Glaukos Corp

Since the BDTI (Baltic Dirty Tanker Index) has fallen by 50% from the beginning of the year, crude tanker stock prices have also fallen.

August was the first time in 22 months that China has recorded a YoY increase in imports. Crude oil imports for China are now at a record high.

In many ways, China is the most important country for the crude oil tanker industry. In this series, we’ll take a close look at China’s March 2017 import-export data and manufacturing sector performance.

In February 2018, China’s manufacturing PMI (purchasing managers’ index) was 50.3.

Crude oil production has gradually fallen since the beginning of 2016, especially on the non-OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) side.

In week 44, many of the crude tanker stocks traded in the red. Only Frontline and Navios Maritime Midstream Partners traded in the green.

Gener8 Maritime Partners’ YTD returns were -10% as of April 5, 2018. Gener8 Maritime Partners is the fourth-best performer among its peers YTD.

Most of the crude tanker stocks rose in week 21. Euronav and DHT Holdings were the best performers in the sector.

In week 16, the BDTI was higher than the previous year’s level. On average, the index was 4% higher than the same period last year.

In week 14, the BDTI (Baltic Dirty Tanker Index) fell from 790 to 775. The BDTI tracks shipping rates for crude oil tankers on representative routes.

Crude tanker stocks have given mixed returns in 2017. Gener8 Maritime has been the best performer YTD, while Nordic American has been the worst.

In August 2017, China’s auto sales rose 4.1% YoY (year-over-year). Its total vehicle sales rose 5.3% to 2.19 million in August.

In week 9 of 2018, which ended on March 2, the BDTI rose from 646 to 669. In week 8, the index fell by three points.

Tsakos Energy Navigation’s (TNP) YTD returns were -12.8% as of April 5, 2018. Tsakos Energy Navigation is the fifth-best performer among its peers YTD.

In week 39, the week ending September 29, the BDTI rose to 776 from 772. In week 38, the index rose by 28 points. It rose for the fifth consecutive week.

The consensus 12-month target price for Frontline is $5.02, which implies a potential upside of 3.7% from the market price on April 19.

Euronav’s (EURN) YTD (year-to-date) returns were -9.2% as of April 5, 2018. Euronav is the third-best performer among its peers on a YTD basis.

Analysts’ EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization) estimate for 2Q16 is $97 million, a 94% increase from $50 million in 2Q15.

In week 7 of 2018, which ended on February 16, the BDTI rose to 649 from 642. In week 6, the index fell by 16 points.

The consensus 12-month target price for Gener8 Maritime Partners is $6.8—a potential upside of 10.4% from the market price of $6.16 on May 25.

According to Reuters, the consensus rating for Tsakos Energy Navigation is two, which means a “buy.”

Navios Maritime Midstream Partners earned revenues of $19.8 million in the first quarter—6.3% lower than the previous year.

According to Reuters, the consensus rating for DHT Holdings (DHT) is 2.21, which means a “buy.”

According to Reuters, the consensus rating for Frontline (FRO) is 3.33, which means a “hold.”

Tsakos Energy Navigation (TNP) is expected to release its first-quarter results on June 15. The stock has fallen 5.6% YTD as of May 30.

Analysts’ EBITDA estimate for Frontline in the first quarter is $33.2 million—a 65% decrease from $97.3 million in the first quarter of 2017.

On May 29, DNB Market raised the target price for Frontline to 60 Norwegian kroner from 40 Norwegian kroner.

China, which has the second-largest economy in the world, has a significant impact on the crude tanker industry.

DHT Holdings has the best YTD return as of April 5, 2018, among its peers. Analysts’ consensus rating for DHT Holdings (DHT) is 2.25.

Now that we’ve compared crude tanker companies’ 4Q17 performances, let’s discuss analysts’ recommendations.

In week 11, the week ending March 16, 2018, none of the analysts revised their recommendations or target prices for crude tanker companies.

In week 10, the week ending March 9, 2018, one analyst revised Tsakos Energy Navigation’s (TNP) target price.

In week 10 of 2018, which ended on March 9, the BDTI dropped to 653 from 669. In week 9, the index rose by 23 points.

Of the 13 analysts covering Tsakos Energy Navigation, two of them have recommended a “strong buy,” while six have recommended a “buy.”

In week 9 of 2018, one analyst revised Frontline’s (FRO) target price. On March 1, Evercore reduced Frontline’s target price to $3.5 from $4.

In week 8, the week ending February 23, 2018, one analyst revised the target price for Frontline (FRO).

The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers predicts 3% auto sales growth in 2018—the same as the growth rate in 2017.

In January 2018, China’s manufacturing PMI (purchasing managers’ index) was 51.3. The PMI fell from 51.6 in December.

China released its trade data for January. In dollar terms, China’s exports rose 11.1% YoY (year-over-year), while its imports rose 36.9%.

On December 21, 2017, Euronav (EURN) and Gener8 Maritime Partners (GNRT) announced a stock-for-stock merger.

Four analysts cover Navios Maritime Midstream Partners (NAP). According to Reuters, the consensus rating for the stock is 3.25, which means a “hold.”

On January 19, 2018, J.P. Morgan reduced its target price for Euronav to $8 from $9.

In December 2017, China’s auto sales rose 0.1% YoY (year-over-year) to 3.1 million. China’s automobile sales have been rebounding since June.

In December 2017, China’s manufacturing PMI (purchasing managers’ index) was 51.6. The PMI fell from 51.8 in October.

China (FXI) released key economic data for December 2017—import and export data, auto sales data, and the manufacturing index.

In the week ending January 12, 2018, none of the analysts revised their recommendations on crude (DBO) tanker companies.

On January 4, 2018, UBS downgraded Gener8 Maritime Partners (GNRT) to “neutral” from “buy” and raised the target price to $6.75 from $6.5.

On January 4, 2018, the average bunker fuel price was $431 per ton—compared to $413 per ton on December 21, 2017.

One analyst gave a “buy” recommendation, four analysts gave a “hold” recommendation, and one analyst gave a “sell” recommendation for Frontline stock.

None of the analysts revised their recommendations or target prices for crude (DBO) tanker companies in week 51 (week ending December 22, 2017).

On December 21, 2017, Euronav confirmed that it will acquire Gener8 Maritime Partners for ~$493 million in an all-stock transaction.

Analysts’ consensus target price is $9.5 as of December 19. NAP is trading at $9.21, which implies a 3.1% return in the next 12 months at the current price.

Euronav was the best performing stock in 2017 among its peers. Analysts’ consensus rating for Euronav (EURN) is 2.17, which means a “buy.”

Gener8 Maritime Partners (GNRT) YTD (year-to-date) returns were -0.89% as of December 18, 2017. It was the second-best performer among its peers in 2017.

Euronav’s (EURN) YTD (year-to-date) returns were 3.7% as of December 18, 2017. It was the best performer among its peers in 2017.

China (FXI) released key economic data for November 2017—import and export data, auto sales data, and the manufacturing index.

For Nordic American Tankers (NAT), five analysts recommended a “hold,” two analysts recommended a “sell,” and two analysts recommended a “strong sell.”

Inflation is expected to reduce the value of assets if the price rise of the asset doesn’t catch up with inflation. Core inflation in the United States is growing at a rate of ~2%.

In the week ended February 10, 2017, the BDTI (Baltic Dirty Tanker Index) fell from 858 to 847. The index fell on three out of five days in the week.

On January 25, Navios Maritime Midstream Partners announced its 4Q16 revenue and earnings after the markets closed. Its revenue fell 11% to $22.8 million.

Revenue and earnings estimates Wall Street analysts estimate that General Maritime Partners’ (GNRT) revenue will be ~$95 million in the fourth quarter, compared with $69 million in 3Q16 and ~$100 million in 4Q15. While revenue is expected to be lower year-over-year, EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization) are estimated to higher. Analysts expect 4Q16 EBITDA […]

In week 47, which ended on November 25, 2016, the BDTI (Baltic Dirty Tanker Index) rose from 828 to 892. The index rose sharply by 28 points on Tuesday.

In October 2016, China’s manufacturing PMI (purchasing managers’ index), which is an indicator of the country’s economic health, came in at 51.2 (MCHI) (FXI).

On October 26, 2016, Navios Maritime Midstream Partners (NAP) announced its 3Q16 revenue and earnings. NAP stock rose 12.0% that day compared to the previous day’s closing price.

The BDTI (Baltic Dirty Tanker Index) stood at 554 on September 12, 2016. For the week ended September 9 (Week 36), the BDTI rose to 542 from 516 at the beginning of the week.

The BDTI (Baltic Dirty Tanker Index) stood at 505 on August 8, 2016. For the week ending, August 5 (week 31), the BDTI fell to 509 from 541 at the beginning of the week.

The BDTI (Baltic Dirty Tanker Index) stood at 532 on August 1, 2016. For the week ending July 29 (week 30), the BDTI fell to 541 from 582 at the beginning of the week.

For the week ending on March 4, 2016, most of the crude tanker stocks closed and gave a positive weekly return expectation. Teekay Tankers fell by 2%.