Lara Sheldon

Japanese services PMI slightly changed at 51.5 in December The service sector accounts for ~72.6% of Japan’s GDP. According to Markit, Japan’s services PMI (purchasing managers’ index) dipped slightly to 51.5 in December 2015, as compared to 51.6 in November 2015. As a result, the iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ) and the WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity […]

With a falling trade deficit, the WisdomTree India Earnings ETF and the Direxion Daily India Bull 3X Shares rose 1.1% and 4.5%, respectively, as of December 15.

With a rise in mining and quarrying activities, the UK industrial production index rose by 1% in August 2015 against a fall of 0.3% in July.

According to the MBA (Mortgage Bankers Association) survey, mortgage applications rose by 8.8% for the week ending January 22.

Housing has been a bright spot in the US economy. But over the past month, housing stocks haven’t been performing well. ITB, a housing-focused fund, has fallen 4.7%.

With manufacturing slowing, a reading of the Non-Manufacturing Index at an above-neutral level (56.9) may provide some relief to the US economy, which is highly dependent on the service sector for its economic growth.

According to the Department of Labor, initial jobless claims stood at 285,000 for the week ended January 30. This was a rise of 8,000 from the prior week.

According to the BEA, personal income rose 0.30% to $52.5 billion in August 2015. This was below the consensus estimate of 0.40%.

According to the U.S. Department of Labor, initial jobless claims were 259,000 for the week ended October 17, 2015. Claims increased by 3,000 from the prior week’s revised level.

After sliding for two consecutive quarters, Japan’s economy has advanced 0.3% in 3Q15. This comes as a relief to the ailing Japanese economy.

The Eurozone’s annual inflation is expected to fall to -0.10% in September—compared to 0.10% in August. It’s mainly attributed to the fall in energy prices.

With household spending gathering pace, it could be an important growth driver for the United Kingdom’s economic growth.

The service sector makes up more than 85% of the US economy. With manufacturing picking up in October, faster growth in the service sector may further ramp up economic growth.

New home sales fell to 468,000 in September—compared to a downward revised 529,000 in August 2015. It’s below the consensus estimate of 549,000.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, US import prices fell 1.2% month-over-month in December as compared to a 0.5% decline in November 2015.

The service sector makes up about 78.9% of the French economy. According to Markit, France’s services business activity index declined by 1.2 points in December to 49.8.

Durable goods orders indicate what may occur in manufacturing activity. New orders for manufactured durable goods fell by 2.0% to $236.3 billion in August 2015.

With the decline in manufacturing output, the iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWU) has fallen 6.6% over the past month as of January 12.

India accounts for ~2.5% of the world’s GDP, and manufacturing activity accounts for ~17% of India’s GDP. The Nikkei India manufacturing index fell by 1.2 points to 49.1 in December.

Exports account for about 14% of the US GDP. A stronger dollar has deteriorated competitiveness of US companies in international trade.

According to the US Census Bureau, wholesale inventories stood at $585.9 billion at the end of October.

In DIA, the 20-day moving averages for MMM, BA, and HD are crossing over the 100-day moving averages. This is considered a bullish crossover.

With a 3.3% drop in energy prices, the producer price index is declining while energy-based stocks are falling. August’s PPI for final demand remains unchanged compared to 0.2% in July.

Germany’s composite output index declined to 54.3 in September compared to 55.0 in August 2015.

According to the Federal State Statistics Service, Russia’s industrial production index (IIP) fell to 3.7% in September, compared to a fall of 4.3% in August 2015, YoY.

France’s composite output index increased to 51.4 in September compared to 50.2 in August 2015. It was another month of modest growth, with manufacturing contributing to the movement.

In line with the flash estimate, the Eurozone manufacturing PMI rose to 52.8 in November 2015, up 0.5 points from the 52.3 reading in October.

While falling crude prices are leading to low inflation in the developed world, high oil prices are causing inflationary pressure in Brazil.

The Germany industrial production index fell 1.2% in August 2015 against a revised increase of 1.2% in July.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics of China, retail sales reached 2,527.1 billion yuan, up by 10.9% in September as against 10.8% in August 2015.

The only negative contribution to UK gross domestic product came from net trade, which contributed -1.0% in 3Q15 compared to an estimated -1.5%.

Industrial production remains an important gauge of economic activity. Greece’s IIP (industrial production index) rose 4.5% in August 2015 from August 2014.

Retail PMI has seen a broad-based downturn with a reduction in sales in Germany (EWG), Italy (EWI), and France (EWQ).

According to the National Association of Realtors, US pending home sales rose marginally at 0.1% in December versus a 1.1% fall in November 2015.

The decline in utilities by 2.0% in December was a main contributor towards the decline in industrial production.

With a fall in the inflation rate to 3.66%, the RBI initiated the rate cut. The inflation was below the target of 6% set by the RBI for January 2016.

France’s CPI (consumer price index) rose 0.2% month-over-month in December, as compared to a 0.2% decline in November 2015.

With manufacturing and services both recording growth in October, France’s composite output flash index rose to 52.3 in October compared to 51.9 in September.

The consumer confidence index provides a link between household expenditure and consumer sentiment in the economy.

China accounts for ~8.4% of the global GDP, and manufacturing activity contributes about 31% to China’s GDP. The Caixin China manufacturing PMI declined 0.4 points to 48.2 in December.

Germany’s inflation data is on the radar of financial investors. As one of the largest economies in Europe, Germany serves as a growth engine for the continent.

The manufacturing sector in Japan accounts for ~19% of the country’s GDP. According to Markit, Japan’s flash manufacturing PMI fell by 0.2 points in January.

This is the second consecutive quarter in which Japan economy has contracted. The aging population has been a major problem faced by the Japanese economy.

On a yearly basis, GDP growth in 3Q15 for Spain stands at 3.4% compared to 3.2% in the previous quarter. GDP growth was mainly attributed to an increase in domestic demand.

Brazil’s inflation rate stood at 9.93% in October, compared to 9.49% in September—the highest level of inflation Brazil has seen so far in 2015.

With a rise in production and shipments, Japan industrial production rose by 1.4% in October—compared to a rise of 1.1% in September 2015.

According to Markit, the final manufacturing PMI for France remained unchanged at 50.6 in November for the third straight month.

According to Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, retail sales rose 1.8% YoY (year-over-year) in October, as compared to the downwardly revised 0.1% decline in September 2015.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics of China, industrial production in China rose 5.6% in October compared to 5.7% in September. The reading was below market expectations of 5.8%.

China and India are the two major emerging economies. Manufacturing activity forms a major sector in both countries.

With Russia’s falling trade surplus, the iShares MSCI Russia Capped ETF and the Direxion Daily Russia Bull 3X ETF have fallen 16.6% and 60.9%, respectively.

According to the Economic and Social Research Institute, Japan’s consumer confidence index rose by 0.1 points to 42.7 in December—compared to 42.6 in November.

France’s industrial production rose 2.3% year-over-year (or YoY) in October 2015 as compared to 0.7% in September 2015.

France’s consumer price index declined by 0.4% in July 2015 after a 0.1% fall in June. Inflation has fallen for the past two consecutive months.

Germany’s IIP (industrial production index) fell by 0.3% month-over-month in November—compared to a revised rise of 0.5% in October 2015.

According to the Office for National Statistics, the unemployment rate in the UK dropped to 5.4% in the three months to August 2015 from 5.5% in the prior period.

Brazil recorded a trade surplus of $6.2 billion in December 2015, as compared to a trade surplus of $0.3 billion in December 2014.

Emerging economies remain mixed in September, with Russia expanding and Brazil contracting further. Although Russia has moved back to expansionary phase, its overall economic environment remains challenging with rising inflationary pressure.

For October 2015, wholesale trade sales were $1,317.7 billion. They were down 0.2% in October from the previous month and fell 2.7% from a year ago.

According to Eurostat, the euro area annual inflation rate fell to -0.1% in September 2015 against 0.1% in August 2015.

According to the Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía (INEGI), Mexico’s industrial production fell by 0.5% in November 2015.

With an easing in the service sector, Spain’s unemployment rose by 82.3 thousand in October against a rise of 26.1 thousand in September. This is the highest since October 2013.

With a drop in consumer confidence, the iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF (EWZ) and the Direxion Daily Brazil Bull 3X ETF (BRZU) were down 0.36% and 0.89%, respectively, as of December 14.

Manufacturing activity accounts for ~18% of Mexico’s GDP. Mexico’s manufacturing PMI declined by 0.6 points to 52.4 in December, compared to 53.0 in November 2015.

According to the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport, Japanese housing starts fell 1.3% in December YoY as compared to a rise of 1.7% in November.

The consumer confidence index fell by 8.7 points to 90.4 in November 2015 compared to the upwardly revised level of 99.1 in October 2015. It was well below the consensus estimate of 99.6.

With an increase in final demand services, the producer price index for final demand, or PPI-FD, rose by 0.3% in November.

According to Markit, Germany’s manufacturing PMI rose to 53.2 in December 2015, compared to its November level of 52.9 level.

According to Eurostat, the Eurozone’s annual inflation stood at 0.1% in October, compared to -0.1% in September 2015.

The industrial production in the United Kingdom rose by 1.7% in October. During the month, three of the four main sectors increased.

With the continuous decline in export prices, it is evident that the rising dollar is hampering the US competitiveness in the foreign market.

According to the Institute for Supply Management, or ISM, the manufacturing PMI came in at 48.2 in December—a decline of 0.4 points from the November reading of 48.6.

Equity markets favor upbeat consumer sentiment reports. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment final index fell to 85.7 in September, compared to August’s reading of 91.9.

Mortgage applications increased 25.5% for the week ending October 2, 2015 against a decrease of -6.7% in the previous week.

US existing home sales dipped 4.8% to 5.31 million in August, which is below the consensus estimate of 5.50 million.

One of the important coincident indicators, initial jobless claims reports provide valuable insight into the current labor market conditions.

According to the US Census Bureau, the goods and services deficit was $40.8 billion in September, down $7.2 billion from a revised $48.0 billion in August.

According to the NFIB, the small business optimism index remained unchanged at 96.1 in October. The reading was below the consensus estimate of 96.4.

According to the National Association of Home Builders (or NAHB), the housing market index (or HMI) rose to 64 in October as compared to 61 in September 2015.

According to the University of Michigan, the consumer sentiment preliminary index fell to 90.7 in February—compared to 92.0 in January 2016.

The manufacturing sector accounts for about 12% of the US economy. The manufacturing PMI was 48.2 in January—a rise of 0.2 points from December.

India accounts for about 2.7% of the world’s gross domestic product (or GDP), and manufacturing activity accounts for ~17% of India’s GDP.

The Italian economy contributes about 3.0% toward global gross domestic product, and the manufacturing sector accounts for 15% of the country’s economy.

In-line with the flash estimate, the Eurozone’s manufacturing PMI (purchasing manufacturers’ index) stood at 52.3 in January 2016.

The US economy contributes about 25.4% toward global gross domestic product, and the manufacturing sector accounts for one-tenth of the country’s economy.

According to JPMorgan Chase and Markit, the global manufacturing PMI (purchasing managers’ index) rose slightly to 50.9 in January 2016.

The target inflation rate set by the B0J (Bank of Japan) stands at 2.0%. However, the December inflation is much lower than the target inflation rate.

With increasing home prices, builders might increase the home supply. Due to lower mortgage rates, more customers could be attracted to the housing sector.

With the reading above neutral, the Eurozone continued its upturn in business activity. Though at a 12-month low, the services PMI rose to 53.6 in January

The increase in China’s retail sales was mainly due to an increase of 36.6% in sales of communication appliances, followed by increases in building materials, office supplies, and furniture.

The November business inventories to sales ratio stood at 1.4, compared with 1.3 in November 2014.

With improved consumer sentiment, there may be greater consumer spending in the economy, which may translate into faster economic growth.

According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the PPI-FD (producer price index for final demand) moved down 1.0% in December, year-over-year.

According to the National Institute of Statistics (Istat), Italy’s December inflation rate is expected to remain unchanged at 0.1% on a year-over-year (or YoY) basis.

According to Germany’s Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), Germany’s December inflation rate is expected to come in at 0.3% on a YoY (year-over-year) basis as compared to 0.4% in November 2015.

Brazil accounts for ~2.1% of the world’s GDP, and its manufacturing activity accounts for ~11% of Brazil’s GDP. Brazil’s manufacturing PMI increased by 1.8 points to 45.6 in December.

According to Markit, Spain’s manufacturing PMI increased to 53.0 in December, a decline of 0.1 points from November’s reading of 53.1.

With a sharp fall in new orders, the Chicago PMI (purchasing managers’ Index) fell 5.8 points to 42.9 in December, as compared to 48.7 in November 2015.

China’s non-manufacturing PMI (purchasing managers’ index) rose by 0.8 points to 54.4 in December as against 53.6 in November 2015.

According to Japan’s Ministry of Internal Affairs & Communications, the unemployment rate rose to 3.3% in November 2015, as compared to 3.1% in October 2015 and 3.5% in November 2014.