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Sarepta or Amarin: Who’s Expected to Post Faster Revenue Growth?

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Revenue guidance

In its fourth-quarter earnings conference call, Sarepta Therapeutics (SRPT) guided for fiscal 2019 revenues in the range of $365 million to $375 million, a YoY rise of 21% to 25%. This forecast is based only on the anticipated uptake of EXONDYS in fiscal 2019. The guidance doesn’t account for the revenue contribution of Golodirsen, in case this PMO (phosphorodiamidate morpholino oligomer) based RNA therapy secures FDA approval.

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According to the company’s fourth-quarter earnings conference call, some Medicaid states have been denying coverage for Exondys, especially for older or non-ambulatory patients, due to the drug’s FDA approval under the accelerated approval pathway. While the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services warned states against this behavior, this trend has been slowing the overall uptake of Exondys.

In its fourth-quarter earnings press release, Amarin (AMRN) has guided for fiscal 2019 revenues of $350 million, a YoY increase of more than 50%. The company also anticipates significant quarterly revenue volatility in fiscal 2019. To know more about Amarin’s revenue performance in fiscal 2018, please read Vascepa Demand Drove Amarin’s Revenue in Fiscal 2018.

Wall Street’s projections

Wall Street analysts have projected Sarepta Therapeutics’ revenues to be $395.55 million, $611.37 million, and $1,101.00 million, for fiscal 2019, fiscal 2020, and fiscal 2021, respectively. These projections imply a YoY revenue change of 31.40%, 54.56%, and 80.02% for fiscal 2019, fiscal 2020, and fiscal 2021, respectively.

On the other hand, Wall Street analysts have projected Amarin’s revenues to rise 58.18% YoY to $362.57 million in fiscal 2019, 56.61% YoY to $567.80 million in fiscal 2020, and 44.53% YoY to $820.63 million in fiscal 2021.

Sarepta Therapeutics is expected to report higher absolute revenues as well as a higher revenue growth rate as compared to Amarin from fiscal 2019 to fiscal 2021.

Next, we’ll discuss EPS projections for Sarepta Therapeutics and Amarin in fiscal 2019.

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