Gulfport Energy Corp

Issuance slowed to a trickle when market conditions were unfavorable in August. A number of transactions were either postponed, re-priced, or withdrawn from the market altogether. There was an increase in high-yield debt risk perceptions.

In its March report, the EIA stated that the US natural gas supply-demand gap could average 2.89 Bcf per day in 2016 and rise to 4.05 Bcf per day in 2017.

The key support level for natural gas is seen at $2.50 per MMBtu. Prices hit this mark multiple times in April 2015. Resistance is seen at $2.75 per MMBtu.

September natural gas futures contracts rose for the third day in a row. Natural gas prices have been trading close to the key resistance of $2.90 per MMBtu.

Currently, ~10.0% of Wall Street analysts rate Southwestern Energy (SWN) a “strong buy,” 10.0% rate it a “buy,” and 65.0% rate it a “hold.”

The long-term oversupply concerns could drag natural gas prices lower. The key support for natural gas prices is seen at $2.60 per MMBtu.

Between May 15 and May 22, 2017, natural gas June futures fell 0.6%. During that same period, an equally weighted selection of natural gas–weighted stocks fell 1.5%.

On December 21–28, the United States Natural Gas ETF (UNG) fell 9.4%, while the ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Natural Gas ETF (BOIL) fell 17.5%.

Between January 18 and January 25, the United States Natural Gas ETF fell 3.6%, while the ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Natural Gas ETF fell 8.1%.

Hedge funds reduced their net bullish positions on US natural gas futures and options contracts by 2,511 contracts to 81,683 on August 15–22, 2017.

The natural gas rig count rose by four to 187 in the week ended September 8, 2017. On a YoY basis, the natural gas rig count more than doubled that week.

On July 26, 2018, natural gas’s implied volatility was 19.5%, ~2.5% below its 15-day moving average.

NYMEX-traded natural gas for May increased by 1.54% on April 21, 2015. Prices increased due to cold weather estimates. This could increase the demand for natural gas.

Range Resources and Antero Resources had the highest negative correlations with natural gas June futures over the past five trading sessions.

PointLogic estimates that US dry natural gas production fell 0.7% to 80 Bcf per day on July 12–18. However, the production has risen 11% YoY.

On March 3, 2016, natural gas futures touched a 17-year low. From March 3, 2016, to March 13, 2017, natural gas rose 85.4% on a closing price basis.

On November 8, natural gas’s implied volatility was 47.4%, which was ~10.7% above its 15-day moving average.

Hedge funds cut their net long positions in US natural gas futures and options 44.8% to 24,984 on July 17–24.

Between March 20, 2017, and March 27, 2017, natural gas futures contracts for May 2017 rose 1%. The commodity saw the small gain due to slightly bullish inventory data.

WPX Energy had the lowest correlation with natural gas prices in the past five trading sessions. Southwestern Energy had among the highest correlations.

In the week ending on December 28, the inventories spread was -17.2%.

Aegent Energy Advisors estimates that US natural gas prices are expected to trade below $3.27 per MMBtu this winter from November 2016 to March 2017.

On November 23–30, the United States Natural Gas ETF (UNG) rose 2.6%, while the ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Natural Gas ETF (BOIL) rose 5%.

November natural gas futures contracts are following their long-term downward trend. Prices are trading close to the key support of $2 per MMBtu.

On December 29, the natural gas rig count was 88.7% below its record high of 1,606 in 2008. However, natural gas supplies have risen drastically since 2008.

US crude oil production  According to the EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration), US crude oil production rose 13,000 bpd (barrels per day) to 9,658,000 bpd between November 10 and 17, 2017. Production, which rose for the fifth straight week, has been pressuring oil (SCO) prices in the last few weeks. Production has risen 977,000 bpd (11.3%) year-over-year. Any […]

The natural gas rig count was at 186 last week. The natural gas rig count has fallen ~88.4% from its record level of 1,606 in 2008.

On December 24, the natural gas futures for February 2019 closed at a premium of ~$0.35 to the February 2020 futures.

Lower natural gas prices, demand from power plants, and warm weather could support natural gas prices. The next resistance is seen at $3 per MMBtu.

On March 3, 2016, natural gas futures touched a 17-year low of $1.64. From March 3, 2016, to March 6, 2017, natural gas rose 76.8% on a closing price basis.

On December 31, the natural gas futures for February 2019 closed at a discount of ~$0.06 to the February 2020 futures.

Hedge funds decreased their net long positions in US natural gas futures and options contracts to a nine-week low for the week ending November 8, 2016.

Between May 19 and May 26, 2017, natural gas (UNG) July futures fell 1.3% and settled at $3.31 per million British thermal units on May 26.

On June 4, the natural gas July futures rose 0.5% from the lowest closing level in three years and settled at $2.416 per MMBtu.

Southwestern Energy (SWN) was the weakest upstream stock in the week ending September 28. Southwestern Energy fell 10.8% last week.

Long-term bearish momentum is dragging natural gas prices to record lows. All the fundamental drivers are supporting the bearish traders.

Pointlogic, a market intelligence company, estimates that US dry natural gas production increased 0.3% to 79.8 Bcf (billion cubic feet) per day from June 7 to June 13.

Between March 3, 2016, and November 6, 2017, natural gas active futures rose 91.2% from their 17-year low.

Natural gas futures are expected to close between $2.74 and $2.90 per MMBtu (million British thermal units) 68.0% of the time until September 21.

From June 29 to July 6, US crude oil August futures fell 0.5%. On July 6, US crude oil August futures settled at $73.80 per barrel.

As of the first quarter, Sandridge Energy’s (SD) EV-to-adjusted EBITDA ratio was ~2.77x. The company has a market capitalization of $529.83 million.

Between August 31 and September 7, upstream stock Southwestern Energy Company (SWN) fell the most on our list of energy stocks.

In the week ending September 1, 2017, the natural gas rig count rose by three to 183. On a YoY basis, the natural gas rig count has more than doubled.

On November 2–9, the United States Natural Gas ETF (UNG) rose 13%, while the ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Natural Gas ETF (BOIL) rose 25%.

Gulfport Energy (GPOR) and Chesapeake Energy (CHK) had correlations of 89.5% and 72.4%, respectively, with US crude oil prices.

On July 30, a Reuters survey showed that OPEC’s crude oil production increased by 70,000 bpd (barrels per day) to 32.64 MMbpd in July.

On October 26–November 2, UNG rose 1.5%, while BOIL rose 0.3%. These ETFs track natural gas futures.

On January 25–February 1, the United States Natural Gas ETF (UNG) fell 10.8%, while the ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Natural Gas ETF (BOIL) fell 20.8%.

Aegent Energy Advisors predicts that US natural gas prices might not exceed $3.18 per MMBtu by December 2017.

The EIA forecast that the US natural gas supply and demand gap will be 4.1 Bcf per day in 2016 and 4.4 Bcf per day in 2017.

Between June 15 and June 22, US crude oil August futures rose 5.8%. The gains were mainly due to the OPEC meeting on June 22.

On October 16, the natural gas futures for November closed at a premium of ~$0.42 to the November 2019 futures.

The EIA estimates that US natural gas prices could average $3.55 per MMBtu in 2017 and $3.73 per MMBtu in 2018. Prices averaged $2.51 per MMBtu in 2016.

Hedge funds reduced their net bullish positions in US natural gas futures and options 11.3% to 165,768 on June 19–26.

Between September 25 and October 2, 2017, our list of natural-gas-weighted stocks rose 1.3% compared to a 2.4% fall in natural gas (FCG) (BOIL) November futures.

The consensus of rising natural gas inventory could push natural gas prices lower than the key resistance of $2.30 MMBtu.

From February 17–27, 2017, natural gas futures contracts for April 2017 delivery fell 8.8%. On March 3, 2016, natural gas futures touched a 17-year low.

On May 28, natural gas July futures fell 1% and settled at $2.58 per MMBtu (million British thermal units).

On July 31, 2017, natural gas (UNG) (BOIL) (FCG) September futures closed at $2.79 per MMBtu—5% below their close on July 30.

Crude oil’s (USO) (OIIL) implied volatility was 41.3% on July 8, 2016.

The EIA will publish the weekly natural gas in storage report on June 11. US commercial natural gas inventories rose by 132 Bcf for the week ending May 29.

Between March 3, 2016, and May 2, 2018, natural gas active futures rose 68% from their 17-year low.

Following Cabot Oil and Gas’s (COG) 1Q16 earnings, Wall Street analysts updated their target prices for the company for the next 12 months.

As of February 3, 2017, 40 analysts have provided recommendations on SWN, including four “buys” and 28 “holds.”

On March 3, 2016, natural gas futures touched a 17-year low of $1.64. From March 3 to December 19, 2016, natural gas rose 106.7% on a closing price basis.

On September 27, natural gas prices declined 1% and settled at $2.40 per MMBtu. The United States Natural Gas Fund LP (UNG) fell 2% on the same day.

On September 12, natural gas prices rose 0.9% to $2.574 per MMBtu, and the EIA reported its natural gas inventories for the week that ended on September 6.

Henry Hub natural gas prices rose 2.79% after the EIA released its natural gas inventories for the week ended August 23. The EIA reported a rise of 60 Bcf.

For the rest of this year, Henry Hub natural gas spot prices will be at a mean price of 2.50 per million British thermal units.

On June 20, natural gas active futures fell 4.3% and settled at $2.166 per million British thermal units due to bearish inventory data. The natural gas active futures are at a new three-year low.

On May 21, natural gas June futures fell 2.2% and settled at $2.61 per MMBtu—4.9% above the lowest closing level since June 6, 2016.

On January 11–18, Gulfport Energy (GPOR) gained the most on our list of upstream energy stocks from XOP.

On November 7–14, our list of natural gas–weighted stocks fell 3.7% despite a rise of 36.1% in natural gas December futures.

PVAC fell 16.3% last week amid weakness in crude oil and natural gas prices.

Since August 23, natural gas October futures have fallen 3.7%.

PointLogic estimates that US dry natural gas production increased 0.5% to 81 Bcf (billion cubic feet) per day on July 19–25.

On July 6, the EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) released its natural gas storage report.

Between June 26 and July 3, our list of natural gas–weighted stocks rose 1.1%, while natural gas August futures fell 2.1%.

Cabot Oil & Gas’s EUR per 1,000 feet of lateral is 4.4 Bcfe—compared to the peer average of 2.17 Bcfe per 1,000 feet of lateral.

To conclude our series on the biggest movers in the upstream and oilfield service sectors, we’ll now look at Wall Street’s recommendations for this week’s strongest and weakest stocks.

As of June 26, Gulfport Energy (GPOR) had risen ~6.9% from last week’s close of $11.62 to $12.42, above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages of $10.31 and $11.59, respectively.

For fiscal 2017, Extraction Oil & Gas reported a negative FCF of -$1.1 billion, which is much larger than its negative FCF of -$760 million in 2016.

In the week starting on March 19, 2018, Northern Oil & Gas (NOG) decreased from $2.09 to $1.86—a significant decrease of ~11.0%.

On February 21, Whiting Petroleum announced its 4Q17 earnings results. Whiting Petroleum reported an adjusted net loss of $0.17 per diluted share.

In 4Q17, 135 funds were buyers of CNX Resources (CNX) stock, and 112 funds were sellers.

In the week starting January 29, 2018, Parsley Energy (PE) decreased from $28.73 to $24.07—a significant decrease of ~16.2%.

Oil prices are important for natural gas supplies. Oil can impact the market sentiment across other markets like gas and equities as well.

A larger-than-expected withdrawal in US natural gas inventories compared to historical averages would help natural gas prices this week.

For 9M17 (the first nine months of 2017), Gulfport Energy (GPOR) had normalized FCF (free cash flow) of -336%, the fourth lowest among the upstream producers we have been tracking.

According to a report released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration in December, natural gas production in the Appalachian region has increased rapidly since 2012.

US dry natural gas production was flat at 76.1 Bcf (billion cubic feet) per day on December 7–13, 2017, according to PointLogic.

US dry natural gas production fell by 0.5 Bcf per day or 0.7% to 76.2 Bcf per day on November 30–December 6, 2017, according to PointLogic.

Antero Resources (AR) and Gulfport Energy (GPOR) are among the natural gas–weighted stocks that had the highest correlations with natural gas prices in the trailing week.

US natural gas consumption rose by 8.1 Bcf (billion cubic feet) per day to 64.5 Bcf per day on October 26–November 1, 2017.

Baker Hughes is scheduled to release its weekly US oil and gas rig report on October 27, 2017.

November US natural gas (UNG)(GASL) futures were above their 20-day moving averages of $2.99 per MMBtu on October 13.

US dry natural gas production rose by 3 Bcf (billion cubic feet) per day to 75.9 Bcf per day in July 2017—compared with the previous month.

The EIA estimates that monthly US natural gas consumption rose by 0.11 Bcf per day or 0.2% to 62.77 Bcf per day in June 2017—compared to May 2017.

The EIA reported that US natural gas inventories rose by 30 Bcf (billion cubic feet) to 3,155 Bcf on August 18–25, 2017.

Hurricane Harvey hit the Gulf Coast region on August 26, 2017. It’s estimated to be one of the biggest hurricanes to hit the US in the last 50 years.