A Look at Apple’s Historical and Expected Revenue Growth

Previously, we learned that analysts expect Apple’s (AAPL) revenues to rise ~15.5% YoY (year-over-year) in fiscal 2Q18. The company’s EPS (earnings per share) are expected to rise ~28.0% in the quarter. Analysts expect Apple’s revenues to rise 14.8% YoY to ~$52.1 billion in fiscal 3Q18 and 13.2% YoY to $59.5 billion in fiscal 4Q18. 

This indicates that Apple’s revenues could rise more than 14.0% YoY to $261.5 billion in fiscal 2018. Analysts expect the firm’s revenues to rise 3.7% YoY to $271.4 billion in fiscal 2019 and ~3.0% to $279.6 billion in fiscal 2020.

Apple’s non-GAAP (generally accepted accounting principles) earnings per share are expected to rise 31.0% to $2.18 in 3Q18, 24.0% to $2.64 in 4Q18, and ~24.0% to $11.43 in fiscal 2018. Its earnings per share are expected to rise ~14.0% to $13.08 in fiscal 2019. A rise in revenues during the next two fiscal years could result in an increase in profit margins as well. 

Analysts expect peers HP (HPQ), Western Digital (WDC), Google (GOOG), and Amazon (AMZN) to see their revenues rise 8.7%, 7.5%, 20.7%, and 31.3%, respectively, in fiscal 2018.

Apple’s profit margin rose more quickly than its revenue growth in fiscal 2017. Apple’s earnings per share are expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (or CAGR) of 20.5% over the next five years, compared with 44.6% in the last five years.

In fiscal 2016, Apple reported EBITDA[1. earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization] of ~$70.5 billion, a fall of 14.5%, while its operating profit fell 16.0% to $60.0 billion. In fiscal 2017, its EBITDA saw a marginal rise of 1.4% while its operating profit rose ~2.0%.

Analysts expect Apple’s EBITDA to rise 12.0% in fiscal 2018, 4.0% in fiscal 2019, and 4.0% in fiscal 2020. Apple’s operating profit is expected to rise 13.0% in fiscal 2018, 3.6% in fiscal 2019, and 4.0% in fiscal 2020.