Hess’s implied volatility
On March 27, Hess Corporation’s (HES) implied volatility was 34.7%, ~4% higher than its 15-day average. On the same day, Apache Corporation (APA) and Devon Energy (DVN) had implied volatilities of 34.8% and 34.6%, respectively.
From March 28 to April 4, 68.0% of the time, Hess is expected to close between $57.8 and $62.7. This forecast is based on Hess’s implied volatility of 34.7% and assumes a normal distribution of prices. On March 27, Hess closed at $60.26.
On March 26, Hess stock closed above its 200-day moving average. In the last few trading sessions, its stock price has struggled near the 200-day moving average level. On March 27, Hess closed 5%, 9.7%, 13.7%, and 2.5% above its 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, respectively.
However, on the same day, Hess’s 50-day moving average was 6.2% lower than its 200-day moving average. In technical terms, the crossover is called a “death cross.” Usually, a death cross is followed by more weakness. The difference between Hess’s 50-day moving average and its 200-day moving average has contracted to the lowest value since December 21.
On March 27, natural gas’s 50-day moving average was 9.2% lower than its 200-day moving average. On the same day, US crude oil’s 50-day moving average was 10.3% lower than its 200-day moving average. In the last quarter, Hess operated with a production mix of ~55.7% in oil and 31.5% in natural gas.