Could US Crude Oil Fall More?

On May 31, US crude oil July futures fell 1.7% and closed at $67.04 per barrel. That day, the United States Oil ETF (USO) fell 2%.

Rabindra Samanta - Author

Nov. 20 2020, Updated 2:01 p.m. ET

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US crude oil

On May 31, US crude oil July futures fell 1.7% and closed at $67.04 per barrel. That same day, the United States Oil ETF (USO) fell 2%.

On May 31, Concho Resources (CXO), RSP Permian (RSPP), and Callon Petroleum (CPE) fell 2.7%, 2.1%, and 2%, respectively. They fell the most on our list of oil-weighted stocks.

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Could US crude oil fall further?

From May 24–31, US crude oil July futures fell 5.2%. In that period, US crude oil active futures closed lower on most of the trading days. A mix of political, economic, and trade fears have pushed the dollar index higher, pressuring commodities such as oil.

Market concerns over a possible uptick in the global oil supply is another bearish factor for oil prices.

EIA data

The EIA’s (U.S. Energy Information Administration) inventory data on May 31 might have limited the downside of US crude oil prices. In the week ended May 25, US crude oil inventories declined 3.6 MMbbls (million barrels) compared to a decline of 0.6 MMbbls based on the S&P Global Platts survey.

Natural gas

On May 31, natural gas July futures rose 2.3% and settled at $2.95 per million British thermal units. That same day, the EIA reported a rise of 96 Bcf (billion cubic feet) in natural gas inventories for the week ended May 25. At 1,725 Bcf, inventory levels were 31.4% lower year-over-year. That might have supported natural gas prices in the last trading session.

In the trailing week, natural gas July futures fell 0.6%. The United States Natural Gas ETF (UNG) fell 0.5% during that same period. Milder weather forecasts may be behind natural gas’s fall in the past four trading sessions.


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