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Comparing Revenue Growth Trends for AMRN and IOVA

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Revenue guidance

In its first-quarter earnings conference call, Amarin (AMRN) reiterated its fiscal 2019 net revenue guidance of $350 million, which represents a YoY rise of more than 50%. The company has not assumed FDA approval for Vascepa’s expanded label based on REDUCE-IT trial results in its fiscal 2019 revenue guidance. According to Amarin’s first-quarter earnings investor presentation, Vascepa’s current approved label allows its use to treat patients with triglyceride levels greater than or equal to 500mg/dL.

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In the first quarter, Amarin reported revenues of $73.28 million, a YoY rise of 66.85% and ahead of the consensus estimate by $5.98 million. The company, however, has reported significant revenue variability in previous quarters. Additionally, the first quarter was the lowest revenue quarter in fiscal 2018. In this context, the company has not revised upwards its fiscal 2019 revenue guidance despite a solid performance in the first quarter.

On May 15, a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, Iovance Biotherapeutics (IOVA) issued a press release announcing favorable updates from two ongoing clinical trials, innovaTIL-04 study and innovaTIL-01 study, which are evaluating investigational TIL (tumor infiltrating lymphocyte) therapies in solid tumor indications. After the press release, the company’s stock price rose by 36.06% and closed at $15.28 on May 16.

Wall Street estimates

Analysts expect Amarin’s revenues to change YoY by 58.96% to $364.35 million in fiscal 2019, 57.45% to $573.68 million in fiscal 2020, and 51.07% to $866.63 million in fiscal 2021. On the other hand, analysts expect Iovance Biotherapeutics’ revenues to be $13.94 million in fiscal 2020 and $63.06 million in fiscal 2021.

Analysts expect Amarin’s revenues to change YoY by 67.73% to $88.30 million in the second quarter, 72.40% to $95.38 million in the third quarter, and 38.95% to $107.45 million in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2019. Analysts don’t expect any revenues from Iovance Biotherapeutics in fiscal 2019.

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