Will Century Aluminum Post a Larger-Than-Expected Loss in 3Q15?
Analysts expect Century Aluminum (CENX) to post a loss when it releases its 3Q15 results on October 29, 2015. Earnings season for the aluminum industry has started on a dull note.
![Mohit Oberoi, CFA - Author](https://media.marketrealist.com/brand-img/pppqdpLpM/200x200/img_20191127_192656-mohit-oberoi-1595895293961.jpg)
Oct. 28 2015, Updated 9:10 a.m. ET
![uploads///part](https://media.marketrealist.com/brand-img/-7pjV-eDI/480x251/uploads/2015/10/part-261.png 480w, https://media.marketrealist.com/brand-img/-7pjV-eDI/640x335/uploads/2015/10/part-261.png 640w, https://media.marketrealist.com/brand-img/-7pjV-eDI/768x402/uploads/2015/10/part-261.png 768w, https://media.marketrealist.com/brand-img/-7pjV-eDI/1024x536/uploads/2015/10/part-261.png 1024w, https://media.marketrealist.com/brand-img/-7pjV-eDI/1280x670/uploads/2015/10/part-261.png 1280w, https://media.marketrealist.com/brand-img/-7pjV-eDI/1440x753/uploads/2015/10/part-261.png 1440w, https://media.marketrealist.com/brand-img/-7pjV-eDI/1600x837/uploads/2015/10/part-261.png 1600w, https://media.marketrealist.com/brand-img/-7pjV-eDI/2160x1130/uploads/2015/10/part-261.png 2160w)
Century Aluminum in 3Q15
Century Aluminum (CENX) is expected to release its 3Q15 financial results on October 29, 2015. Earnings season for the aluminum industry has started on a dull note, with industry leader Alcoa (AA) missing Wall Street estimates.
The markets punished Alcoa for its worse-than-expected earnings, sending its stock down 6.8% after the earnings release. Together, Alcoa and Ball Corporation (BLL) form ~4% of the Materials Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLB).
Volatility
Century Aluminum has generally been quite volatile in the earnings season. Its share price rose ~13% after its 1Q15 earnings release. However, the stock fell by a similar amount after CENX’s 4Q14 financial results.
Market reaction to Century Aluminum’s 2Q15 earnings was even more severe. CENX stock fell ~40% intraday after the company released its 2Q15 earnings. Century Aluminum reported a net loss of $33.9 million in 2Q15. In contrast, it posted net income of $73.8 million in 1Q15.
While analyzing Century Aluminum’s 2Q15 earnings, we noted that markets might be overreacting to the company’s earnings. The stock did bounce back more than 20% the next day.
Stock price has been weak
As we’ve already seen this year, any bounce-back in commodity (DBC) shares has been short-lived. The graph above shows the stock market performance of aluminum companies in 2015. Year-to-date, Century Aluminum has lost more than 80%, making it among the worst performing companies in this space.
Constellium NV (CSTM), a leading aluminum fabricator, is not far behind, losing more than 75% of its market capitalization this year.
Analysts expect Century Aluminum to post a loss in 3Q15. In the next part, we’ll explore analyst estimates and recommendations for Century Aluminum.