Analyzing Chevron’s Stock Returns



Chevron stock returns

In the previous part, we discussed the expectations for Chevron’s (CVX) segmental earnings in the fourth quarter. Now, we’ll evaluate Chevron’s stock performance before its fourth-quarter earnings are released. Since December 14, Chevron stock has declined. We’ll compare Chevron’s stock returns with the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), which closely resembles the S&P 500 Index, and WTI, which represents the benchmark oil.

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Chevron stock, oil prices, and markets in the past month

Oil prices have been volatile in the past month. On December 14–24, the prices of WTI crude oil fell 16.9% due to concerns about the global oversupply of crude oil. Equity markets fell during the same period. SPY fell 10% on December 14–24. Chevron stock declined 11.3% during the same period.

Since December 24, oil prices have risen 18.8%. OPEC’s production cuts have impacted oil prices. Easing trade tension between the US and China have supported oil prices. Since December 24, equity markets have also risen. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), a broader market indicator, has increased 9.8% since December 24. Chevron stock has risen 10.6% since December 24.

In the past month, Chevron stock has decreased 1.9%, WTI has decreased 1.3%, and SPY has decreased 1.2%. Chevron stock, oil prices, and equity markets cut their previous losses and ended with marginal declines.

Peers’ performance

Chevron’s peers ExxonMobil (XOM), Total (TOT), and PetroChina (PTR) also have fallen 5.2%, 0.1%, and 8.4%, respectively, since December 14. However, BP (BP), Petrobras (PBR), and YPF (YPF) have risen 4.6%, 14.4%, and 1.5%, respectively, during the same period.

Next, we’ll discuss Chevron price forecast range until its earnings release.


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