas prices.
Analyzing Natural Gas ETFs’ Performance Last Week
On August 24–31, the United States Natural Gas ETF (UNG) and the ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Natural Gas ETF (BOIL) had returns of 0.3% and -0.3%.
Why Natural Gas Inventories Could Dismay Natural Gas Bulls
Since August 23, natural gas October futures have fallen 3.7%.
US Natural Gas Price Drivers on August 6–10
US natural gas futures increased 1.3% to $2.81 per MMBtu (million British thermal units) on July 26–August 2.
Why OPEC’s Crude Oil Production Rose in July
On July 30, a Reuters survey showed that OPEC’s crude oil production increased by 70,000 bpd (barrels per day) to 32.64 MMbpd in July.
Are Hedge Funds Reducing Bullish Bets on US Natural Gas?
Hedge funds cut their net long positions in US natural gas futures and options 44.8% to 24,984 on July 17–24.
Will NYMEX Natural Gas Cross $2.8 Next Week?
On July 26, 2018, natural gas’s implied volatility was 19.5%, ~2.5% below its 15-day moving average.
Record US Natural Gas Production Kept a Lid on the Prices
PointLogic estimates that US dry natural gas production increased 0.5% to 81 Bcf (billion cubic feet) per day on July 19–25.
Natural Gas’s Recovery Could Boost Natural Gas–Weighted Stocks
On July 25, natural gas September futures rose 1.3% and settled at ~$2.76 per MMBtu (million British thermal units).
US Natural Gas Consumption Could Rise Next Week
PointLogic estimates that US dry natural gas consumption increased 4.5% to 65.3 Bcf (billion cubic feet) per day on July 12–18.
How Does US Natural Gas Production Impact Prices?
PointLogic estimates that US dry natural gas production fell 0.7% to 80 Bcf per day on July 12–18. However, the production has risen 11% YoY.
Has Natural Gas Outperformed Natural Gas–Weighted Stocks?
Between July 11 and July 18, our list of natural gas–weighted stocks fell 4.2%, while natural gas August futures fell 3.8%.
Are Oversupply Concerns Worrying Natural Gas Traders?
On July 17, natural gas August 2018 futures closed at a premium of ~$0.11 to August 2019 futures, compared with ~$0.12 on July 10.
Calm Down! Oil Prices Could Stay Range Bound
On July 6–13, US crude oil August futures fell 3.8%. However, US crude oil prices gained 1% and closed at $71.01 per barrel on July 13.
Iran Running Out of Options: Could Oil Spike?
From June 29 to July 6, US crude oil August futures fell 0.5%. On July 6, US crude oil August futures settled at $73.80 per barrel.
Decoding US Natural Gas Inventories from June 22 to 29
On July 6, the EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) released its natural gas storage report.
Are Natural Gas-Weighted Stocks Reacting to Higher Oil Prices?
Between June 26 and July 3, our list of natural gas–weighted stocks rose 1.1%, while natural gas August futures fell 2.1%.
Analyzing Hedge Funds’ Positions in US Natural Gas
Hedge funds reduced their net bullish positions in US natural gas futures and options 11.3% to 165,768 on June 19–26.
Cabot Oil & Gas’s Marcellus Position: Differentials and Economics
Cabot Oil & Gas’s EUR per 1,000 feet of lateral is 4.4 Bcfe—compared to the peer average of 2.17 Bcfe per 1,000 feet of lateral.
Analyzing Wall Street’s Targets for GPOR, KOS, IO, and BAS
To conclude our series on the biggest movers in the upstream and oilfield service sectors, we’ll now look at Wall Street’s recommendations for this week’s strongest and weakest stocks.
Upstream Gainers This Week: Gulfport Energy Leads
As of June 26, Gulfport Energy (GPOR) had risen ~6.9% from last week’s close of $11.62 to $12.42, above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages of $10.31 and $11.59, respectively.
Why US Crude Oil Prices May Consolidate after OPEC Meeting
Between June 15 and June 22, US crude oil August futures rose 5.8%. The gains were mainly due to the OPEC meeting on June 22.
Did Natural Gas Prices Impact SWN Stock Last Week?
During the week ended June 15, Southwestern Energy (SWN) stock had a correlation of 34.0% with natural gas.
EIA Upgrades US Natural Gas Production Forecasts for 2018, 2019
Pointlogic, a market intelligence company, estimates that US dry natural gas production increased 0.3% to 79.8 Bcf (billion cubic feet) per day from June 7 to June 13.
How Natural Gas ETFs Reacted to Natural Gas Decline Last Week
Last week, Gulfport Energy (GPOR) and Range Resources (RRC) fell 9.7% and 2%, respectively.
Why Are Natural Gas Prices Struggling?
On June 5, natural gas July futures fell 1.4% and settled at $2.89 per MMBtu. Southwestern Energy and Gulfport Energy fell 1.9% and 1%, respectively.
Have Natural Gas ETFs Outperformed Natural Gas?
From March 3, 2016, to June 1, natural gas active futures rose 80.7% from their 17-year low.
Upstream Companies with the Lowest EBITDA Multiples
As of the first quarter, Sandridge Energy’s (SD) EV-to-adjusted EBITDA ratio was ~2.77x. The company has a market capitalization of $529.83 million.
Did Gas-Weighted Stocks Miss Natural Gas’s 4-Month High?
On May 23, natural gas July futures rose 0.6% and closed at $2.96 per MMBtu—the highest close for natural gas active futures since January 31.
Important Price Points for Natural Gas Traders Next Week
On May 17, natural gas’s implied volatility was 20.6%, 0.5% higher than its 15-day moving average.
Top Energy Gainers Last Week
On May 4–11, upstream stock Carrizo Oil & Gas was the top gainer on our list of energy stocks. During this period, XOP rose 4.2%.
Analyzing Natural Gas’s Supply Concerns
On May 8, natural gas June 2018 futures closed at a premium of ~$0.19 to June 2019 futures. The difference is called the “futures spread.”
Change in Inventory Levels Might Support Natural Gas Prices
In the week ending April 27, natural gas inventories rose by 62 Bcf to 1,343 Bcf—based on the EIA’s data announced on May 3.
Natural Gas–Weighted Stocks Inversely Related to Oil
Except Gulfport Energy (GPOR), the remaining energy stocks had negative correlations with US crude oil June futures on April 25–May 2.
Higher Inventories Might Support Natural Gas Prices
In the week ending April 20, natural gas inventories declined by 18 Bcf (billion cubic feet) to 1,281 Bcf—based on the EIA’s data announced on April 26.
Could Oil’s Moves Influence Natural Gas–Weighted Stocks?
Range Resources and Antero Resources had the highest negative correlations with natural gas June futures over the past five trading sessions.
Natural Gas Inventory: Analyzing the Expectations
In the week ending April 13, natural gas inventories declined by 36 Bcf to 1,299 Bcf—based on the EIA’s data announced on April 19.
Institutional Investor Activity in XOG, GPOR, CHK, and QEP
In 4Q17, 90 funds were “buyers” of Extraction Oil & Gas (XOG) stock, while 46 funds were “sellers” of the stock.
Wall Street Analysts’ Targets for XOG, GPOR, HK, CHK, and QEP
Five analysts gave a “strong buy,” seven analysts gave a “buy,” and three analysts gave a “hold” recommendation on Extraction Oil & Gas.
Gulfport Energy: Poor Normalized Free Cash Flow in 2017
In 2017, Gulfport Energy reported a negative FCF of -$1.8 billion—317% higher compared to Gulfport Energy’s FCF of -$420 million in 2016.
Extraction Oil & Gas: Lowest Normalized Free Cash Flow
For fiscal 2017, Extraction Oil & Gas reported a negative FCF of -$1.1 billion, which is much larger than its negative FCF of -$760 million in 2016.
Upstream Companies with the Lowest Free Cash Flow 2017
Extraction Oil & Gas had a normalized 2017 FCF of -345%—followed by Gulfport Energy, Halcon Resources, Chesapeake Energy, and QEP Resources.
Upstream Losses: NOG, TELL, GPOR, EPE, and REN
In the week starting on March 19, 2018, Northern Oil & Gas (NOG) decreased from $2.09 to $1.86—a significant decrease of ~11.0%.
EQT’s New Midstream Company: 3rd-Largest Natural Gas Gatherer in the US
EQT expects its midstream cash flows to double over the next three years, with $350 million expected in 2018.
Energy Stocks Bucked Bearish Equity and Oil Markets
On February 23–March 2, 2018, upstream stock Southwestern Energy (SWN) was the largest gainer on our list of energy stocks.
Some Energy Stocks Rose More than Oil Last Week
On February 21, Whiting Petroleum announced its 4Q17 earnings results. Whiting Petroleum reported an adjusted net loss of $0.17 per diluted share.
Smaller Withdrawal in Natural Gas Inventories Pressures Prices
US natural gas inventories fell by 99 Bcf (billion cubic feet) or 4.4% to 2,197 Bcf on January 19–26, 2018, according to the EIA.
Upstream Losers: PE, GPOR, CRC, SWN, and SN
In the week starting January 29, 2018, Parsley Energy (PE) decreased from $28.73 to $24.07—a significant decrease of ~16.2%.