Devon Energy’s 4Q17 Earnings Estimates: Reading the Odds



DVN’s odds of beating the earnings estimates 

For the past four quarters, Devon Energy (DVN) has beaten the analysts’ consensus EPS (earnings per share) estimate every time—in 4Q16, 1Q17, 2Q17, and 3Q17. This means that DVN has beaten the analyst consensus EPS estimate 100% of the time for one year.

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What was DVN’s stock price reaction to 3Q17 earnings?

Devon Energy announced its 3Q17 earnings on October 31, 2017, after the market closed. In 3Q17, Devon Energy reported revenues of ~$3.30 billion, which was higher than the Wall Street analyst consensus of ~$3.17 billion. DVN’s stock beat the EPS estimate by $0.08 in 3Q17. DVN reported an adjusted profit of $0.46 per share, whereas the Wall Street analyst consensus was for a profit of $0.38 per share.

After the earnings release, its better-than-expected earnings saw Devon Energy’s stock price rise from $36.84 to $41.20 in five trading sessions.

Since its 3Q17 earnings, Devon Energy underperformed the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE), which represents an index of stocks across the energy sector. Since Devon Energy’s 3Q17 earnings, DVN has fallen ~3%, whereas XLE has risen close to half a percentage point.

In 2017, DVN underperformed XLE, falling ~9% while XLE fell only ~3%. (For more on the best and worst upstream stock performers from XLE in 2017, check out Market Realist’s series The Best and Worst Energy Stocks of XLE in 2017.)

Other oil and gas producers

Over the past four quarters, other upstream players like ConocoPhillips (COP), Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD), and Murphy Oil (MUR) have beaten their earnings expectations ~75%, ~100%, and ~75% of the time, respectively.

Continue to the next and final part of this series for a look at the analyst recommendations for Devon Energy and its peers.


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