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Forecasting CHK’s Stock Range Forecast Using Implied Volatility

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Implied volatility in CHK

The current implied volatility for Chesapeake Energy stock (CHK) is ~60%, ~3.3% higher than its 15-day average of 58%. Meanwhile, the Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) has an implied volatility of ~19.3%, 4% higher than its 15-day average of ~18.5%.

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Stock price forecast: CHK stock

Assuming a normal distribution of stock prices with a standard deviation of one, based on Chesapeake Energy’s implied volatility of ~60.2%, we can estimate that the stock could close between $4.80 and $5.68 at the end of the week. Chesapeake Energy stock should stay within this range ~68% of the time.

In comparison, peer Antero Resources (AR) has a stock range of $20.00–$21.88, based on implied volatility of 32.54%. Cabot Oil & Gas (COG) has a stock range of $22.35–$24.69, based on implied volatility of 35.81%. And EQT Corporation (EQT) has a stock price range of $52.07–$56.83, based on 31.5% implied volatility.

In comparison, XLE is likely to close between $72.79 and $76.79, based on implied volatility of ~19.3%.

Next in this series, we’ll look at what analysts recommend for Chesapeake Energy stock.

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