Lara Sheldon
Disclosure: I am in full compliance with all ethics and other policies for Market Realist research analysts. I am not invested in securities that I cover on Market Realist.
More From Lara Sheldon
India’s Trade Deficit Falls as Value of Oil Imports Drops
With a falling trade deficit, the WisdomTree India Earnings ETF and the Direxion Daily India Bull 3X Shares rose 1.1% and 4.5%, respectively, as of December 15.
UK Industrial Production Regained Strength in August
With a rise in mining and quarrying activities, the UK industrial production index rose by 1% in August 2015 against a fall of 0.3% in July.
Mortgage Applications Rose, Volatility Continued in January
According to the MBA (Mortgage Bankers Association) survey, mortgage applications rose by 8.8% for the week ending January 22.
Housing Stocks Rallied Then Came to a Halt in December
Housing has been a bright spot in the US economy. But over the past month, housing stocks haven’t been performing well. ITB, a housing-focused fund, has fallen 4.7%.
Expanding Service Sector Gives Relief to Economy in September
With manufacturing slowing, a reading of the Non-Manufacturing Index at an above-neutral level (56.9) may provide some relief to the US economy, which is highly dependent on the service sector for its economic growth.
Government Sector Influenced Personal Income and Expenses Rose
According to the BEA, personal income rose 0.30% to $52.5 billion in August 2015. This was below the consensus estimate of 0.40%.
Capital Spending May Help Japan’s Economy to Grow at 1.7% in 2016
After sliding for two consecutive quarters, Japan’s economy has advanced 0.3% in 3Q15. This comes as a relief to the ailing Japanese economy.
Rise in Household Spending Provided Respite for UK Economic Growth
With household spending gathering pace, it could be an important growth driver for the United Kingdom’s economic growth.
India’s Manufacturing Contracts in December 2015
India accounts for ~2.5% of the world’s GDP, and manufacturing activity accounts for ~17% of India’s GDP. The Nikkei India manufacturing index fell by 1.2 points to 49.1 in December.
Strong Dollar Is Playing Spoilsport in International Trade
Exports account for about 14% of the US GDP. A stronger dollar has deteriorated competitiveness of US companies in international trade.
Sluggish Wholesale Trade Sales in US Keep Inventory Build-Up Low
According to the US Census Bureau, wholesale inventories stood at $585.9 billion at the end of October.
Oil-Focused ETF Slides with Falling Inflation
With a 3.3% drop in energy prices, the producer price index is declining while energy-based stocks are falling. August’s PPI for final demand remains unchanged compared to 0.2% in July.
Why Russia’s Industrial Production Fell in September
According to the Federal State Statistics Service, Russia’s industrial production index (IIP) fell to 3.7% in September, compared to a fall of 4.3% in August 2015, YoY.
Eurozone Manufacturing Up in November: Will ECB Boost Stimulus?
In line with the flash estimate, the Eurozone manufacturing PMI rose to 52.8 in November 2015, up 0.5 points from the 52.3 reading in October.
Net Trade Contributed -1.0% to UK Gross Domestic Product
The only negative contribution to UK gross domestic product came from net trade, which contributed -1.0% in 3Q15 compared to an estimated -1.5%.
Greece’s Mixed Bag: Industrial Production and Negative Inflation
Industrial production remains an important gauge of economic activity. Greece’s IIP (industrial production index) rose 4.5% in August 2015 from August 2014.
Pending Home Sales Rose Annually, but They’re Falling Monthly
According to the National Association of Realtors, US pending home sales rose marginally at 0.1% in December versus a 1.1% fall in November 2015.
India’s Central Bank Cut the Rate to Support the Global Recovery
With a fall in the inflation rate to 3.66%, the RBI initiated the rate cut. The inflation was below the target of 6% set by the RBI for January 2016.
France’s Manufacturing and Service Sectors Expanded Moderately
With manufacturing and services both recording growth in October, France’s composite output flash index rose to 52.3 in October compared to 51.9 in September.
China’s Manufacturing Deteriorated Further in December 2015
China accounts for ~8.4% of the global GDP, and manufacturing activity contributes about 31% to China’s GDP. The Caixin China manufacturing PMI declined 0.4 points to 48.2 in December.
GDP Growth May Influence December Election Results in Spain
On a yearly basis, GDP growth in 3Q15 for Spain stands at 3.4% compared to 3.2% in the previous quarter. GDP growth was mainly attributed to an increase in domestic demand.
Falling Crude Prices Dragged Russia’s Trade Surplus in November
With Russia’s falling trade surplus, the iShares MSCI Russia Capped ETF and the Direxion Daily Russia Bull 3X ETF have fallen 16.6% and 60.9%, respectively.
Service Sector in Emerging Economies Remains Mixed in September
Emerging economies remain mixed in September, with Russia expanding and Brazil contracting further. Although Russia has moved back to expansionary phase, its overall economic environment remains challenging with rising inflationary pressure.
Declining Wholesale Trade Sales May See Slide in Future Inventory
For October 2015, wholesale trade sales were $1,317.7 billion. They were down 0.2% in October from the previous month and fell 2.7% from a year ago.
Mexico’s Industrial Production Remained Negative in November
According to the Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía (INEGI), Mexico’s industrial production fell by 0.5% in November 2015.
Decline in Services Increases Spain’s Unemployment in October
With an easing in the service sector, Spain’s unemployment rose by 82.3 thousand in October against a rise of 26.1 thousand in September. This is the highest since October 2013.
Mexico’s Manufacturing Improved at a Slower Pace in December 2015
Manufacturing activity accounts for ~18% of Mexico’s GDP. Mexico’s manufacturing PMI declined by 0.6 points to 52.4 in December, compared to 53.0 in November 2015.
The Japanese Housing Sector Sent a Mixed Signal in December
According to the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport, Japanese housing starts fell 1.3% in December YoY as compared to a rise of 1.7% in November.
September’s Fall in Import and Export Prices: What Does It Mean?
With the continuous decline in export prices, it is evident that the rising dollar is hampering the US competitiveness in the foreign market.
Mortgage Applications Increased Prior to Regulatory Change
Mortgage applications increased 25.5% for the week ending October 2, 2015 against a decrease of -6.7% in the previous week.
US Trade Deficit Fell due to Surge in September Exports
According to the US Census Bureau, the goods and services deficit was $40.8 billion in September, down $7.2 billion from a revised $48.0 billion in August.
Optimism in Small Business Remained Unchanged in October
According to the NFIB, the small business optimism index remained unchanged at 96.1 in October. The reading was below the consensus estimate of 96.4.
Indian Manufacturing Moved into an Expansionary Phase in January
India accounts for about 2.7% of the world’s gross domestic product (or GDP), and manufacturing activity accounts for ~17% of India’s GDP.
Eurozone Manufacturing Eased in January
In-line with the flash estimate, the Eurozone’s manufacturing PMI (purchasing manufacturers’ index) stood at 52.3 in January 2016.
US Manufacturing Rebounded Slightly in January
The US economy contributes about 25.4% toward global gross domestic product, and the manufacturing sector accounts for one-tenth of the country’s economy.
Global Manufacturing Activity Remained Subdued in January 2016
According to JPMorgan Chase and Markit, the global manufacturing PMI (purchasing managers’ index) rose slightly to 50.9 in January 2016.
What Contributed to the Rise in Japanese Inflation in December?
The target inflation rate set by the B0J (Bank of Japan) stands at 2.0%. However, the December inflation is much lower than the target inflation rate.
House Prices Continued to Rise in November
With increasing home prices, builders might increase the home supply. Due to lower mortgage rates, more customers could be attracted to the housing sector.
Future Expectations and Consumer Sentiment Rise
With improved consumer sentiment, there may be greater consumer spending in the economy, which may translate into faster economic growth.
Spain’s Manufacturing Activity Hit 2-Month Low in December
According to Markit, Spain’s manufacturing PMI increased to 53.0 in December, a decline of 0.1 points from November’s reading of 53.1.
Disappointment Continues: Spanish Inflation Dips in December
Spanish inflation is expected to fall 0.3% in December, following a rise of 0.4% in the previous month.
Russian Manufacturing Contracts in December
According to Markit, Russia’s manufacturing PMI (purchasing managers’ index) declined by 1.4 points and came in at 48.7 in December, as compared to 50.1 in November 2015.
Consumer Spending May Drive US Economy to Grow at 2.5% in 2016
The US economy contributes about 25.2% towards global GDP. In 3Q15, the US economy grew at an annualized rate of 2.1% due to an increase in consumer spending.
Household Consumption Expenditure to Boost the Eurozone Economy
In 2015, the Eurozone economy advanced at a slower rate of 0.3% in 3Q15 with an increase in household consumption expenditure.
How Rising Inflation Is Affecting the Russian Economy
Like Brazil (EWZ), Russia (RUSL) (ERUS) is also struggling with high inflationary pressure. For the September quarter, Russian GDP (gross domestic product) fell 0.57%.
December’s Housing Market Saw a Drop in Buyer Traffic
According to the National Association of Home Builders (or NAHB), the housing market index fell by a single point to reach a level of 61.0 in December.
Falling Crude Oil Prices Keep UK Inflation in Check
The Bank of England or BoE is targeting an inflation rate at 2.0% in order to attain economic growth in the United Kingdom.
Bank of England Stays Put with Current Bank Rate
The Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee (or MPC) voted by a majority of 8:1 to maintain a bank rate at 0.5% yesterday.
US Trade Deficit Rises as Exports Fell More than Imports
The US trade deficit stood at $43.9 billion in October. International trade plays a crucial role in determining whether the economy is growing or not.
India’s Manufacturing Continued to Decline in November
India manufacturing PMI fell to 50.3 in November India accounts for about 2.5% of the world’s GDP, and manufacturing activity accounts for ~17% of India’s GDP. According to Markit, the Nikkei India manufacturing index declined by 0.4 points to 50.3 in November, compared to 50.7 in October 2015. Although manufacturing was down, India’s GDP rose to […]
Russia’s Manufacturing PMI Was Little Changed in November
Russia accounts for about 1.8% of the world’s GDP, and manufacturing activity accounts for ~15% of Russia’s GDP. Russia’s manufacturing PMI declined slightly to 50.1 in November, compared to 50.2 in October.
Germany’s Manufacturing Activity Rose at a Modest Rate in November
Germany’s manufacturing PMI rose to 52.9 in November 2015, up 0.8 points from October’s reading of 52.1 in October.
Declining Export Orders, Production Levels Slowed US Manufacturing
The US manufacturing PMI fell to 52.8 in November, a decline of 1.3 points from October’s reading of 54.1. This is one of the weakest readings since October 2013.
Global Manufacturing Activity Remained Soft in November
According to J.P.Morgan and Markit, the global manufacturing purchasing manufacturers’ index fell slightly to 51.2 in November, compared to 51.3 in October.
Italy’s Trade Surplus Widened with Declining Imports in September
According to the National Institute of Statistics (or ISTAT), Italy’s goods and services surplus rose to 2.2 billion euros in September 2015 compared to 2.0 billion euros a year ago.
Is US Consumer Sentiment Turning Pessimistic?
Though consumer sentiment remains low, the First Trust Consumer Discretionary AlphaDEX ETF (FXD) has gained 0.79% in the past week as of November 5, 2015.
Production and New Orders Look Positive for Manufacturing in October
Although the global climate remains challenging, manufacturing is still poised to grow strongly with October increases in new orders and production.
How Declining Wages and Salaries Kept Personal Income and Outlays Lower In September
Despite declining wages and salaries, personal income increased by 0.1%, or $18.6 billion, in September. Decreases in industrial demand have kept wages low.
Jobless Claims Remain Low in October
Employment figures are crucial for any economy. According to the U.S. Department of Labor, initial jobless claims were 260,000 for the week ended October 24, an increase of 1,000 from the prior week.
Consumer Spending Helps Economic Growth in Third Quarter
Consumer spending saw positive contributions to economic growth in 3Q15. An increase in consumer spending led to an increase in GDP for the third quarter.
Key for Investors: US Manufacturing Rebounds in October
The US Manufacturing PMI (purchasing managers’ index) rose to 54 in October in a preliminary reading—compared to a reading of 53.1 in September 2015.
Why Economic Growth in Russia Fell by 4.3% in September
According to the Federal Service of State Statistics, the gross domestic product (or GDP) of Russia has fallen 4.3% for the third quarter.
Consumer Sentiment Beats Estimates in October
the consumer sentiment final index rose to 92.1 in October against 87.2 in September. This was above the consensus median estimate of 89.0.
Low Mining Activity Kept September Industrial Production Negative
US Industrial production (or IIP) fell 0.2% in September as against the revised 0.1% fall in August 2015.
October Data Shows Business Conditions Remain Weak
According to the Empire State Manufacturing Survey released by the New York Federal Reserve, business activity fell to 11.36 points in October.
Energy Prices and Inflation Fell in September: Market Impact
As gasoline prices fell by 9.0% in September, inflation remained negative. The index for food away from home rose by 0.5% in September.
Falling Initial Jobless Claims Boost Consumer Sentiment
According to the US Department of Labor, initial jobless claims stood at 255,000 for the week ended October 10, a fall of 7,000 from the prior week’s revised level.
Why the Federal Manufacturing Index Fell in October
With new orders and shipments indexes turning negative, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index came in at -4.5 points in October 2015.
Russia’s Trade Surplus Falls along with Crude Oil Prices in August
According to the Central Bank of Russia, the goods and services surplus fell to $8.7 billion in August 2015, compared to $16.2 billion a year ago.
The China Slowdown and Global Growth Prospects for 2015
The IMF lowered its forecast of global growth prospects for 2015 to 3.1%—0.2% below its July forcast. High inflation continues to impact emerging economies.
Services Lead the Jump in Spain’s September Unemployment Data
Spain is one of the fastest-growing regions in the Eurozone. However, its increasing unemployment rate has become the biggest concern for the country’s policymakers.
Weakening Industrial Commodities Pull September Payrolls Down
US non-farm payrolls added 142,000 jobs in September compared to 173,000 in August, below the consensus estimate of 203,000. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5.1%.
Household Disposable Income Rose and Helped Economic Growth
The Household and Non-Profit Institutions Serving Households saving ratio was estimated to be 4.70% in the second quarter—compared to 4% in the first quarter.
Production and New Orders Fell and Impacted the Chicago PMI
The Chicago PMI fell by 5.7 points to a reading of 48.7 in September 2015—below the consensus estimate of 53.6. Production growth and new orders fell.
Mortgage Applications Fail to Improve on the Rate Cut
Mortgage applications reported a fall of 6.70% for the week ending September 25. The Purchase Index fell 6% and the Refinance Index fell 8% from the prior week.
Rise in Manufacturing Employment Suggests a Slowdown
In line with the consensus range, private sector employment rose by 200,000 jobs in September from a downward revised 186,000 jobs in August.
What is Driving Decreasing Inflation?
Commodity prices continue to subdue inflation globally. They remain a main concern for the Federal Reserve and any decision regarding future interest rate increases.
