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Is AbbVie or Celgene Expected to Report Faster Revenue Growth?

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Revenue guidance for 2019

On its fourth-quarter earnings conference call, AbbVie (ABBV) projected a 1% YoY (year-over-year) operational revenue growth rate and a 1% YoY negative impact of foreign exchange in 2019.

On its fourth-quarter earnings conference call, Celgene (CELG) projected revenues of $17 billion–$17.2 billion for 2019, a YoY rise of 12% at the midpoint, and $19 billion–$20 billion for 2020, a YoY rise of 14.04% at the midpoint.

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On January 3, Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY) issued a press release announcing that it had entered into a definitive agreement to acquire Celgene for a total consideration of $74 billion. While the deal is expected to close in the third quarter of 2019, it’s still subject to the approval of both companies’ shareholders as well as the fulfillment of certain regulatory requirements. In this scenario, Celgene’s guidance numbers, as well as Wall Street’s projections, are highlighting the growth potential of a stand-alone Celgene.

Although AbbVie and Celgene are both facing generic erosion pressures for their lead drugs, Humira and Revlimid, respectively, the latter has forecast a much stronger revenue growth trajectory for future years.

Wall Street’s projections

Analysts expect AbbVie’s revenue to fall 1.65% YoY to $7.80 billion in the first quarter but to rise 0.45% YoY to $32.88 billion in 2019, 5.51% YoY to $34.69 billion in 2020, and 6.14% YoY to $36.83 billion in 2021.

Analysts expect Celgene’s revenue to rise 14.08% YoY to $4.04 billion in the first quarter, 11.86% YoY to $17.09 billion in 2019, 12.69% YoY to $19.26 billion in 2020, and 12.44% YoY to $21.66 billion in 2021.

Although AbbVie’s absolute revenue is higher than Celgene’s, analysts expect the latter to grow its revenue more quickly until 2021.

Next, we’ll discuss EPS projections for AbbVie and Celgene in 2019.

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