More From Lara Sheldon
Japan’s Service Activity Saw Modest Expansion in December 2015
Japanese services PMI slightly changed at 51.5 in December The service sector accounts for ~72.6% of Japan’s GDP. According to Markit, Japan’s services PMI (purchasing managers’ index) dipped slightly to 51.5 in December 2015, as compared to 51.6 in November 2015. As a result, the iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ) and the WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity […]
India’s Trade Deficit Falls as Value of Oil Imports Drops
With a falling trade deficit, the WisdomTree India Earnings ETF and the Direxion Daily India Bull 3X Shares rose 1.1% and 4.5%, respectively, as of December 15.
UK Industrial Production Regained Strength in August
With a rise in mining and quarrying activities, the UK industrial production index rose by 1% in August 2015 against a fall of 0.3% in July.
Mortgage Applications Rose, Volatility Continued in January
According to the MBA (Mortgage Bankers Association) survey, mortgage applications rose by 8.8% for the week ending January 22.
Housing Stocks Rallied Then Came to a Halt in December
Housing has been a bright spot in the US economy. But over the past month, housing stocks haven’t been performing well. ITB, a housing-focused fund, has fallen 4.7%.
Expanding Service Sector Gives Relief to Economy in September
With manufacturing slowing, a reading of the Non-Manufacturing Index at an above-neutral level (56.9) may provide some relief to the US economy, which is highly dependent on the service sector for its economic growth.
Jobless Claims Rose in January
According to the Department of Labor, initial jobless claims stood at 285,000 for the week ended January 30. This was a rise of 8,000 from the prior week.
Government Sector Influenced Personal Income and Expenses Rose
According to the BEA, personal income rose 0.30% to $52.5 billion in August 2015. This was below the consensus estimate of 0.40%.
Rise in Initial Jobless Claims Denotes Weakness in Manufacturing
According to the U.S. Department of Labor, initial jobless claims were 259,000 for the week ended October 17, 2015. Claims increased by 3,000 from the prior week’s revised level.
Capital Spending May Help Japan’s Economy to Grow at 1.7% in 2016
After sliding for two consecutive quarters, Japan’s economy has advanced 0.3% in 3Q15. This comes as a relief to the ailing Japanese economy.
Eurozone Disappoints with Negative Inflation in September
The Eurozone’s annual inflation is expected to fall to -0.10% in September—compared to 0.10% in August. It’s mainly attributed to the fall in energy prices.
Rise in Household Spending Provided Respite for UK Economic Growth
With household spending gathering pace, it could be an important growth driver for the United Kingdom’s economic growth.
Service Sector Expanded at Faster Rate in October
The service sector makes up more than 85% of the US economy. With manufacturing picking up in October, faster growth in the service sector may further ramp up economic growth.
New Home Sales Fell Due to the Price Hike in September
New home sales fell to 468,000 in September—compared to a downward revised 529,000 in August 2015. It’s below the consensus estimate of 549,000.
Lower Fuel Prices Led to a Decline in Import Prices in December
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, US import prices fell 1.2% month-over-month in December as compared to a 0.5% decline in November 2015.
France’s Services Business Activity Stagnated in December 2015
The service sector makes up about 78.9% of the French economy. According to Markit, France’s services business activity index declined by 1.2 points in December to 49.8.
Transportation Dragging New Orders on Durable Goods Down
Durable goods orders indicate what may occur in manufacturing activity. New orders for manufactured durable goods fell by 2.0% to $236.3 billion in August 2015.
Manufacturing Production Remains Negative in the UK
With the decline in manufacturing output, the iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWU) has fallen 6.6% over the past month as of January 12.
India’s Manufacturing Contracts in December 2015
India accounts for ~2.5% of the world’s GDP, and manufacturing activity accounts for ~17% of India’s GDP. The Nikkei India manufacturing index fell by 1.2 points to 49.1 in December.
Strong Dollar Is Playing Spoilsport in International Trade
Exports account for about 14% of the US GDP. A stronger dollar has deteriorated competitiveness of US companies in international trade.
Sluggish Wholesale Trade Sales in US Keep Inventory Build-Up Low
According to the US Census Bureau, wholesale inventories stood at $585.9 billion at the end of October.
DIA May Rise after Triggering Bullish Crossover
In DIA, the 20-day moving averages for MMM, BA, and HD are crossing over the 100-day moving averages. This is considered a bullish crossover.
Oil-Focused ETF Slides with Falling Inflation
With a 3.3% drop in energy prices, the producer price index is declining while energy-based stocks are falling. August’s PPI for final demand remains unchanged compared to 0.2% in July.
Service Sector Provides Optimism toward Growth in Germany
Germany’s composite output index declined to 54.3 in September compared to 55.0 in August 2015.
Why Russia’s Industrial Production Fell in September
According to the Federal State Statistics Service, Russia’s industrial production index (IIP) fell to 3.7% in September, compared to a fall of 4.3% in August 2015, YoY.
Manufacturing and Service Sectors Help France to Rebound
France’s composite output index increased to 51.4 in September compared to 50.2 in August 2015. It was another month of modest growth, with manufacturing contributing to the movement.
Eurozone Manufacturing Up in November: Will ECB Boost Stimulus?
In line with the flash estimate, the Eurozone manufacturing PMI rose to 52.8 in November 2015, up 0.5 points from the 52.3 reading in October.
Inflationary Pressure in Brazil Increased in September
While falling crude prices are leading to low inflation in the developed world, high oil prices are causing inflationary pressure in Brazil.
German Industrial Production Failed to Regain Strength in August
The Germany industrial production index fell 1.2% in August 2015 against a revised increase of 1.2% in July.
Online Sales Boosted Chinese Retail in September
According to the National Bureau of Statistics of China, retail sales reached 2,527.1 billion yuan, up by 10.9% in September as against 10.8% in August 2015.
Net Trade Contributed -1.0% to UK Gross Domestic Product
The only negative contribution to UK gross domestic product came from net trade, which contributed -1.0% in 3Q15 compared to an estimated -1.5%.
Greece’s Mixed Bag: Industrial Production and Negative Inflation
Industrial production remains an important gauge of economic activity. Greece’s IIP (industrial production index) rose 4.5% in August 2015 from August 2014.
Eurozone Retail Sales Saw a Broad Decline in November
Retail PMI has seen a broad-based downturn with a reduction in sales in Germany (EWG), Italy (EWI), and France (EWQ).
Pending Home Sales Rose Annually, but They’re Falling Monthly
According to the National Association of Realtors, US pending home sales rose marginally at 0.1% in December versus a 1.1% fall in November 2015.
Decline in Mining Activity Keeps Industrial Production Down
The decline in utilities by 2.0% in December was a main contributor towards the decline in industrial production.
India’s Central Bank Cut the Rate to Support the Global Recovery
With a fall in the inflation rate to 3.66%, the RBI initiated the rate cut. The inflation was below the target of 6% set by the RBI for January 2016.
Seasonal Rise in Services Boosted French Inflation
France’s CPI (consumer price index) rose 0.2% month-over-month in December, as compared to a 0.2% decline in November 2015.
France’s Manufacturing and Service Sectors Expanded Moderately
With manufacturing and services both recording growth in October, France’s composite output flash index rose to 52.3 in October compared to 51.9 in September.
European Stocks Fall due to Declining Consumer Confidence
The consumer confidence index provides a link between household expenditure and consumer sentiment in the economy.
China’s Manufacturing Deteriorated Further in December 2015
China accounts for ~8.4% of the global GDP, and manufacturing activity contributes about 31% to China’s GDP. The Caixin China manufacturing PMI declined 0.4 points to 48.2 in December.
Germany’s Inflation Remains Stable at 0.2% in August
Germany’s inflation data is on the radar of financial investors. As one of the largest economies in Europe, Germany serves as a growth engine for the continent.
Japan’s Manufacturing: Solid Improvement in Operating Conditions
The manufacturing sector in Japan accounts for ~19% of the country’s GDP. According to Markit, Japan’s flash manufacturing PMI fell by 0.2 points in January.
Japan: Recession with Continued Decline in Gross Domestic Product
This is the second consecutive quarter in which Japan economy has contracted. The aging population has been a major problem faced by the Japanese economy.
GDP Growth May Influence December Election Results in Spain
On a yearly basis, GDP growth in 3Q15 for Spain stands at 3.4% compared to 3.2% in the previous quarter. GDP growth was mainly attributed to an increase in domestic demand.
Assessing October Inflation in Brazil: Rising Fuel and Transport Prices
Brazil’s inflation rate stood at 9.93% in October, compared to 9.49% in September—the highest level of inflation Brazil has seen so far in 2015.
Japan’s Industrial Production Will Likely Be Gloomy in December
With a rise in production and shipments, Japan industrial production rose by 1.4% in October—compared to a rise of 1.1% in September 2015.
France’s Manufacturing Activity Remained Unchanged in November
According to Markit, the final manufacturing PMI for France remained unchanged at 50.6 in November for the third straight month.
Japan’s Retail Sales Rebounded in October
According to Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, retail sales rose 1.8% YoY (year-over-year) in October, as compared to the downwardly revised 0.1% decline in September 2015.
China’s Industrial Production Struggles to Regain Strength
According to the National Bureau of Statistics of China, industrial production in China rose 5.6% in October compared to 5.7% in September. The reading was below market expectations of 5.8%.
China’s Manufacturing Saw a Slight Rise, India’s Fell Further
China and India are the two major emerging economies. Manufacturing activity forms a major sector in both countries.
Falling Crude Prices Dragged Russia’s Trade Surplus in November
With Russia’s falling trade surplus, the iShares MSCI Russia Capped ETF and the Direxion Daily Russia Bull 3X ETF have fallen 16.6% and 60.9%, respectively.
Japan’s Rising Consumer Confidence Impacted Stocks
According to the Economic and Social Research Institute, Japan’s consumer confidence index rose by 0.1 points to 42.7 in December—compared to 42.6 in November.
France Saw Modest Growth in Industrial Production in October
France’s industrial production rose 2.3% year-over-year (or YoY) in October 2015 as compared to 0.7% in September 2015.
A Seasonal Fall in Manufactured Goods Brings Down French Inflation
France’s consumer price index declined by 0.4% in July 2015 after a 0.1% fall in June. Inflation has fallen for the past two consecutive months.
Germany’s Industrial Production Fell, Energy Production Rose
Germany’s IIP (industrial production index) fell by 0.3% month-over-month in November—compared to a revised rise of 0.5% in October 2015.
Declining Unemployment Hints at Tightening Labor Market in the UK
According to the Office for National Statistics, the unemployment rate in the UK dropped to 5.4% in the three months to August 2015 from 5.5% in the prior period.
Brazil’s Trade Surplus Jumped to a Record High in December
Brazil recorded a trade surplus of $6.2 billion in December 2015, as compared to a trade surplus of $0.3 billion in December 2014.
Service Sector in Emerging Economies Remains Mixed in September
Emerging economies remain mixed in September, with Russia expanding and Brazil contracting further. Although Russia has moved back to expansionary phase, its overall economic environment remains challenging with rising inflationary pressure.
Declining Wholesale Trade Sales May See Slide in Future Inventory
For October 2015, wholesale trade sales were $1,317.7 billion. They were down 0.2% in October from the previous month and fell 2.7% from a year ago.
Falling Fuel Prices Turned September Euro Area Inflation Negative
According to Eurostat, the euro area annual inflation rate fell to -0.1% in September 2015 against 0.1% in August 2015.
Mexico’s Industrial Production Remained Negative in November
According to the Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía (INEGI), Mexico’s industrial production fell by 0.5% in November 2015.
Decline in Services Increases Spain’s Unemployment in October
With an easing in the service sector, Spain’s unemployment rose by 82.3 thousand in October against a rise of 26.1 thousand in September. This is the highest since October 2013.
Brazilian Consumer Confidence Fell Further in November
With a drop in consumer confidence, the iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF (EWZ) and the Direxion Daily Brazil Bull 3X ETF (BRZU) were down 0.36% and 0.89%, respectively, as of December 14.
Mexico’s Manufacturing Improved at a Slower Pace in December 2015
Manufacturing activity accounts for ~18% of Mexico’s GDP. Mexico’s manufacturing PMI declined by 0.6 points to 52.4 in December, compared to 53.0 in November 2015.
The Japanese Housing Sector Sent a Mixed Signal in December
According to the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport, Japanese housing starts fell 1.3% in December YoY as compared to a rise of 1.7% in November.
Decline in Consumer Confidence Raises Concerns of Economic Growth
The consumer confidence index fell by 8.7 points to 90.4 in November 2015 compared to the upwardly revised level of 99.1 in October 2015. It was well below the consensus estimate of 99.6.
Producer Prices Rise along with Prices for Final Demand Services
With an increase in final demand services, the producer price index for final demand, or PPI-FD, rose by 0.3% in November.
Germany’s Manufacturing Activity Rose to 4-Month High in December
According to Markit, Germany’s manufacturing PMI rose to 53.2 in December 2015, compared to its November level of 52.9 level.
Eurozone Annual Inflation Remained Muted in October 2015
According to Eurostat, the Eurozone’s annual inflation stood at 0.1% in October, compared to -0.1% in September 2015.
Increased Mining Activities Lifted Industrial Production in the UK
The industrial production in the United Kingdom rose by 1.7% in October. During the month, three of the four main sectors increased.
September’s Fall in Import and Export Prices: What Does It Mean?
With the continuous decline in export prices, it is evident that the rising dollar is hampering the US competitiveness in the foreign market.
US Manufacturing Drops with Overall Slow Business Growth
According to the Institute for Supply Management, or ISM, the manufacturing PMI came in at 48.2 in December—a decline of 0.4 points from the November reading of 48.6.
Consumer Sentiment Drags Real Estate and Auto Stocks Down
Equity markets favor upbeat consumer sentiment reports. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment final index fell to 85.7 in September, compared to August’s reading of 91.9.
Mortgage Applications Increased Prior to Regulatory Change
Mortgage applications increased 25.5% for the week ending October 2, 2015 against a decrease of -6.7% in the previous week.
Declining Home Sales Moderates Price Appreciation in August
US existing home sales dipped 4.8% to 5.31 million in August, which is below the consensus estimate of 5.50 million.
Consumer Confidence Increases with Declining Jobless Claims
One of the important coincident indicators, initial jobless claims reports provide valuable insight into the current labor market conditions.
US Trade Deficit Fell due to Surge in September Exports
According to the US Census Bureau, the goods and services deficit was $40.8 billion in September, down $7.2 billion from a revised $48.0 billion in August.
Optimism in Small Business Remained Unchanged in October
According to the NFIB, the small business optimism index remained unchanged at 96.1 in October. The reading was below the consensus estimate of 96.4.
Increased Expectations Will Likely Boost Housing Demand
According to the National Association of Home Builders (or NAHB), the housing market index (or HMI) rose to 64 in October as compared to 61 in September 2015.
Why Did Consumer Sentiment Fall in February?
According to the University of Michigan, the consumer sentiment preliminary index fell to 90.7 in February—compared to 92.0 in January 2016.
January ISM Manufacturing Showed a Mixed Picture
The manufacturing sector accounts for about 12% of the US economy. The manufacturing PMI was 48.2 in January—a rise of 0.2 points from December.
Indian Manufacturing Moved into an Expansionary Phase in January
India accounts for about 2.7% of the world’s gross domestic product (or GDP), and manufacturing activity accounts for ~17% of India’s GDP.
Italy’s Manufacturing Activity Eased in January
The Italian economy contributes about 3.0% toward global gross domestic product, and the manufacturing sector accounts for 15% of the country’s economy.
Eurozone Manufacturing Eased in January
In-line with the flash estimate, the Eurozone’s manufacturing PMI (purchasing manufacturers’ index) stood at 52.3 in January 2016.
US Manufacturing Rebounded Slightly in January
The US economy contributes about 25.4% toward global gross domestic product, and the manufacturing sector accounts for one-tenth of the country’s economy.
Global Manufacturing Activity Remained Subdued in January 2016
According to JPMorgan Chase and Markit, the global manufacturing PMI (purchasing managers’ index) rose slightly to 50.9 in January 2016.
What Contributed to the Rise in Japanese Inflation in December?
The target inflation rate set by the B0J (Bank of Japan) stands at 2.0%. However, the December inflation is much lower than the target inflation rate.
House Prices Continued to Rise in November
With increasing home prices, builders might increase the home supply. Due to lower mortgage rates, more customers could be attracted to the housing sector.
Eurozone Flash Composite PMI Fell 53.5, Business Activity Cools
With the reading above neutral, the Eurozone continued its upturn in business activity. Though at a 12-month low, the services PMI rose to 53.6 in January
Online Sales to Seize Bigger Chunk of China’s Retail Sales
The increase in China’s retail sales was mainly due to an increase of 36.6% in sales of communication appliances, followed by increases in building materials, office supplies, and furniture.
Business Inventories and Sales Decline with Sluggish Demand
The November business inventories to sales ratio stood at 1.4, compared with 1.3 in November 2014.
Future Expectations and Consumer Sentiment Rise
With improved consumer sentiment, there may be greater consumer spending in the economy, which may translate into faster economic growth.
Producer Price Index Falls with Prices for Final Demand Goods
According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the PPI-FD (producer price index for final demand) moved down 1.0% in December, year-over-year.
Italy’s Inflation Rate Remained Flat in December
According to the National Institute of Statistics (Istat), Italy’s December inflation rate is expected to remain unchanged at 0.1% on a year-over-year (or YoY) basis.
Germany Inflation Rate Dipped in December
According to Germany’s Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), Germany’s December inflation rate is expected to come in at 0.3% on a YoY (year-over-year) basis as compared to 0.4% in November 2015.
Brazilian Manufacturing Remained in Contraction in December 2015
Brazil accounts for ~2.1% of the world’s GDP, and its manufacturing activity accounts for ~11% of Brazil’s GDP. Brazil’s manufacturing PMI increased by 1.8 points to 45.6 in December.
Spain’s Manufacturing Activity Hit 2-Month Low in December
According to Markit, Spain’s manufacturing PMI increased to 53.0 in December, a decline of 0.1 points from November’s reading of 53.1.
Chicago Business Activity Contracted at Fastest Pace in December
With a sharp fall in new orders, the Chicago PMI (purchasing managers’ Index) fell 5.8 points to 42.9 in December, as compared to 48.7 in November 2015.
Chinese Non-Manufacturing Continued to Expand in December
China’s non-manufacturing PMI (purchasing managers’ index) rose by 0.8 points to 54.4 in December as against 53.6 in November 2015.
Unemployment Rises in Japan
According to Japan’s Ministry of Internal Affairs & Communications, the unemployment rate rose to 3.3% in November 2015, as compared to 3.1% in October 2015 and 3.5% in November 2014.