Abraxas Petroleum Corp
Crude Oil Is near $40: Which Upstream Stocks Will Be Impacted?
US crude oil has been near $40 since March 28. On March 28, 2016, WTI closed at $38.28. It was below the crucial technical support of $38.5.
Can the Fall in the Dollar Boost Crude Oil?
From June 14–21, 2016, crude oil rose 0.7%, while the US Dollar Index (UUP) fell about 0.96%. The index initially fell after the Fed kept interest rates unchanged on June 15.
US Consumer Price Inflation Remains Unchanged
The CPI (consumer price inflation), published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, remained unchanged in July. The energy index fell by 1.6% in July.
US Rig Count Falls, Production Falls Only Slightly: Why?
The US crude oil (USO) rig count fell below 400 in the week ended April 22, 2016.
Why Is May the Magic Month for Crude Oil Inventories?
In 2012 and 2014, crude oil inventories fell in May. The five-year average from 2011 to 2015 also indicates that crude oil inventories typically fall in May.
How Did Natural Gas, Crude Oil, and SPY Fare Last Week?
For the week ended July 8, 2016, August natural gas futures (UNG) (FCG) (UGAZ) (DGAZ) (BOIL) fell by 6.2%.
How Did Saudi Arabia’s Message Impact Oil Investors?
Saudi’s deputy crown prince indicated that crude oil is a free market. Saudi Arabia may not be interested in returning to the OPEC mechanism.
Crude Oil’s Comeback: Analyzing Oil-Weighted Stocks
On August 15, 2016, US crude oil (USO) (OIIL) (USL) (SCO) contracts for September delivery closed at $45.74 per barrel—2.8% above its previous closing price.
How Does Seasonality Impact Crude Oil Inventories?
US commercial crude oil inventories fell by around 4.2 MMbbls for the week ending on May 20, 2016—compared to the previous week.
Analyzing Implied Volatility for Crude Oil and Natural Gas
Crude oil’s (USO) implied volatility was 33.31 on May 27, 2016. The 15-day average is at 39.16. The current implied volatility is 15% below its 15-day average.
The Impact of US Job Data on Crude Oil
The Market’s expectation of a rate hike following improved economic data could boost the US Dollar Index (UUP), which could negatively affect crude oil prices.
How Do Energy ETFs Perform during Falling Energy Prices?
From July 14 to July 21, the US crude oil futures contract for September delivery fell ~3.4%. The fall in energy ETFs could be due to the fall in oil prices.
How Did XLE Fare Compared to Other SPDR ETFs?
From July 7–July 14, 2016, the Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) rose 3.7%.
Oil Inventories: What Do They Indicate for Oil Prices?
The relationship between crude oil inventories and crude oil prices is inverse. Crude oil prices bottomed out in early 2016. Inventories topped out as well.
How Are Key Macroeconomic Indicators Affecting Oil?
The US (SPY) (VOO) consumer sentiment index was 93.5 for June’s final reading, according to the University of Michigan survey released on June 24, 2016.
How the Fed’s Interest Rate Decision Impacted Crude Oil
On June 15, 2016 the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) announced its decision to keep interest rates unchanged.
Why Did XLE Underperform Other SPDR ETFs?
From June 9–16, 2016, the Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) outperformed other market sectors. It fell ~3.2%.
Will the Dollar’s Recovery Affect Crude Oil?
Between June 7 and June 14, 2016, crude oil (USO) fell by ~3.7% while the US dollar index (UUP) rose by around 1.2%.
Key Macro Economic Indicators: How Do They Impact Oil?
Improved consumer sentiment could impact the timing of the next rate hike. It could impact US Dollar Index (UUP) and crude oil prices.
Will Movements in the Dollar Index Help the Crude Oil Rally?
Between May 31 and June 7, crude oil (USO) rose about 2.5% while the US dollar index (UUP) fell around 2.2%.
A Look at Key Economic Indicators and Crude Oil
The Market’s expectation of a delay in a rate hike could weaken the US Dollar Index (UUP), which could support crude oil prices.
What Do Key Economic Indicators Suggest for Crude Oil?
The one-month correlation of crude oil prices with the US Dollar Index was -9.2% on May 27. It shows the US dollar’s inverse impact on crude oil prices.
What’s the Correlation between Crude Oil and the US Dollar Index?
Between May 24 and May 31, crude oil gained about 0.98% despite the fact that the US Dollar Index also rallied around 0.33%.
The Oil Rally: Is It a Leading Indicator for a Stronger Dollar?
Market expectations of a rate hike could strengthen the US Dollar Index if the crude oil rally continues. Rising crude oil can also reflect improving consumer sentiment.
Oil-Weighted Stocks: How Are They Performing Compared to Crude Oil?
Oil-weighted stocks have underperformed crude oil in the last six trading sessions.
How Did the Consumer Price Index Affect Crude Oil Prices?
The US (SPY) (VOO) CPI (consumer price index) rose 0.4% on a month-over-month basis in April, according to a US Department of Labor report on May 17, 2016.
Can Rising Oil Push the Dollar Up?
In the last six trading sessions, US crude oil (USO) gained about 8.2%. However, the US Dollar Index (UUP) only rose 0.27%.
Why XLE Underperformed Other SPDR Sector ETFs
Between May 5 and May 12, 2016, the energy sector underperformed other market sectors. The Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) rose ~0.63% in the period.
What’s the Correlation between Crude Oil and the Dollar Index?
Between September 2007 and April 2013, the crude oil (USO) and dollar index (UUP) one-month correlation was positive in only a few instances.
What Are Key Macroeconomic Indicators for Crude Oil?
The last one-month correlation of crude oil with the US Dollar Index spot stood at 2.4% on May 6, 2016. This is a low correlation.
Key Macroeconomic Indicators for Crude Oil
In February 2016, crude oil touched a 12-year low, and the S&P500 hit a one-year low. Crude oil and the S&P 500 index seem to have already discounted the slower growth rate.
Gold and Crude Oil: How Does the Correlation Work?
Gold (GLD) can be considered an indicator of economic fear and inflation expectations. Driven by these fears, gold gains during equity market turmoil.
Key Upstream Stocks Could Be Impacted by Crude’s Downturn
Abraxas Petroleum has the highest positive correlation with WTI crude oil among the upstream companies that are part of XOP between February 11 and April 4.
The US Dollar Index Slips to 1-Month Lows
The US Dollar Index fell by nearly 1% as the basket of currencies that the US dollar is weighed against posted gains.
US Dollar Index and Iran’s Nuclear Accord: Key for Crude Oil
The US dollar appreciated against the basket of currencies in the early trade on June 29, 2015. The Greece default crisis supported the US dollar.