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Antero Resources: What Do the Moving Averages Suggest?

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Antero Resources’ implied volatility

On May 30, Antero Resources (AR) had an implied volatility of 56.2%, which was ~7.% higher than its 15-day average. On the same day, other natural gas–weighted stocks including Southwestern Energy (SWN) and EQT (EQT) had implied volatilities of 59.8% and 42.3%, respectively.

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Price forecast

On May 31–June 7, Antero Resources’ stock prices are expected to close between $6.12 and $6.98 68% of the time. The forecast is based on Antero Resources’ implied volatility of 56.2% and assumes a normal distribution of prices. On May 30, Antero Resources closed at $6.55.

Moving averages

On May 17, Antero Resources stock broke below its 20-day moving average after eight trading sessions. Gradually, the gap widened with a fall in oil prices after the IEA reduced the oil demand growth forecast for 2019.

On May 30, Antero Resources closed 12.7%, 18.2%, 25.6%, and 47% below its 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, respectively. On the same day, Antero Resources’ 50-day moving average was 35.2% lower than its 200-day moving average. In technical terms, the crossover is called a “death cross.” Usually, a death cross is followed by an upswing in prices. The above graph shows the downturn in Antero Resources’ stock prices after it 50-day moving average broke below its 100-day moving average in September 2018.

On May 30, natural gas’s 50-day moving average was 15% lower than its 200-day moving average. On the same day, US crude oil’s 50-day moving average was 3% higher than its 200-day moving average. In the last quarter, Antero Resources operated with a production mix of ~71% in natural gas and 28.9% in commodities linked to oil prices.

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