More From Manu Milan
Crude Oil Prices and Refinery Margins: Catalysts for Gasoline Prices
The EIA’s weekly gasoline and diesel fuel price update released on January 11, 2016. It showed that US regular gasoline prices averaged $1.99 per gallon.
Tesoro’s Big Bet on Building Crude-by-Rail Infrastructure
An important part of Tesoro’s business, crude-by-rail allows refiners to cover maximum accessibility and to gain from price differentials.
Key for Investors: Will Propane Prices Rise?
In its “Weekly Petroleum Status Report” released on October 21, the EIA stated that residential propane prices averaged just under ~$1.90 per gallon.
Why Distillate Inventories Declined for the Week Ending January 15
US distillate fuel inventories fell by ~1.1 MMbbls (million barrels) to settle at 164.5 MMbbls for the week ending January 15, 2016.
Why Was Greater Propane Demand Unable to Push Prices?
US residential propane demand is 1.5 MMbpd for the week ended December 4. This was 0.24 MMbpd more than the demand in the week ended November 27.
WTI Crude Oil Prices Slide Over 10%
WTI crude oil closed at $33.16 per barrel for the week ended January 8, 2016, 10.4% lower than its closing price in the week prior.
Refinery Maintenance Could Raise Gasoline Prices
The EIA’s (U.S Energy Information Administration) most recent weekly gasoline and diesel fuel price report showed that US regular gasoline retail prices averaged $2.02 per gallon yesterday.
Iran Set to Increase Crude Oil Production and Flood World Markets
Now that export sanctions have lifted, the global crude oil markets are ready to be flooded with Iranian crude oil of around 1 MMbpd in the first quarter of 2016.
Joint Ventures in US Shale Plays Are Helping Chinese Companies Bring Down Well Drilling Costs
To get expertise in shale gas exploration, China has invested more than 20% of the total investments in US shale gas exploration.
Why Did RBOB Gasoline Outperform Heating Oil?
The EIA reported RBOB gasoline futures contract 1 prices at $1.30 per gallon on November 23, representing a fall of ~1.8% from $1.32 per gallon on October 16.
New York Harbor ULSD Spot Prices Have Risen: Why?
The New York Harbor ULSD (ultra-low sulfur diesel) spot price was $1.505 per gallon on November 2, 2015. This represents a rise of ~1.1% from the price of $1.488 per gallon recorded on October 30, 2015.
Stronger Dollar Impacted the WTI-Brent Spread
WTI crude oil’s discount to Brent crude oil converged slightly in the week ending December 4, 2015—compared to the WTI-Brent spread on November 27.
Will Diesel Prices Recover in 2016?
The EIA’s (U.S. Energy Information Administration) weekly gasoline and diesel fuel price report showed that diesel prices averaged $2.21 per gallon yesterday.
Greater Demand: Impact on Gasoline Prices
Gasoline production rose from ~9.31 MMbpd (million barrels per day) in the week ended October 2, to ~9.62 MMbpd in the week ended October 9.
WTI-Brent Spread Diverges: Adverse for US Oil Producers
A wider WTI-Brent spread has a negative impact on certain US producers. But Phillips 66 (PSX) benefits from a wider WTI-Brent spread due to benchmarking with Brent price.
CRAK Provides Broad Exposure to Developed and Emerging Markets
CRAK provides investors with broader global exposure, diversifying its portfolio with developed markets as well as emerging markets like Japan and India.
CRAK Offers Exposure to Crude Oil Refining Companies
Van Eck Global launched the VanEck Vectors Oil Refiners ETF (CRAK) on August 18, 2015. CRAK is a good option for investors who want exposure to the energy sector but don’t expect energy prices to rise anytime soon.
Slippery Crude Oil Price Forecasts Could Beat the Bullish Trend
The EIA forecasts that WTI crude oil prices will average $38 per barrel in 2016 and $47 per barrel in 2017. Brent crude oil prices are forecasted higher.
Will Jet Fuel Inventories Continue Their Fall?
The EIA stated that jet fuel inventories fell from 42.2 MMbbls (million barrels) to 41.8 MMbbls in the week ended January 22.
What Does the Decline in Distillate Inventories Mean?
On January 27, 2016, the EIA stated that US distillate fuel inventories fell by ~4.0 MMbbls (million barrels) to settle at 160.5 MMbbls for the week ended January 22, 2016.
Crude Oil Prices Set for Weekly Gains Due to Supply Cut Talks
Crude oil prices rose more than 9% to close at $33.22 per barrel on January 28, 2016. Crude oil prices fell by more than 5% on January 25.
Lower Gasoline Demand Sent Prices Down
According to the EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status report, US gasoline demand was 8.9 MMbpd (million barrels per day) for the week ended January 22.
Russia’s Steps toward Production Cuts Widen the WTI-Brent Spread
WTI’s (West Texas Intermediate) crude oil price premium over Brent crude oil prices turned to a discount. As a result, the WTI-Brent widened.
WTI Crude Oil Traded at a Discount over Brent Crude Oil
The wider WTI–Brent spread means lower prices for WTI crude oil compared to Brent crude oil. This yields lower revenues for US crude oil producers like Apache.
WTI Crude Oil Prices Rose after EIA Report
Crude oil prices have gained ~6.4% within the last two days, ignoring the gasoline and crude oil inventory builds.
Refinery Inputs Fell ahead of Summer Refinery Maintenance
The EIA reported that US crude oil refinery inputs averaged 15.6 MMbpd (million barrels per day) during the week ended January 22, 2016.
Crude Oil Production Levels Didn’t Contribute to Inventory Builds
US weekly crude oil production slightly fell by 0.01 MMbpd to settle at 9.2 MMbpd for the week ended January 22, 2016.
Analyzing the Impact of Surging Crude Oil Inventories
The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported that US crude oil inventories rose by 8.4 million barrels to settle at 494.9 million barrels for the week ended January 22, 2016.
Why Have Crude Oil Prices Ignored Massive Inventory Builds?
WTI (West Texas Intermediate) crude oil prices ended the previous week with ~9% gains on a weekly basis to close at $32.2 per barrel on January 22, 2016.
Warm Winter Added Pressure on Heating Oil Prices
Heating oil prices were at $2.17 per gallon on January 18, which represents a fall of $0.05 per gallon compared to prices for the previous week.
US Crude Oil Production Levels Pushed Inventory Levels
The rise in crude oil production levels is good for crude oil producers. But the current levels resulted in massive inventory builds due to lower demand.
Will the EIA’s Petroleum Status Report Reflect Crude Inventory?
The API released its crude oil inventory report on January 26. It reported that the US crude oil inventories rose by 11.4 MMbbls for the week ending January 22.
Crack Spread Fell despite Lower Crude Oil Prices
The NYMEX front month 3:2:1 crack spread fell by 3.1% on a weekly basis. It fell from $12.82 per barrel on January 18 to $12.43 per barrel on January 25, 2016.
Will Refineries Suffer from Lower Gasoil Crack Spread?
The US Gulf Coast gasoil crack spread fell by more than $5 per barrel compared to the previous month to average $6.4 per barrel in December 2015.
Why Are Gasoline Prices So High in the West Coast Region?
Gasoline prices in the West Coast region were at $2.45 per gallon on January 25, 2016—around $0.60 per gallon higher than the average US gasoline prices.
Will Gasoline Prices Remain Lower for Even Longer?
The EIA’s weekly gasoline and diesel fuel price update released on January 25, 2016. It showed that US regular gasoline retail prices averaged $1.85 per gallon.
What Could Be the Blowback of Rising Jet Fuel Imports?
Jet fuel inventories rose from 40.7 MMbbls (million barrels) for the week ending January 8 to 42.2 MMbbls for the week ending January 15.
Short Covering Caused Crude Oil Prices to Rise on a Weekly Basis
WTI crude oil prices closed at $32.19 per barrel for the week ending January 22, 2016. Prices rose by $2.77 or ~9.4% per barrel on January 22, 2016.
NOOA Forecasts Mild Weather, but Will Propane Demand Slide Further?
US residential propane demand was at 1.03 MMbpd for the week ending January 15. Propane demand was 0.39 MMbpd less than the prior week’s demand.
Refinery Inputs Have Declined, but What Does that Really Mean?
US crude oil refinery inputs averaged 16.2 MMbpd during the week ending January 15, 2016. This represents a decrease of 233,000 bpd.
China’s Crude Oil Demand Widened the WTI-Brent Spread
WTI crude oil prices outpaced Brent crude oil prices in the week ending January 15, 2016. The WTI-Brent spread narrowed to $0.48 per barrel on January 15.
WTI Crude Oil Prices Fell More than 23% in 2016
WTI crude oil prices closed at $28.44 per barrel on January 19, 2016. They fell by 3.3%—compared prices of $29.42 per barrel for the week ending January 15.
IEA Trimmed Crude Oil Demand Estimates for 2016
The crude oil demand growth fell to a one-year low in 4Q15. Economic weakness in some European and Asian countries decreased the gasoline demand.
US Crude Oil Production Is Expected to Fall in 2016
US crude oil production peaked at 9.6 MMbpd in April 2015. It fell to 9.2 MMbpd by December 2015. It’s expected to fall to just 8.1 MMbpd by the end of 2016.
Heating Degree Days to Fall by 15%: What’s the Impact on Prices?
According to the EIA’s (U.S. Energy Information Administration) forecasts, the number of heating degree days for the Northeast region this winter is expected to be 4,494, which is about 20% lower than last year’s figure.
US Households Prefer Electricity and Natural Gas for Home Heating
Natural gas is used as heating fuel in 48% of the homes across the country, electricity is used for heat in 38% of homes, and the rest of the fuels are used for heat in the remaining 14% of homes.
Why WTI Crude Oil Prices Are Outpacing Brent
WTI (West Texas Intermediate) crude oil prices have been outperforming Brent crude oil prices. Brent prices are thus trading at a discount over WTI prices.
A Surge in Propane Demand: Will the Trend Continue?
The rise in propane demand pushed the price of propane up $0.01 per gallon. Since propane is used for heat in some US households, propane demand generally rises in mid-winter months.
Propane Inventories Decreased, Propane Production Rose
In its weekly petroleum status report released on January 13, 2016, the EIA stated that US propane inventories decreased by 4.5 MMbbls to 91.9 MMbbls for the week ended January 8, 2016.
Strong Distillate Inventories Build, Forcing Prices to the Floor
The EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report released on January 13 reported that US distillate inventories rose by ~6.1 MMbbls for the week ended January 8.
Lower Gasoline Demand Pushed Inventories to Surge
Gasoline demand was 8.5 MMbpd for the week ended January 8, 2016. Demand rose by ~0.34 MMbpd compared to the previous week ended January 1, 2016.
Why Have Refinery Inputs Dwindled?
The EIA’s weekly report on January 13, 2016, stated that US crude oil refinery inputs averaged over 16.4 MMbpd during the week ended January 8, 2016.
API Report: Crude Oil Inventories Fell despite an Expected Rise
The API reported that US crude oil inventories fell by 3.9 MMbbls for the week ending January 8, 2016. Analysts expected the inventories to rise by 2.0 MMbbls.
API Reported a Fall in Crude Oil Inventories
The API releases its weekly crude oil inventory report every Tuesday. US crude oil inventories rose by 2.6 MMbbls for the week ending January 1, 2016.
Rising Distillate Inventories Put Pressure on Diesel Prices
The EIA’s weekly gasoline and diesel fuel price update released on January 11, 2016. It showed that diesel prices averaged $2.17 per gallon.
Propane Demand and Cold Forecasts Pushed Propane Prices
The EIA’s weekly propane and heating oil update reported that US residential propane demand is 1.3 MMbpd (million barrels per day) for the week ended January 1.
Propane Inventories and Production Moved in Opposite Directions
As of the week ended December 11, propane inventories were at 98.9 MMbbls. These levels were 26.2% more than they were in the corresponding period last year.
US Dollar and Cushing Inventories Impacted WTI Crude Oil Prices
WTI (West Texas Intermediate) crude oil prices closed at $35.80 per barrel on January 5, 2016. They fell by ~3.3% on January 5.
What’s the Impact of Lower Crude Oil Prices on the Crack Spread?
The NYMEX front-month 3:2:1 crack spread rose by about 10.6% over the last week, from $13.68 per barrel on December 28, 2015, to $15.14 per barrel on January 4, 2016.
Will Alternative Fuel Vehicles Decrease Crude Oil Demand Growth?
The share of alternative fuel vehicles accounts for just 6% of passenger cars. This means the preference for gasoline-driven cars is more compared to alternate fuel cars.
Crude Oil Demand Expected to Grow from Road Transportation
OPEC has estimated that the road transportation sector will account for one-third of the global crude oil demand growth between 2014 and 2040.
Crude Oil Demand Growth Shrinks in the Long Term
According to OPEC forecasts, on a yearly basis, global crude oil demand growth will gradually decline by 1 MMbpd on average from 2014–2035 to around 0.5 MMbpd each year from 2035–2040.
Rise in Gasoline Demand Unable to Pull Back Inventory Levels
US gasoline demand was 9.3 MMbpd for the week ended December 25, 2015. Gasoline demand rose by ~0.21 MMbpd from the previous week ended December 18.
Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel Inventories Fell Last Week
On December 30, the EIA stated that jet fuel inventories rose from 39.5 MMbbls for the week ended December 18 to 40.8 MMbbls for the week ended December 25.
Impact of Crude Oil Inventory Builds on WTI Crude Oil Prices
this week, WTI crude oil prices were volatile and fell to $36.6 per barrel on December 30. Brent crude oil rose more than 2% last week on a weekly basis.
Will WTI Crude Oil Trade at a Premium over Brent Crude Oil?
Global oversupplies had a greater impact on Brent crude oil prices in comparison to WTI’s crude oil prices (USO), so the WTI–Brent spread narrowed.
Will the Distillate Inventory Drawdown Boost Distillate Prices?
Distillate inventories fell by 0.7 MMbbls last week. The slight rise in demand and the slight fall in production have caused distillate inventories to fall.
Why Did WTI Crude Prices Rise despite Falling Brent Crude Prices?
WTI crude oil prices rallied by more than 4% though Brent crude oil prices fell 1.8% as Congress voted to remove the US ban on exporting crude oil.
Why Did USO Trade Better than XOP?
XOP offers an equal-weighted approach to oil and gas exploration and production. The portfolio is diversified. Its holdings don’t exceed 3%.
Are Lower Gasoline Prices Swallowing Refinery Margins?
US regular gasoline retail prices averaged $2.02 per gallon on December 21. Retail gasoline prices fell by 0.5% or $0.01 per gallon from the previous week.
Why Are Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel Prices on a Long-Term Downtrend?
Kerosene-type jet fuel inventories are 5% more than they were in 2014, but jet fuel prices slashed more than 40% compared to the corresponding period last year.
The Impact of Rising Distillate Stocks on Heating Oil Prices
The EIA’s heating oil and propane updates released on December 16, 2015, reported that heating oil prices were around $2.25 per gallon on December 14.
Propane Prices Rose a Bit despite Strong Inventory Builds
US residential propane prices averaged $1.98 per gallon for the week ended December 14, or $0.02 per gallon higher than the prices on December 7, 2015.
WTI-Brent Spread Narrows: Will the Trend Continue?
On December 11, the WTI-Brent spread was $2.31 per barrel. It narrowed to $1.1 per barrel in yesterday’s trade.
Will the Gasoline Demand Fall More?
For the week ending December 11, the US gasoline demand was 9.2 MMbpd. It fell by ~0.20 MMbpd compared to the previous week ending December 4.
Will Diesel Prices Recover in the Near Future?
On Monday, December 14, 2015, the EIA’s weekly gasoline and diesel fuel price updates showed that diesel fuel prices averaged $2.33 per gallon on the day.
USO Traded Better than WTI and XOP in the Week Ended December 11
Due to leverage and timing issues, futures are complex to trade. So, retail investors can also access WTI crude oil prices through ETFs like USO and XOP.
The EIA Forecasts Lower Natural Gas Heating Bills
Natural gas prices rallied after the release of the EIA’s weekly natural gas report on December 10, as it showed a greater-than-expected fall in inventories.
Heating Oil Prices Pressured by Distillate Inventories
On December 7, heating oil prices in the Midwest and East Coast fell by $0.05 per gallon and $0.02 per gallon, respectively, to settle at $1.96 and $2.33 per gallon.
How China’s Slowing Crude Oil Demand Could Affect Crude Oil Market
Global crude oil inventory builds have averaged 1.8 MMbpd (million barrels per day) in 2015. The EIA expects inventory builds will slow in the fourth quarter to average 1.6 MMbpd.
What Does the EIA Forecast for WTI and Brent Crude Oil Prices?
In November, Brent oil prices averaged $44 per barrel—$4 per barrel lower than October’s average. WTI (West Texas Intermediate) crude oil prices also fell $4 per barrel in November.
Strong Supply and Weak Demand Hit Diesel Prices
On December 7, the diesel prices were 4.8% lower than the prices recorded on November 9. They were ~32.70% lower than the prices in the same period last year.
Rising Crude Oil Production Caused Gasoline Prices to Fall
On December 7, the gasoline prices were 8.1% lower than the prices recorded on November 9. They were ~23.4% lower than the prices in the same period last year.
Why Did the Crack Spread Narrow?
The NYMEX front month 3:2:1 crack spread fell by $1.92 or ~12.7% per barrel from $15.01 per barrel on November 27 to $13.90 per barrel on November 30.
Why Did Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel Inventories Rise?
In its weekly petroleum status report, the EIA reported that US kerosene-type jet fuel inventories were 38.1 MMbbls for the week ending November 27.
Heating Oil Prices Fell Last Week: Will the Trend Continue?
In its Weekly Petroleum Status Report released on December 2, the EIA reported that US average heating oil prices were at $2.36 per gallon on November 30.
Analyzing the WTI-Brent Spread: Why It Narrowed
The WTI-Brent spread narrowed from $3.15 per barrel on November 27 to $2.59 per barrel on December 1. It was $3–$3.2 per barrel in the week ending November 27.
Brent Crude Oil Prices Fell More than WTI Prices
WTI (West Texas Intermediate) crude oil prices closed at $41.85 per barrel on December 1. They rose by $0.15 or ~0.35% per barrel on December 1.
Will Rising Jet Fuel Imports Hurt Domestic Refiners?
Jet fuel imports were 104.3% higher in 2015 than in the same period last year. Jet fuel production was 2.5% higher than in the same period last year.
Why Have Refinery Inputs Increased?
The EIA reported that the US crude oil refinery inputs averaged 16.4 MMbpd (million barrels per day) during the week ending November 20, 2015.
What’s the Relation between MLP ETFs and USO?
The United States Oil ETF (USO) fell by 0.99% in the week ending November 20—compared to the previous week ending November 13, 2015.
How Do Inventory Builds Impact the WTI-Brent Spread?
The Brent crude oil premium to WTI crude oil spread widened in the week ending November 20, 2015—compared to the WTI-Brent spread on November 16.
The Impact of Lower Gasoline Production on Gasoline Stocks
US gasoline production fell from 9.7 MMbpd in the week ended November 6, 2015, to 9.6 MMbpd in the week ended November 13, 2015.
Will Greater Distillate Demand Favor Heating Oil Prices?
In its Weekly Petroleum Status Report released on November 18, the EIA stated that heating oil prices were at $2.39 per gallon for the week ended November 13.
Why Propane Prices Gained despite Inventory Builds
US residential propane prices were $1.93 per gallon for the week ended November 13, or $0.02 per gallon higher than prices for the week ended November 6.
Will Increased Distillate Demand Favor Prices?
Distillate demand has been volatile for the past four weeks. Distillate inventories fell 0.8 MMbbls, which indicates a growing distillate demand as winter approaches.
Will Increased Refinery Inputs Benefit Crude Oil Producers?
US crude oil refinery inputs averaged 16.1 MMbpd in the week ended November 13, 2015. That’s 137,000 barrels per day more than the previous week’s average.
Crack Spread Narrowed: Is There Less Demand for Crude Oil?
The benchmark US Gulf Coast 3:2:1 crack spread fell ~12.50% last week. It hit ~$13.28 per barrel on Friday, November 13, 2015.
Why Did the WTI-Brent Spread Converge?
A narrowed WTI-Brent spread boosts production volumes. This leads to increased transport volumes. So, transport operations will benefit.
What Caused WTI Prices to Fall?
WTI (West Texas Intermediate) crude oil prices closed at $42.06 per barrel on Monday, November 16. WTI oil futures snapped last week’s losing streak.