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JetBlue: The Latest Analyst Estimates and Recommendations

Ally Schmidt - Author
By

Oct. 28 2016, Updated 8:04 a.m. ET

Analyst estimates for JetBlue

Following JetBlue’s 2Q16 earnings release, analysts’ consensus estimate for revenues remains unchanged. However, earnings estimates have declined. For 4Q16, sales are expected to grow 1.5% to $1.6 billion. EBITDA are expected to fall 10.5% to $377.5 billion versus an earlier expectation of 7.8% decline to $390 million. The consensus earnings per share (or EPS) are expected to fall 18% to $0.46 for 4Q16 versus the earlier estimate of a 14.4% decline to $0.48.

For 2016 as a whole, analysts estimate that sales will rise 3.1% to $6.6 billion—the same as the earlier estimate. EBITDA is expected to rise 7.5% to $1.7 billion. EPS are expected to rise ~9.5% to $2.12.

Analysts are expecting JetBlue’s sales to grow 6.6% for 2017 and 7% for 2018. However, EBITDA are expected to fall 6% for both 2017 and 2018. For 2017, analysts are expecting JetBlue EPS to fall 9% to $1.97. For 2018, EPS are expected to fall 2.6% to $1.92.

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Analyst recommendations

Of the 14 analysts rating the stock, 64.3% (nine analysts) have a “buy” rating, 35.7% (five analysts) have a “hold” rating, and none of the analysts have a “sell” rating.

JetBlue’s consensus 12-month target has fallen slightly to $22.17 as against the pre-earnings estate of $22.45. The current target price indicates a 22.7% return potential as of the October 25, 2016, closing price of $18.07. Analysts’ 12-month target prices for JBLU’s peers are as follows.

  • Delta Air Lines (DAL): $49.4 with a 19.9% return potential
  • Southwest Airlines (LUV): $48.92 with 16.6% return potential
  • Spirit Airlines (SAVE): $55.36 with 13.8% return potential
  • United Airlines (UAL): $61.36 with 12.3% return potential
  • Alaska Airlines (ALK): $85.8 with 18.5% return potential
  • American Airlines (AAL): $42 with 5.8% return potential

JBLU forms ~0.8% of the iShares S&P Mid-Cap 400 Growth ETF (IJK). Next, we wrap up this series by looking at JBLU’s valuation compared to peers.

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