What Total’s Moving Averages Suggest


Dec. 28 2018, Published 1:17 p.m. ET

Total’s moving averages in the current quarter

In the previous part, we saw that Total (TOT) stock has fallen 21% in the current quarter. Now let’s look at Total’s moving average trend in the quarter.

In the current quarter, Total stock has fallen due to a steep decline in oil prices and equity markets. When Total posted better-than-expected third-quarter earnings, the downfall paused briefly. However, Total stock’s fall has pressured its 50 DMA (day moving average) in the quarter. Total’s 200 DMA stood almost flat in the quarter.

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Total’s 50 DMA has declined 10% in the quarter. Total’s 50 DMA has broken below its 200 DMA at the end of November. Total’s 50 DMA, which stood 4% above its 200 DMA at the start of the fourth quarter, currently stands 6% below its 200 DMA. When a shorter-term DMA breaks below a longer-term DMA, it is considered to be a technically bearish sign.

Going forward, only a steep and consistent rise in Total stock could push its 50 DMA above its 200 DMA, which would then be a technically bullish sign.

Peers’ moving averages

YPF (YPF), ENI (E), and Suncor Energy’s (SU) 50 DMAs are 13%, 8%, and 12%, respectively, below their 200 DMAs. Also, PetroChina’s (PTR) 50 DMA stands 3% below its 200 DMA.

The SPDR S&P 500 ETF’s 50 DMA stands 2% below its 200 DMA, while the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF’s 50 DMA just broke below its 200 DMA.

In the next part, we’ll estimate Total’s stock price range until the end of the quarter on December 31.


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