As the euphoria over Donald Trump’s election win subsides, the market’s attention has shifted to other upcoming events. OPEC’s (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) annual meeting, for example, will be held in Vienna on November 30, 2016. OPEC’s Algeria meeting in September raised hopes of a production cut deal and boosted market sentiments, giving way to a rise in risk assets. OPEC’s November meeting will likely bring more clarity as to how individual OPEC countries plan to make production cuts.
Meanwhile, the case for a December rate hike keeps building, according to recent statements from US Fed Chair Janet Yellen. After the post-election rally, OPEC’s meeting and the Fed’s action appear to be the key near-term market drivers.
Commodities have rallied
Copper has been on a losing streak for the past five years, but after the recent US election results, commodities including copper started on a steep rally. Although copper has already pared some of its post-election gains, it’s still trading with decent monthly gains.
Copper producers (BHP) including Freeport-McMoRan (FCX), Teck Resources (TCK), and Southern Copper (SCCO) have also seen copper prices rise higher. Notably, Freeport finally managed to break free from its narrow price channel after the US election results.
Meanwhile, amid the post-election equity market rally, there are still concerns that Trump’s upcoming policies could trigger a trade war. In this series, we’ll explore what such a trade war could mean for the global copper industry (GNR). We’ll also be looking at recent indicators to understand the industry’s underlying fundamentals.
We’ll start by analyzing the recent trend in China’s copper demand.